世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private)--which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high.) The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases.

Growth in a Time of Debt

Economics Of Discrimination

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Growth in a time of debt

We study credit card rewards as an ideal laboratory to quantify redistribution between consumers in retail financial markets. Comparing cards with and without rewards, we find that, regardless of income, sophisticated individuals profit from reward credit cards at the expense of naive consumers. To probe the underlying mechanisms, we exploit bank-initiated account limit increases at the card level and show that reward cards induce more spending, leaving naive consumers with higher unpaid balances. Naive consumers also follow a sub-optimal balance-matching heuristic when repaying their credit cards, incurring higher costs. Banks incentivize the use of reward cards by offering lower interest rates than on comparable cards without rewards. We estimate an aggregate annual redistribution of $15 billion from less to more educated, poorer to richer, and high to low minority areas, widening existing disparities.

Who Pays For Your Rewards? Redistribution in the Credit Card Market

The finance-growth literature argues that institutional constraints in developing countries impede financial intermediation and monetary policy transmission. Recent studies using aggregate data document a weak bank lending channel. For identification, we instead exploit Uganda's super- visory credit register, with loan applications and rates, and unanticipated variation in monetary policy. A monetary tightening strongly reduces credit supply - increasing loan application rejections and tightening volume and rates - especially for banks with more leverage and sovereign debt exposure (even within the same borrower-period). There are spillovers on inflation and eco- nomic activity, especially in more financially-developed areas, including on commercial building, trade, and social unrest.

Financial Development and Monetary Policy: Loan Applications, Rates, and Real Effects

Microsavings contribute to smooth consumption, face emergencies and increase welfare of poor households and to empower and foster investment opportunities for poor women. We take advantage of an original survey submitted to 98 Bangladeshi women member of Hitaishi, a small Dhaka-based microfinance institution (MFI), to analyze the determinants and the effects of voluntary microsavings for poor households. The analysis of saving strategies confirms that the poor are financially sophisticated and use several different (formal and informal) savings devices. Different econometric exercises show that time inconsistency play a key role in women's attitude to voluntary save, which increases also with MFI membership. Distinctive patterns emerge in the choice of formal and informal savings institutions. We also find that the capacity to cover unexpected expenditures and over-indebtedness are less likely to occur among voluntary savers.

Can the Poor Save More? Evidence from Bangladesh

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the issue of nonlinearities (debt thresholds) in both the cross-country and within-country dimensions, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. We find some support for a nonlinear relationship between debt and long-run growth across countries, but no evidence for common debt thresholds within countries over time.

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Andrea F. Presbitero

Papers

Who Pays For Your Rewards? Redistribution in the Credit Card Market

Financial Development and Monetary Policy: Loan Applications, Rates, and Real Effects

Can the Poor Save More? Evidence from Bangladesh

This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth1

Public Debt Management and Private Financial Development