世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private)--which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high.) The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases.

Growth in a Time of Debt

Economics Of Discrimination

/pdf/growth-in-a-time-of-debt-5a74d3utls.pdf

Growth in a time of debt

We examine trends in bank competition since the early 2000s. The Lerner index—arguably the most commonly used measure—shows evidence of a marked increase in market power in advanced economies, especially after the global financial crisis. But other frequently used indicators of banking sector competition seem much more muted. We show that the significant drop in policy rates that occurred in the aftermath of the crisis could explain the seeming disconnect. Adjusting the Lerner index for the impact of policy rates reveals that market power has been fairly constant in advanced economies—consistent with the other signals and similar to the pattern observed in emerging markets.

https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2021/English/wpiea2021149-print-pdf.ashx

When They Go Low, We Go High? Measuring Bank Market Power in a Low-for-Long Environment

This paper presents a critical approach to the policy debate about external debt sustainability and debt relief in the High Indebted Poor countries (HIPC). The authors look at the different approaches to and models of debt sustainability and claim that a realistic evaluation of this issue requires the use of the fully-fledged government budget constraint, which includes not only the external debt, but also the domestic debt, as well as the balance of payments and the exchange rates. The authors describe the macroeconomic effects of the IMF-World Bank HIPC Initiative, highlighting some of its theoretical limits; the Initiative could not guarantee ex ante external debt sustainability, except by chance. A new operational framework - that takes into account the overall government budget constraint and the feedback of debt relief on economic growth - and a stronger commitment by advanced economies to open up their agricultural markets to support these countries, are required.

Sustainability and External Debt Reduction in Poor Countries

The aim of this paper is to empirically evaluate the impact of international outsourcing of materials and services and of R&D expenditures on wages of skilled and unskilled workers in Italian industry during the period 1985 i 1997, merging an administrative data set on workers’ wages with data on imported inputs from Italian input-output tables and from OECD data on R&D .Our results suggest that R&D intensity has a (negligible) positive impact on real wages, while the fragmentation of production is responsible for increasing wage disparities, because it lowers the wages of Blue Collars, leaving unchanged or raising the remunerations of White Collars.

/pdf/international-outsourcing-r-d-and-the-evolution-of-wages-the-gct174o8y3.pdf

International Outsourcing, R & D and the Evolution of Wages: the Case of Italian Industry

The global financial crisis, the weakening role of the dollar and the increasing importance of China in the global arena are calling for a reform of the international monetary system (IMS) in the direction of a greater multilateralism. We agree with the necessity to reform the IMS and we advance a proposal based on a greater role of the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), focusing on the potential benefits that a new monetary order could brings to Low-Income Countries (LICs). Given their extreme vulnerability to external shocks and their dependence on the exchange rate vis-vis the US dollar, poor countries would benefit from the creation of a more stable multi-currency monetary system. The new SDRs will created exogenously - with a disproportionate allocation to LICs -, but also endogenously, through the substitution account and the overdraft facility. Finally, we discuss the superiority of this proposal in the context of the current foreign assistance framework.

Low-Income Countries Vulnerabilities and the Need for an SDR-Based International Monetary System

The importance of history, culture, and biogeography in shaping current institutions and the long-run process of economic development is the subject of an important and growing field of research, attracting prominent scholars from different backgrounds. This special issue brings together contributions that investigate both theoretically and empirically the potential mechanisms that mediate the link between institutional and economic development.

/pdf/introduction-to-the-rei-special-issue-the-role-of-history-2b2kkvy0zt.pdf

Andrea F. Presbitero

Papers

When They Go Low, We Go High? Measuring Bank Market Power in a Low-for-Long Environment

Sustainability and External Debt Reduction in Poor Countries

International Outsourcing, R & D and the Evolution of Wages: the Case of Italian Industry

Low-Income Countries Vulnerabilities and the Need for an SDR-Based International Monetary System

Introduction to the REI Special Issue: "The Role of History, Biogeography, and Institutions for Comparative Development"