Showing papers by "Anne Chao published in 2012"

Models and estimators linking individual-based and sample-based rarefaction, extrapolation and comparison of assemblages

Abstract: Aims In ecology and conservation biology, the number of species counted in a biodiversity study is a key metric but is usually a biased underestimate of total species richness because many rare species are not detected. Moreover, comparing species richness among sites or samples is a statistical challenge because the observed number of species is sensitive to the number of individuals counted or the area sampled. For individual-based data, we treat a single, empirical sample of species abundances from an investigator-defined species assemblage or community as a reference point for two estimation objectives under two sampling models: estimating the expected number of species (and its unconditional variance) in a random sample of (i) a smaller number of individuals (multinomial model) or a smaller area sampled (Poisson model) and (ii) a larger number of individuals or a larger area sampled. For sample-based incidence (presence–absence) data, under a Bernoulli product model, we treat a single set of species incidence frequencies as the reference point to estimate richness for smaller and larger numbers of sampling units. Methods The first objective is a problem in interpolation that we address with classical rarefaction (multinomial model) and Coleman rarefaction (Poisson model) for individual-based data and with sample-based rarefaction (Bernoulli product model) for incidence frequencies. The second is a problem in extrapolation that we address with sampling-theoretic predictors for the number of species in a larger sample (multinomial model), a larger area (Poisson model) or a larger number of sampling units (Bernoulli product model), based on an estimate of asymptotic species richness. Although published methods exist for many of these objectives, we bring them together here with some new estimators under a unified statistical and notational framework. This novel integration of mathematically distinct approaches allowed us to link interpolated (rarefaction) curves and extrapolated curves to plot a unified species accumulation curve for empirical examples. We provide new, unconditional variance estimators for classical, individual-based rarefaction and for Coleman rarefaction, long missing from the toolkit of biodiversity measurement. We illustrate these methods with datasets for tropical beetles, tropical trees and tropical ants.

Coverage‐based rarefaction and extrapolation: standardizing samples by completeness rather than size

Abstract: We propose an integrated sampling, rarefaction, and extrapolation methodology to compare species richness of a set of communities based on samples of equal completeness (as measured by sample coverage) instead of equal size. Traditional rarefaction or extrapolation to equal-sized samples can misrepresent the relationships between the richnesses of the communities being compared because a sample of a given size may be sufficient to fully characterize the lower diversity community, but insufficient to characterize the richer community. Thus, the traditional method systematically biases the degree of differences between community richnesses. We derived a new analytic method for seamless coverage-based rarefaction and extrapolation. We show that this method yields less biased comparisons of richness between communities, and manages this with less total sampling effort. When this approach is integrated with an adaptive coverage-based stopping rule during sampling, samples may be compared directly without rarefaction, so no extra data is taken and none is thrown away. Even if this stopping rule is not used during data collection, coverage-based rarefaction throws away less data than traditional size-based rarefaction, and more efficiently finds the correct ranking of communities according to their true richnesses. Several hypothetical and real examples demonstrate these advantages.

Proposing a resolution to debates on diversity partitioning

Abstract: There have been intense debates about the decomposition of regional diversity (gamma) into its within-community component (alpha) and between-community component (beta). Although a recent Ecology Forum achieved consensus in the use of "numbers equivalents" (Hill numbers) as the proper choice of diversity measure, three related major issues were still left unresolved. (1) What is the precise meaning of the "independence" or "statistical independence" of alpha diversity and beta diversity? (2) Which partitioning (additive vs. multiplicative) should be used for a given application? (3) What is the proper formula for alpha diversity, as there are two formulas in the literature? This paper proposes a possible resolution to each of these issues. For the first issue, we clarify the definitions of "independence" and "statistical independence" from two perspectives so that confusion about this issue can be cleared up. We also discuss the causes of dependence, so that the dependence relationship between any two diversity components in both partitioning schemes can be rigorously justified by theory and also intuitively understood by simulation. For the second issue, both multiplicative and additive beta diversities based on Hill numbers are useful measures and quantify different aspects of communities. However, neither can be directly applied to compare relative compositional similarity or differentiation across multiple regions with different numbers of communities because multiplicative beta diversity depends on the number of communities, and additive beta diversity additionally depends on alpha (equivalently, on gamma). Such dependences should be removed. We propose transformations to remove these dependences, and we show that the transformed multiplicative beta and additive beta both lead to the same classes of measures, which are always in a range of [0, 1] and thus can be used to compare relative similarity or differentiation among communities across multiple regions. These similarity measures include multiple-community generalizations of the Sorenson, Jaccard, Horn, and Morisita-Horn measures. For the third issue, we present some observations including a finding about which alpha formula produces independent alpha and beta components. These may help to resolve the choice of a proper formula for alpha diversity. Some related issues are also briefly discussed.

Estimating the richness of a population when the maximum number of classes is fixed: a nonparametric solution to an archaeological problem.

Abstract: Background Estimating assemblage species or class richness from samples remains a challenging, but essential, goal. Though a variety of statistical tools for estimating species or class richness have been developed, they are all singly-bounded: assuming only a lower bound of species or classes. Nevertheless there are numerous situations, particularly in the cultural realm, where the maximum number of classes is fixed. For this reason, a new method is needed to estimate richness when both upper and lower bounds are known. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we introduce a new method for estimating class richness: doubly-bounded confidence intervals (both lower and upper bounds are known). We specifically illustrate our new method using the Chao1 estimator, rarefaction, and extrapolation, although any estimator of asymptotic richness can be used in our method. Using a case study of Clovis stone tools from the North American Lower Great Lakes region, we demonstrate that singly-bounded richness estimators can yield confidence intervals with upper bound estimates larger than the possible maximum number of classes, while our new method provides estimates that make empirical sense. Conclusions/Significance Application of the new method for constructing doubly-bound richness estimates of Clovis stone tools permitted conclusions to be drawn that were not otherwise possible with singly-bounded richness estimates, namely, that Lower Great Lakes Clovis Paleoindians utilized a settlement pattern that was probably more logistical in nature than residential. However, our new method is not limited to archaeological applications. It can be applied to any set of data for which there is a fixed maximum number of classes, whether that be site occupancy models, commercial products (e.g. athletic shoes), or census information (e.g. nationality, religion, age, race).

Specimen-Based Modeling, Stopping Rules, and the Extinction of the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker

Abstract: Assessing species survival status is an essential component of conservation programs. We devised a new statistical method for estimating the probability of species persistence from the temporal sequence of collection dates of museum specimens. To complement this approach, we developed quantitative stopping rules for terminating the search for missing or allegedly extinct species. These stopping rules are based on survey data for counts of co-occurring species that are encountered in the search for a target species. We illustrate both these methods with a case study of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), long assumed to have become extinct in the United States in the 1950s, but reportedly rediscovered in 2004. We analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of 239 geo-referenced museum specimens collected throughout the southeastern United States from 1853 to 1932 and estimated the probability of persistence in 2011 as <6.4 × 10 −5 , with a probable extinction date no later than 1980. From an analysis of avian census data (counts of individuals) at 4 sites where searches for the woodpecker were conducted since 2004, we estimated that at most 1-3 undetected species may remain in 3 sites (one each in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida). At a fourth site on the Congaree River (South Carolina), no singletons (species represented by one observation) remained after 15,500 counts of individual birds, indicating that the number of species already recorded (56) is unlikely to increase with additional survey effort. Collectively, these results suggest there is virtually no chance the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is currently extant within its historical range in the southeastern United States. The results also suggest conservation resources devoted to its rediscovery and recovery could be better allocated to other species. The methods we describe for estimating species extinction dates and the probability of persistence are generally applicable to other species for which sufficient museum collections and field census results are available.

Nonparametric lower bounds for species richness and shared species richness under sampling without replacement.

Abstract: Summary A number of species richness estimators have been developed under the model that individuals (or sampling units) are sampled with replacement. However, if sampling is done without replacement so that no sampled unit can be repeatedly observed, then the traditional estimators for sampling with replacement tend to overestimate richness for relatively high-sampling fractions (ratio of sample size to the total number of sampling units) and do not converge to the true species richness when the sampling fraction approaches one. Based on abundance data or replicated incidence data, we propose a nonparametric lower bound for species richness in a single community and also a lower bound for the number of species shared by multiple communities. Our proposed lower bounds are derived under very general sampling models. They are universally valid for all types of species abundance distributions and species detection probabilities. For abundance data, individuals’ detectabilities are allowed to be heterogeneous among species. For replicated incidence data, the selected sampling units (e.g., quadrats) need not be fully censused and species can be spatially aggregated. All bounds converge correctly to the true parameters when the sampling fraction approaches one. Real data sets are used for illustration. We also test the proposed bounds by using subsamples generated from large real surveys or censuses, and their performance is compared with that of some previous estimators.