The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

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Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

Protecting the world’s freshwater resources requires diagnosing threats over a broad range of scales, from global to local. Here we present the first worldwide synthesis to jointly consider human and biodiversity perspectives on water security using a spatial framework that quantifies multiple stressors and accounts for downstream impacts. We find that nearly 80% of the world’s population is exposed to high levels of threat to water security. Massive investment in water technology enables rich nations to offset high stressor levels without remedying their underlying causes, whereas less wealthy nations remain vulnerable. A similar lack of precautionary investment jeopardizes biodiversity, with habitats associated with 65% of continental discharge classified as moderately to highly threatened. The cumulative threat framework offers a tool for prioritizing policy and management responses to this crisis, and underscores the necessity of limiting threats at their source instead of through costly remediation of symptoms in order to assure global water security for both humans and freshwater biodiversity.

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Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity

This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability

Over the past few decades, a new form of governance has emerged to replace adversarial and managerial modes of policy making and implementation. Collaborative governance, as it has come to be known, brings public and private stakeholders together in collective forums with public agencies to engage in consensus-oriented decision making. In this article, we conduct a meta-analytical study of the existing literature on collaborative governance with the goal of elaborating a contingency model of collaborative governance. After reviewing 137 cases of collaborative governance across a range of policy sectors, we identify critical variables that will influence whether or not this mode of governance will produce successful collaboration. These variables include the prior history of conflict or cooperation, the incentives for stakeholders to participate, power and resources imbalances, leadership, and institutional design. We also identify a series of factors that are crucial within the collaborative process itself. These factors include face-to-face dialogue, trust building, and the development of commitment and shared understanding. We found that a virtuous cycle of collaboration tends to develop when collaborative forums focus on ‘‘small wins’’ that deepen trust, commitment, and shared understanding. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of our contingency model for practitioners and for future research on collaborative governance. Over the last two decades, a new strategy of governing called ‘‘collaborative governance’’ has developed. This mode of governance brings multiple stakeholders together in common forums with public agencies to engage in consensus-oriented decision making. In this article, we conduct a meta-analytical study of the existing literature on collaborative governance with the goal of elaborating a general model of collaborative governance. The ultimate goal is to develop a contingency approach to collaboration that can highlight conditions under which collaborative governance will be more or less effective as an

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Collaborative governance in theory and practice

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Making water productivity operational : A concept of agricultural water productivity exemplified at a wheat-maize cropping pattern in the North China plain

Editorial special issue: The Nexus of water, energy and food – An environmental governance perspective

Responses to environmental and societal challenges for our unstable earth

Resource management problems have become more and more complex. The traditional approach to solving isolated environmental problems with technological fixes and end-of-pipe solutions has started to shift towards a more thoughtful and integrated attitude. Hence it becomes more and more important to develop appropriate means for representing the human dimension in integrated models and in the development of resource management regimes. This involves the development of integrated approaches to problem solving and thus to include as well stakeholder perspectives. Stakeholder should be included in the process of developing and adopting any resource management plan. In order to improve stakeholder-based policy design and modelling processes innovation and research is required in linking analytical methods and participatory approaches. Factual knowledge and analytical techniques have to be combined with local knowledge and subjective perceptions of the various stakeholder groups. Agent based modelling seems to be a particularly promising approach to include the human dimension into integrated assessment models and processes and thus into innovative approaches towards developing more sustainable and enduring resource management regimes.

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Agent Based Simulation in Integrated Assessment and Resources Management

The notion of a water–energy–food (WEF) nexus was introduced to encourage a more holistic perspective on the sustainable development of natural resources. Most attention has been directed at identifying potential synergies and trade-offs among sectors that could be addressed with improved technologies and management. The governance of the WEF nexus more broadly has received comparatively little attention, and the importance of scale in space and time has been largely ignored. Inspired by scholarship on multi-level governance in individual sectors, this paper identifies four scale-related governance challenges in the WEF nexus, namely: (1) scalar fit, which arises when planning and operating procedures work at different levels along the scales of space and time in different sectors; (2) scalar strategies, wherever the levels at which actors have influence and in which action takes place are contested and negotiated; (3) institutional interplay, where rules and norms in different sectors influence each other at different levels; (4) scalar uncertainty, arising out of the complexity of multi-level and multi-scale interactions. The relevance of these four challenges is illustrated with case studies from developed and developing countries. These examples show the importance of considering multiple levels and scales when assessing the likely effectiveness of WEF nexus governance mechanisms or proposals. The cases underline the need to pay close attention to issues of power, contestation, and negotiation, in addition to the analysis of institutional design. Thus, this paper recommends that nexus governance efforts and proposals be scrutinized for scale assumptions. The four identified challenges offer a suitable starting point for diagnosis.

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Claudia Pahl-Wostl

Papers

Making water productivity operational : A concept of agricultural water productivity exemplified at a wheat-maize cropping pattern in the North China plain

Editorial special issue: The Nexus of water, energy and food – An environmental governance perspective

Responses to environmental and societal challenges for our unstable earth

Agent Based Simulation in Integrated Assessment and Resources Management

Scale-related governance challenges in the water–energy–food nexus: toward a diagnostic approach