Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

This paper gives an overview of the development of the field of Knowledge Engineering over the last 15 years. We discuss the paradigm shift from a transfer view to a modeling view and describe two approaches which considerably shaped research in Knowledge Engineering: Role-limiting Methods and Generic Tasks. To illustrate various concepts and methods which evolved in recent years we describe three modeling frameworks: CommonKADS, MIKE and PROTEGE-II. This description is supplemented by discussing some important methodological developments in more detail: specification languages for knowledge-based systems, problem-solving methods and ontologies. We conclude by outlining the relationship of Knowledge Engineering to Software Engineering, Information Integration and Knowledge Management.

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Knowledge engineering: principles and methods

Well adapted to the loosely coupled nature of distributed interaction in large-scale applications, the publish/subscribe communication paradigm has recently received increasing attention. With systems based on the publish/subscribe interaction scheme, subscribers register their interest in an event, or a pattern of events, and are subsequently asynchronously notified of events generated by publishers. Many variants of the paradigm have recently been proposed, each variant being specifically adapted to some given application or network model. This paper factors out the common denominator underlying these variants: full decoupling of the communicating entities in time, space, and synchronization. We use these three decoupling dimensions to better identify commonalities and divergences with traditional interaction paradigms. The many variations on the theme of publish/subscribe are classified and synthesized. In particular, their respective benefits and shortcomings are discussed both in terms of interfaces and implementations.

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The many faces of publish/subscribe

The term ‘‘Internet-of-Things’’ is used as an umbrella keyword for covering various aspects related to the extension of the Internet and the Web into the physical realm, by means of the widespread deployment of spatially distributed devices with embedded identification, sensing and/or actuation capabilities. Internet-of-Things envisions a future in which digital and physical entities can be linked, by means of appropriate information and communication technologies, to enable a whole new class of applications and services. In this article, we present a survey of technologies, applications and research challenges for Internetof-Things.

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Internet of things: Vision, applications and research challenges

In this report we show how to adapt the notion of “attack surface” to formally evaluate security properties at the architectural level of design and to identify vulnerabilities in architectural designs. Further we explore the application of this metric in the context of architecture-based transformations to improve security by reducing the attack surface. These transformations are described in detail and validated with a simple experiment. The authors would like to acknowledge Pratyusa Manadhata and Jeannette Wing; without their work formalizing the attack surface metric, our work would not be possible. The authors would also like to thank the Software Engineering Institute for supporting this work. This research was supported in part by CyLab at Carnegie Mellon under grants DAAD19-02-1-0389 and W911NF-09-1-0273 from the Army Research Office.

Measuring Attack Surface in Software Architecture (CMU-ISR-11-121)

: Computers support more and more daily activities for common users, and users increasingly take their activities to different locations. Rather than being bound to a specific device, users would like to take full advantage of the computer systems accessible to them, much like they take advantage of the furniture in each physical space. However, user attention takes a heavy toll when scaling the use of computers to tasks that are constantly interrupted and resumed, and that span many locations and long periods. In this report we describe an infrastructure that provides users with easy access to their tasks as a logical unit, across multiple devices, and over time spans of years. The infrastructure handles platform and application heterogeneity, as well as dynamic adaptation to resource variations. We validate that the infrastructure's overhead is small compared to normal application startup, and that the approach scales.

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Beyond Desktop Management: Scaling Task Management in Space and Time

Two of the main paradigms used to build adaptive software employ different types of properties to capture relevant aspects of the system's run-time behavior. On the one hand, control systems consider properties that concern static aspects like stability, as well as dynamic properties that capture the transient evolution of variables such as settling time. On the other hand, self-adaptive systems consider mostly non-functional properties that capture concerns such as performance, reliability, and cost. In general, it is not easy to reconcile these two types of properties or identify under which conditions they constitute a good fit to provide run-time guarantees. There is a need of identifying the key properties in the areas of control and self-adaptation, as well as of characterizing and mapping them to better understand how they relate and possibly complement each other. In this paper, we take a first step to tackle this problem by: (1) identifying a set of key properties in control theory, (2) illustrating the formalization of some of these properties employing temporal logic languages commonly used to engineer self-adaptive software systems, and (3) illustrating how to map key properties that characterize self-adaptive software systems into control properties, leveraging their formalization in temporal logics. We illustrate the different steps of the mapping on an exemplar case in the cloud computing domain and conclude with identifying open challenges in the area.

Towards Bridging the Gap between Control and Self-Adaptive System Properties

Software architecture describes the high-level organization of a software system, and is essential both for reasoning about system properties and for implementing and evolving code This poster describes two architecture-related tools: AcmeStudio for architectural modeling and analysis, and ArchJava for ensuring consistency between architecture and implementation AcmeStudio is an architectural design tool based on Eclipse, supporting graphical and textual descriptions of software architecture as well as various forms of architectural analysis The poster shows an example of creating an architecture in Acme and checking it against the constraints of an architectural style such as pipe-and-filter ArchJava extends the Java language to include explicit architectural modeling constructs, and uses type system techniques to ensure that the implementation conforms to the architecture The poster shows how AcmeStudio can generate skeleton ArchJava code, how developers can fill in this architecture with an implementation using an Eclipse-based ArchJava IDE, and how ArchJava's type system can help the developer to maintain consistency between code and architecture

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Modeling and implementing software architecture with acme and archJava

Planning in CPSs requires temporal reasoning to handle the dynamics of the environment, including human behavior, as well as temporal constraints on system goals and durations of actions that systems and human actors may take. The discrete abstraction of time in a state space planning should have a time sampling parameter value that satisfies some relation to achieve a certain precision. In particular, the sampling period should be small enough to allow the dynamics of the problem domain to be modeled with sufficient precision. Meanwhile, in many cases, events in the far future (relative to the sampling period) may be relevant to the decision making earlier in the planning timeline; therefore, a longer planning look-ahead horizon can yield a closer-to-optimal plan. Unfortunately, planning with a uniform fine-grained discrete abstraction of time and a long look-ahead horizon is typically computationally infeasible. In this paper, we propose a multiscale temporal planning approach -- formulated as MDP planning -- to preserve the required time fidelity of the problem domain and at the same time approximate a globally optimal plan. We illustrate our approach in a middleware used to monitor large sensor networks.

David Garlan

Papers

Measuring Attack Surface in Software Architecture (CMU-ISR-11-121)

Beyond Desktop Management: Scaling Task Management in Space and Time

Towards Bridging the Gap between Control and Self-Adaptive System Properties

Modeling and implementing software architecture with acme and archJava

Multiscale time abstractions for long-range planning under uncertainty