We report the results of the statistical analysis of planetary signals discovered in MOA-II microlensing survey alert system events from 2007 to 2012. We determine the survey sensitivity as a function of planet star mass ratio, q, and projected planet star separation, s, in Einstein radius units. We find that the mass-ratio function is not a single power law, but has a change in slope at q approx.10(exp -4), corresponding to approx. 20 Stellar Mass for the median host-star mass of approx. 0.6 M. We find significant planetary signals in 23 of the 1474 alert events that are well-characterized by the MOA-II survey data alone. Data from other groups are used only to characterize planetary signals that have been identified in the MOA data alone. The distribution of mass ratios and separations of the planets found in our sample are well fit by a broken power-law model. We also combine this analysis with the previous analyses of Gould et al. and Cassan et al., bringing the total sample to 30 planets. The unbroken power-law model is disfavored with a p-value of 0.0022, which corresponds to a Bayes factor of 27 favoring the broken power-law model. These results imply that cold Neptunes are likely to be the most common type of planets beyond the snow line.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/833/2/145/pdf

The exoplanet mass-ratio function from the moa-ii survey: discovery of a break and likely peak at a neptune mass

The Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is the next NASA astrophysics flagship mission, to follow the James Webb Space Telescope. The WFIRST mission was chosen as the top-priority large space mission of the 2010 astronomy and astrophysics decadal survey in order to achieve three primary goals: to study dark energy via a wide-field imaging survey, to study exoplanets via a microlensing survey, and to enable a guest observer program. Here we assess the ability of the several WFIRST designs to achieve the goal of the microlensing survey to discover a large sample of cold, low-mass exoplanets with semimajor axes beyond roughly one astronomical unit, which are largely impossible to detect with any other technique. We present the results of a suite of simulations that span the full range of the proposed WFIRST architectures, from the original design envisioned by the decadal survey, to the current design, which utilizes a 2.4 m telescope donated to NASA. By studying such a broad range of architectures, we are able to determine the impact of design trades on the expected yields of detected exoplanets. In estimating the yields we take particular care to ensure that our assumed Galactic model predicts microlensing event rates that match observations, consider the impact that inaccuracies in the Galactic model might have on the yields, and ensure that numerical errors in light-curve computations do not bias the yields for the smallest-mass exoplanets. For the nominal baseline WFIRST design and a fiducial planet mass function, we predict that a total of ∼1400 bound exoplanets with mass greater than ∼0.1 M ⊕ should be detected, including ∼200 with mass 3 M ⊕. WFIRST should have sensitivity to planets with mass down to ∼0.02 M ⊕ , or roughly the mass of Ganymede.

/pdf/predictions-of-the-wfirst-microlensing-survey-i-bound-planet-1865n32aaf.pdf

Predictions of the WFIRST Microlensing Survey. I. Bound Planet Detection Rates

We present a statistical analysis of the first four seasons from a second-generation microlensing survey for extrasolar planets, consisting of near-continuous time coverage of 8 deg to the 2nd power of the Galactic bulge by the Optical Gravitational Lens Experiment (OGLE), Microlensing Observations in Astrophysics (MOA), and Wise microlensing surveys. During this period, 224 microlensing events were observed by all three groups. Over 12% of the events showed a deviation from single-lens microlensing, and for approx. 1/3 of those the anomaly is likely caused by a planetary companion. For each of the 224 events, we have performed numerical ray-tracing simulations to calculate the detection efficiency of possible companions as a function of companion-to-host mass ratio and separation. Accounting for the detection efficiency, we find that 55 +34 -22%of microlensed stars host a snowline planet. Moreover, we find that Neptune-mass planets are approx.10 times more common than Jupiter-mass planets. The companion-to-host mass-ratio distribution shows a deficit at q approx. 10 (exp -2), separating the distribution into two companion populations, analogous to the stellar-companion and planet populations, seen in radial-velocity surveys around solar-like stars. Our survey, however, which probes mainly lower mass stars, suggests a minimum in the distribution in the super-Jupiter mass range, and a relatively high occurrence of brown-dwarf companions.

The frequency of snowline-region planets from four-years of OGLE-MOA-Wise second-generation microlensing.

We combine Spitzer and ground-based Korea Microlensing Telescope Network microlensing observations to identify and precisely measure an Earth-mass (1.43^(+0.45)_(-0.32) M⊕) planet OGLE-2016-BLG-1195Lb at 1.16^(+0.16)_(-0.13) au orbiting a 0.078^(+0.016)_(-0.012) M⊙ ultracool dwarf. This is the lowest-mass microlensing planet to date. At 3.91^(+0.42)_(-0.46) kpc, it is the third consecutive case among the Spitzer "Galactic distribution" planets toward the Galactic bulge that lies in the Galactic disk as opposed to the bulge itself, hinting at a skewed distribution of planets. Together with previous microlensing discoveries, the seven Earth-size planets orbiting the ultracool dwarf TRAPPIST-1, and the detection of disks around young brown dwarfs, OGLE-2016-BLG-1195Lb suggests that such planets might be common around ultracool dwarfs. It therefore sheds light on the formation of both ultracool dwarfs and planetary systems at the limit of low-mass protoplanetary disks.

/pdf/an-earth-mass-planet-in-a-1-au-orbit-around-an-ultracool-1fcpvu4cm9.pdf

An Earth-mass Planet in a 1 au Orbit around an Ultracool Dwarf

We present the gravitational microlensing discovery of a 4 M {sub Uranus} planet that orbits a 0.7 M {sub ☉} star at ≈18 AU. This is the first known analog of Uranus. Similar planets, i.e., cold ice giants, are inaccessible to either radial velocity or transit methods because of the long orbital periods, while low reflected light prevents direct imaging. We discuss how similar planets may contaminate the sample of the very short microlensing events that are interpreted as free-floating planets with an estimated rate of 1.8 per main-sequence star. Moreover, the host star has a nearby stellar (or brown dwarf) companion. The projected separation of the planet is only about three times smaller than that of the companion star, suggesting significant dynamical interactions.

Triple microlens OGLE-2008-BLG-092L: binary stellar system with a circumprimary uranus-type planet

Using gravitational microlensing, we detected a cold terrestrial planet orbiting one member of a binary star system. The planet has low mass (twice Earth’s) and lies projected at ~0.8 astronomical units (AU) from its host star, about the distance between Earth and the Sun. However, the planet’s temperature is much lower,

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/345/6192/46.full.pdf

A terrestrial planet in a ~1-AU orbit around one member of a ∼15-AU binary

We present the photometry and theoretical models for a Galactic bulge microlensing event OGLE-2000-BUL-43. The event is very bright with I=13.54 mag, and has a very long time scale, t_E=156 days. The long time scale and its light curve deviation from the standard shape strongly suggest that it may be affected by the parallax effect. We show that OGLE-2000-BUL-43 is the first discovered microlensing event, in which the parallax distortion is observed over a period of 2 years. Difference Image Analysis (DIA) using the PSF matching algorithm of Alard & Lupton enabled photometry accurate to 0.5%. All photometry obtained with DIA is available electronically. Our analysis indicates that the viewing condition from a location near Jupiter will be optimal and can lead to magnifications ~ 50 around January 31, 2001. These features offer a great promise for resolving the source (a K giant) and breaking the degeneracy between the lens parameters including the mass of the lens, if the event is observed with the imaging camera on the Cassini space probe.

G. Pietrzynski

Papers

A terrestrial planet in a ~1-AU orbit around one member of a ∼15-AU binary

OGLE 2000-BUL-43: A Spectacular Ongoing Parallax Microlensing Event. Difference Image Analysis