There is, I think, something ethereal about i —the square root of minus one. I remember first hearing about it at school. It seemed an odd beast at that time—an intruder hovering on the edge of reality.

Usually familiarity dulls this sense of the bizarre, but in the case of i it was the reverse: over the years the sense of its surreal nature intensified. It seemed that it was impossible to write mathematics that described the real world in …

I and i

[신간의 별자리x] 우리/미술, 그리고 ‘슬픔의 박물관’

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation

▶ Addresses a wide range of timely environment, economic and energy topics ▶ A forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales ▶ Contributes to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated ▶ 94% of authors who answered a survey reported that they would definitely publish or probably publish in the journal again

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

The increasing interest in integrating intermittent renewable energy sources into microgrids presents major challenges from the viewpoints of reliable operation and control. In this paper, the major issues and challenges in microgrid control are discussed, and a review of state-of-the-art control strategies and trends is presented; a general overview of the main control principles (e.g., droop control, model predictive control, multi-agent systems) is also included. The paper classifies microgrid control strategies into three levels: primary, secondary, and tertiary, where primary and secondary levels are associated with the operation of the microgrid itself, and tertiary level pertains to the coordinated operation of the microgrid and the host grid. Each control level is discussed in detail in view of the relevant existing technical literature.

Trends in Microgrid Control

This Deliverable of ANEMOS.plus (Advanced Tools for the Management of Electricity Grids with Large-Scale Wind Generation) and SafeWind projects presents the state of the art in wind power forecasting. More than 380 references of journal and conference papers have been reviewed. (LN)

http://ecolo.org/documents/documents_in_english/wind-predict-ANEMOS.pdf

The state-of-the-art in short-term prediction of wind power. A literature overview

Due to the fluctuating nature of the wind resource, a wind power producer participating in a liberalized electricity market is subject to penalties related to regulation costs. Accurate forecasts of wind generation are therefore paramount for reducing such penalties and thus maximizing revenue. Despite the fact that increasing accuracy in spot forecasts may reduce penalties, this paper shows that, if such forecasts are accompanied with information on their uncertainty, i.e., in the form of predictive distributions, then this can be the basis for defining advanced strategies for market participation. Such strategies permit to further increase revenues and thus enhance competitiveness of wind generation compared to other forms of dispatchable generation. This paper formulates a general methodology for deriving optimal bidding strategies based on probabilistic forecasts of wind generation, as well as on modeling of the sensitivity a wind power producer may have to regulation costs. The benefits resulting from the application of these strategies are clearly demonstrated on the test case of the participation of a multi-MW wind farm in the Dutch electricity market over a year.

/pdf/trading-wind-generation-from-short-term-probabilistic-4a3p4lz00g.pdf

Trading Wind Generation From Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power

In this paper, an advanced model, based on recurrent high order neural networks, is developed for the prediction of the power output profile of a wind park. This model outperforms simple methods like persistence, as well as classical methods in the literature. The architecture of a forecasting model is optimised automatically by a new algorithm, that substitutes the usually applied trial-and-error method. Finally, the online implementation of the developed model into an advanced control system for the optimal operation and management of a real autonomous wind-diesel power system, is presented.

Wind power forecasting using advanced neural networks models

https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00505993/document

Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering

Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluation of model performance.This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-power prediction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated, using results from both on-shore and offshore wind farms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems.

/pdf/standardizing-the-performance-evaluation-of-short-term-wind-50qabwwm5c.pdf

Georges Kariniotakis

Papers

The state-of-the-art in short-term prediction of wind power. A literature overview

Trading Wind Generation From Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power

Wind power forecasting using advanced neural networks models

Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering

Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models: