The increasing penetration of variable-speed wind turbines in the electricity grid will result in a reduction of the number of connected conventional power plants. This will require changes in the way the grid frequency is controlled. In this letter, a method is proposed to let variable-speed wind turbines emulate inertia and support primary frequency control. The required power is obtained from the kinetic energy stored in the rotating mass of the turbine blades.

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Wind turbines emulating inertia and supporting primary frequency control

This paper describes how damage propagation can be modeled within the modules of aircraft gas turbine engines. To that end, response surfaces of all sensors are generated via a thermo-dynamical simulation model for the engine as a function of variations of flow and efficiency of the modules of interest. An exponential rate of change for flow and efficiency loss was imposed for each data set, starting at a randomly chosen initial deterioration set point. The rate of change of the flow and efficiency denotes an otherwise unspecified fault with increasingly worsening effect. The rates of change of the faults were constrained to an upper threshold but were otherwise chosen randomly. Damage propagation was allowed to continue until a failure criterion was reached. A health index was defined as the minimum of several superimposed operational margins at any given time instant and the failure criterion is reached when health index reaches zero. Output of the model was the time series (cycles) of sensed measurements typically available from aircraft gas turbine engines. The data generated were used as challenge data for the prognostics and health management (PHM) data competition at PHMpsila08.

Damage propagation modeling for aircraft engine run-to-failure simulation

http://pierrepinson.com/31761/Literature/foley2012.pdf

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

https://www.lef.wiwi.uni-due.de/fileadmin/fileupload/BWL-LEF/Seminarreihe/RWeron14_Essen.pdf

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims at explaining the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and treats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of the outperformance of one model by another.

Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a highly valuable information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. However, this additional information may be paramount for a large class of time-dependent and multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. optimal operation of combined wind-storage systems or multiple-market trading with different gate closures. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits the generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind generation that accounts for both the interdependence structure of prediction errors and the predictive distributions of wind power production. The method is based on the conversion of series of prediction errors to a multivariate Gaussian random variable, the interdependence structure of which can then be summarized by a unique covariance matrix. Such matrix is recursively estimated in order to accommodate long-term variations in the prediction error characteristics. The quality and interest of the methodology are demonstrated with an application to the test case of a multi-MW wind farm over a period of more than two years.

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From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluation of model performance.This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-power prediction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated, using results from both on-shore and offshore wind farms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems.

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Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models:

Predictions of wind power production for horizons up to 48-72 h ahead comprise a highly valuable input to the methods for the daily management or trading of wind generation. Today, users of wind power predictions are not only provided with point predictions, which are estimates of the conditional expectation of the wind generation for each look-ahead time, but also with uncertainty estimates given by probabilistic forecasts. In order to avoid assumptions on the shape of predictive distributions, these probabilistic predictions are produced from non-parametric methods, and then take the form of a single or a set of quantile forecasts. The required and desirable properties of such probabilistic forecasts are defined and a framework for their evaluation is proposed. This framework is applied for evaluating the quality of two statistical methods producing full predictive distributions from point predictions of wind power. These distributions are defined by a number of quantile forecasts with nominal proportions spanning the unit interval. The relevance and interest of the introduced evaluation framework are discussed.

Non‐parametric probabilistic forecasts of wind power: required properties and evaluation

A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time-varying regression model. In a second step, time-series models, i.e., ARMA and Holt-Winters, are applied to account for residual autocorrelation and seasonal dynamics. Empirical results are presented for out-of-sample forecasts of day-ahead prices in the Western Danish price area of Nord Pool's Elspot, during a two year period covering 2010-2011. These results clearly demonstrate the practical benefits of accounting for the complex influence of these explanatory variables.

Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

Models for wind power installations excited by transient events have been developed and verified. A number of cases have been investigated, including comparisons of simulations of a three-phase short circuit, validation with measurements of tripping of single wind turbine, islanding of a group of two wind turbines, and voltage steps caused by tripping of wind turbines and by manual transformer tap-changing. A Benchmark model is also presented, enabling the reader to test own simulation results against results obtained with models developed in EMTDC and DIgSILENT. ISBN 87-550-3030-0 ISBN 87-550-3031-9 (Internet) ISSN 0106-2840 Print: Pitney Bowes Management Services Danmark A/S, 2003

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Henrik Aa. Nielsen

Papers

From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models:

Non‐parametric probabilistic forecasts of wind power: required properties and evaluation

Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

Simulation and verification of transient events in large wind power installations