世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Statistics for Spatial Data.

Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals, of age-specific mortality in the United States from 1990 to 2065. First, the logs of the age-specific death rates are modeled as a linear function of an unobserved period-specific intensity index, with parameters depending on age. This model is fit to the matrix of U.S. death rates, 1933 to 1987, using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method; it accounts for almost all the variance over time in age-specific death rates as a group. Whereas e 0 has risen at a decreasing rate over the century and has decreasing variability, k(t) declines at a roughly constant rate and has roughly constant variability, facilitating forecasting. k(t), which indexes the intensity of mortality, is next modeled as a time series (specifically, a random walk with drift) and forecast. The method performs very well on within-sample forecasts, and the forecasts are insensitive to reductions in the length of the base period from 90 to 30 ...

https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/BCH/demography/LeeCarter_JASA_92.pdf

Modeling and forecasting U. S. mortality

Inflammaging and anti-inflammaging: A systemic perspective on aging and longevity emerged from studies in humans

https://pure.uva.nl/ws/files/3441498/3261_30170y.pdf

Socioeconomic inequalities in morbidity and mortality in western Europe

Three dimensions of the survival curve have been developed: (1) “horizontalization,” which corresponds to how long a cohort and how many survivors can live before aging-related deaths significantly decrease the proportion of survivors; (2) “verticalization,” which corresponds to how concentrated aging-related (“normal”) deaths are around the modal age at death (M); and (3) “longevity extension,” which corresponds to how far the highest normal life durations can exceed M. Our study shows that the degree of horizontalization increased relatively less than the degree of verticalization in Hong Kong from 1976 to 2001. After age normalization, the highest normal life durations moved closer to M, implying that the increase in human longevity is meeting some resistance.

/pdf/three-dimensions-of-the-survival-curve-horizontalization-4wsw0k0b6g.pdf

Three Dimensions of the Survival Curve: Horizontalization, Verticalization, and Longevity Extension

With sharp declines in infant and child mortality during the twentieth century, virtually all deaths in developed countries now occur among adults. Demographers have long been aware, however, of the great diversity of adult mortality experience within and among countries, due to a host of interactions between societal, environmental, biological and behavioural variables, the mechanisms of which, for the most part, remain elusive. The challenge for demographers, taken up by this book, is to move away form description towards explanation. The first section is concerned with the more theoretical aspects of conceptual models and frameworks for the analysis of adult mortality. The second section deals with the diversity of mortality, paying particular attention to sex, region of residence, and socio-economic status. The final section of the book draws heavily on the North American experience to consider some of the policy and programme implications necessary to reduce preventable adult mortality levels further-including government policies to control smoking and alcohol, and to promote healthful behaviour patterns, It also indicates areas of future research. _ This book is intended for demographers and epidemiologists; those involved in public health, health statistics, and health care systems.

Adult mortality in developed countries: from description to explanation.

In this article we discuss relevant data on aging, longevity, and gender with particular focus on inflammation gene polymorphisms which could affect an individual's chance to reach the extreme limit of human life The present review is not an extensive revision of the literature, but rather an expert opinion based on selected data from the authors' laboratories In 2000-2005 in the more developed regions, the life expectancy at birth is 719 years for men (783 in Japan) and 793 years for women (863 in Japan) Indeed, gender accounts for important differences in the prevalence of a variety of age-related diseases Considering people of far-advanced age, demographic data document a clear-cut prevalence of females compared to males, suggesting that sex-specific mortality rates follow different trajectories during aging In Italy this female/male ratio is relatively lower (about 5/1; F/M ratios are usually 5-6:1 in other developed countries), but significant differences have been observed between Italian regions in the distribution of centenarians by gender--from two women per man in the South to more than eight in certain regions in the North Thus, a complex interaction of environmental, historical, and genetic factors, differently characterizing the various parts of Italy, likely plays an important role in determining the gender-specific probability of achieving longevity This can be due to gender-specific cultural and anthropological characteristics of Italian society in the last 100 years Age-related immunoinflammatory factors increase during proinflammatory status, and the frequency of pro/anti-inflammatory gene variants also show gender differences There is some suggestion that people genetically predisposed to weak inflammatory activity may be at reduced chance of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) and, therefore, may achieve longer lifespan if they avoid serious life-threatening infectious disease thoroughout life Thus, the pathogen burden, by interacting with host genotype, could determine the type and intensity of the immune-inflammatory response responsible for both proinflammatory status and CHD These findings point to a strong relationship between the genetics of inflammation, successful aging, and the control of cardiovascular disease, but seem to suggest that the evidence for men is much stronger The importance of these studies lies in the fact that half of the population (males) lives approximately 10% shorter lives than the other half (females) Understanding the different strategies that men and women seem to follow to achieve longevity may help us to comprehend better the basic phenomenon of aging and allow us to search for safe ways to increase male lifespan

Immunogenetics, Gender, and Longevity

This is a collection of 16 papers based on those presented at a seminar convened in June 1993 by the Committee on Adult Mortality a committee of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP). The papers are grouped under four topics. The three introductory contributions define the concept of old age describe the issues surrounding it and assess the future prospects for extended survival. The next eight papers discuss trends and determinants of health status among older populations. There are three papers presenting mortality projections and the final two contributions discuss strategies and policies for dealing with elderly populations.

Health and mortality among elderly populations.

On April 18, 2007 an international meeting on Pathophysiology of Ageing, Longevity and Age-Related Diseases was held in Palermo, Italy. Several interesting topics on Cancer, Immunosenescence, Age-related inflammatory diseases and longevity were discussed. In this report we summarize the most important issues. However, ageing must be considered an unavoidable end point of the life history of each individual, nevertheless the increasing knowledge on ageing mechanisms, allows envisaging many different strategies to cope with, and delay it. So, a better understanding of pathophysiology of ageing and age-related disease is essential for giving everybody a reasonable chance for living a long and enjoyable final part of the life.

/pdf/pathophysiology-of-ageing-longevity-and-age-related-diseases-4hr27hmevg.pdf

Graziella Caselli

Papers

Three Dimensions of the Survival Curve: Horizontalization, Verticalization, and Longevity Extension

Adult mortality in developed countries: from description to explanation.

Immunogenetics, Gender, and Longevity

Health and mortality among elderly populations.

Pathophysiology of ageing, longevity and age related diseases