Showing papers by "Hamid Yimam Hassen published in 2020"

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract: Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, agestandardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in highburden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract: Summary Background Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates. Methods We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years. Findings In 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286–873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65·4% decrease, 61·5–68·5) and in mortality rate (from 362·7 deaths [330·1–392·0] per 100 000 children to 118·9 deaths [109·8–128·3] per 100 000 children; 67·2% decrease, 63·5–70·1). LRI incidence declined globally (32·4% decrease, 27·2–37·5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11·4% decrease, 0·0–24·5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6·3% decrease, 6·1–6·3), and reductions in household air pollution (8·4%, 6·8–9·2). Interpretation Our findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract: Summary Background Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162–593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1–87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1–74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2–15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6–10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8–8·4). Interpretation Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors—particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution—appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries

Abstract: Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but—to our knowledge—no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Abstract: BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract: Background: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Determinants of Acute Respiratory Infection Among Children in Ethiopia: A Multilevel Analysis from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey

Abstract: Background Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is one of the leading public health challenges among children in low- and middle-income countries. Child mortality due to ARI is disproportionately higher in African regions. In Ethiopia, an encouraging progress in the reduction of ARI was observed until 2010, however, since then the national prevalence is unchanged. There is limited information for the persistently higher prevalence of the infection. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine regional variations and identify factors associated with the infection. Methods This study used data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) conducted in 2016. The analysis used information from 10,006 children. A two-level logistic regression analysis was used to consider the cluster random effect. Results Out of 10,006 children included, 15.9%, 8.9%, and 8.8% reported cough, short rapid breaths, and chest complaint respectively two weeks before the survey, making the overall prevalence of ARI 8.8%. Children aged six to 11 years (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.466, 95%CI: 1.143-1.881), and 12 to 23 (AOR=1.390, 95%CI: 1.109-1.742), small birth size (AOR=1.387, 95%CI), and animal dung as cooking fuel (AOR=1.904, 95%CI: 1.152-3.146) are significantly associated with higher odds of ARI in the final multilevel modeling. The AOR (95%CI) for ARI for differing levels of altitude were: 1000 to 2000, 1.805 (1.403-2.483); 2000 to 3000, 1.882 (1.427-2.483); above 3000, 2.24 (1.023-4.907). Conclusion ARI is still a significant public health problem in Ethiopia among children underfive, with a huge variation in the burden across the regional states. Age of children, birth size, household cooking fuel, and altitude above sea level were important variables. Therefore, regional governments, health-care workers and concerned organizations should give emphasis to minimize ARI and the consequences associated with the disease.

Performance of mid-upper arm circumference as a screening tool for identifying adolescents with overweight and obesity.

Abstract: Background Adolescent overweight and obesity is a global public health problem, associated with an increased risk of metabolic syndrome Recently, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) has been suggested as a screening tool to identify overweight and obesity among school-age children and early adolescents (5-14 years) However, little is known about the potential use of MUAC in the late adolescence period (15-19 years) Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the performance of MUAC to identify overweight (including obesity) in the late adolescence period in Ethiopia Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study among 851 adolescents aged 15 to 19 years We collected anthropometric data including MUAC, weight and height with the help of trained field workers The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to examine the validity of MUAC compared to BMI Z score in identifying adolescents with overweight or obesity Furthermore, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), proportion of correctly classified, positive, and negative likelihood ratio for the proposed optimal cut-offs Results MUAC was strongly correlated with BMI Z score with a correlation coefficient (r) of 081 (95% CI; 079-084) The optimal MUAC cut-off for identifying adolescents with overweight or obesity was 277 cm for males and 279 cm for females The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 096 (95% CI; 093-098) for males and 096 (95% CI; 094-098) for females The accuracy level of MUAC to identify adolescents with overweight (including obesity) was high for both sexes (overall a sensitivity of 911% and a specificity of 903%) Conclusions MUAC has relatively equivalent accuracy with BMI Z score to identify overweight and obesity in adolescents Hence, MUAC could be used as an alternative tool for surveillance and screening of overweight in adolescents aged 15-19 years

National incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of common micronutrient deficiencies in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2017: estimates from the global burden of diseases study

Abstract: Understanding the national burden and trend of micronutrient deficiencies helps to guide effective intervention strategies under various circumstances There is, however, a lack of evidence on tren

Survival and prognostic determinants of prostate cancer patients in Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A retrospective cohort study

Abstract: Background Globally, the incidence of prostate cancer is increasing, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. It is the most common cancer among men worldwide, with higher mortality in low and middle-income countries. In Ethiopia, it is the second most common cause of cancer morbidity and mortality among men. Despite a few studies done regarding the disease burden, the evidence is scarce about the survival and prognostic determinants of prostate cancer patients in Ethiopia. Thus, this study assessed the survival and prognostic determinants of patients with prostate cancer. Methods We retrospectively followed patients who were newly diagnosed from 2012 to 2016 at the Oncology Department of Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital. We extracted the data from patient charts that were available in the cancer registry using a checklist with the help of oncology nurses. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses with the log-rank test were used to estimate and compare the probability of survival among covariate categories. After checking for assumptions, a multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to identify prognostic determinants of survival. Results The median survival time was 28 months with an overall 2-, 3- and 5-year survival of 57%, 38.9% and 22%, respectively. The overall survival differs according to the clinical stage (P-value<0.01), presence or absence of distant metastasis (P<0.01) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) (P<0.05). Cancer stage at diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 0.309, 95%CI = 0.151–0.633) and ADT (AHR = 3.884, 95%CI = 1.677–8.997) remained significant in the final Cox proportional hazards model. Conclusions The overall 2-, 3- and 5-year survival of prostate cancer patients in Ethiopia is very low. The cancer stage at diagnosis and treatment modalities are significant prognostic determinants of survival. Therefore, early detection through screening and timely initiation of treatment are essential to improve the survival of prostate cancer patients.

Socioeconomic and behavioral determinants of cardiovascular diseases among older adults in Belgium and France: A longitudinal analysis from the SHARE study.

Abstract: Despite advances in the healthcare system, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are still an important public health problem with disparities in the burden within and between countries. Studies among the adult population documented that socioeconomic and environmental factors play a role in the incidence and progression of CVDs. However, evidence is scarce on the socioeconomic determinants and the interplay with behavioral risks among older adults. Therefore, we identified socioeconomic and behavioral determinants of CVDs among older adults. Our sample consisted of 14,322 people aged 50 years and above from Belgium and France who responded to the waves 4, 5, 6 and/or 7 of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe. The effect of determinants on the occurrence of CVD was examined using a Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) approach for binary longitudinal data. The overall rate of heart attack was 8.3%, which is 7.6% in Belgium and 9.1% in France. Whereas, 2.6% and 2.3% in Belgium and France, respectively, had experienced stroke. In the multivariable GEE model, older age [AOR: 1.057, 95%CI: 1.055-1.060], living in large cities [AOR: 1.14, 95%CI: 1.07-1.18], and retirement [AOR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.16-1.31] were associated with higher risk of CVD. Furthermore, higher level of education [AOR: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.79-0.90], upper wealth quantile [AOR: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.76-0.86] and having social support [AOR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.77-0.84] significantly lowers the odds of having CVD. A higher hand grip strength was also significantly associated with lower risk of CVD [AOR: 0.987, 95%CI: 0.984-0.990]. This study demonstrated that older adults who do not have social support, live in big cities, belong to the lowest wealth quantile, and have a low level of education have a higher likelihood of CVD. Therefore, community-based interventions aimed at reducing cardiovascular risks need to give more emphasis to high-risk retired older adults with lower education, no social support and those who live in large cities.

Prevalence and Predictors of Neurocognitive Impairment in Ethiopian Population Living with HIV.

Abstract: Background Modern antiretroviral therapy has extended the life expectancies of people living with HIV; however, the prevention and treatment of their associated neurocognitive decline have remained a challenge. Consequently, it is desirable to investigate the prevalence and predictors of neurocognitive impairment to help in targeted screening and disease prevention. Materials and methods Two hundred and forty-four people living with HIV were interviewed in a study using a cross-sectional design and the International HIV Dementia Scale (IHDS). Additionally, the sociodemographic, clinical, and psychosocial characteristics of the patients were recorded. Chi-square and binary logistic regression analysis were used to determine the level of significance among the independent risk factors and probable neurocognitive impairment. Results The point prevalence of neurocognitive impairment was found to be 39.3%. Participants' characteristics of being older than 40 years (AOR= 2.81 (95% CI; 1.11-7.15)), having a history of recreational drug use (AOR= 13.67 (95% CI; 6.42-29.13)), and being non-compliant with prescribed medications (AOR= 2.99 (95% CI; 1.01-8.87)) were independent risk factors for neurocognitive impairment. Conclusion The identification of predictors, in the Ethiopian people living with HIV, may help in the targeted screening of vulnerable groups during cART follow-up visits. This may greatly help in strategizing and implementation of the prevention program, more so, because (i) HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment is an asymptomatic condition for considerable durations, and (ii) clinical trials on neurocognitive impairment therapies have been unsuccessful.

Level of physical activity and other maternal characteristics during the third trimester of pregnancy and its association with birthweight at term in South Ethiopia: A prospective cohort study

Abstract: Birthweight continues to be the leading infant health indicator and the main focus of infant health policy. Low birthweight babies are at a higher risk of mortality and morbidity in most low-income countries. However, the physical activity level of pregnant women and its association with low birthweight is not well studied in Ethiopia. To address the above gap, we aimed to examine the maternal physical activity level and other characteristics during the third trimester and its association with birthweight at term in South Ethiopia. A community-based prospective cohort study was conducted among 247 randomly selected women in their third trimester of pregnancy. We measured the physical activity level using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire, which included the type and level of various categories of activities. Anthropometric measurements of mothers were taken following standard procedures, and birthweight was recorded within 72 hours of delivery. To identify the effect of physical activity level and other maternal characteristics on low birthweight, we performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Overall, 111 (47.2%) mothers were engaged in vigorous physical activities during third trimester. The incidence of low birthweight was 21.6% and 9.68% among newborns of mothers who engaged in vigorous and moderate or low physical activity, respectively. The incidence of low birthweight at term was significantly associated with vigorous physical activity [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.48; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-6.09], prolonged standing [AOR = 3.37; 95% CI: 1.14-9.93], and squatting [AOR = 2.61; 95% CI: 1.04-6.54)] during the third trimester of pregnancy. The vast majority of pregnant women were engaged in vigorous physical activities in their third trimester. Engagement in vigorous physical activity, standing for longer hours, and squatting were the major contributors to low birthweight at term. Hence, focused counseling should be conducted to reduce vigorous physical activity, standing, and squatting during the third trimester among pregnant women.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score to Predict Low Birthweight Using Characteristics of the Mother: Analysis from BUNMAP Cohort in Ethiopia

Abstract: At least one ultrasound is recommended to predict fetal growth restriction and low birthweight earlier in pregnancy. However, in low-income countries, imaging equipment and trained manpower are scarce. Hence, we developed and validated a model and risk score to predict low birthweight using maternal characteristics during pregnancy, for use in resource limited settings. We developed the model using a prospective cohort of 379 pregnant women in South Ethiopia. A stepwise multivariable analysis was done to develop the prediction model. To improve the clinical utility, we developed a simplified risk score to classify pregnant women at high- or low-risk of low birthweight. The accuracy of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plot. All accuracy measures were internally validated using the bootstrapping technique. We evaluated the clinical impact of the model using a decision curve analysis across various threshold probabilities. Age at pregnancy, underweight, anemia, height, gravidity, and presence of comorbidity remained in the final multivariable prediction model. The AUC of the model was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.78 to 0.88). The decision curve analysis indicated the model provides a higher net benefit across ranges of threshold probabilities. In general, this study showed the possibility of predicting low birthweight using maternal characteristics during pregnancy. The model could help to identify pregnant women at higher risk of having a low birthweight baby. This feasible prediction model would offer an opportunity to reduce obstetric-related complications, thus improving the overall maternal and child healthcare in low- and middle-income countries.

Dietary Habit and Other Risk Factors of Chronic Kidney Disease Among Patients Attending Dessie Referral Hospital, Northeast Ethiopia.

Abstract: Background In low- and middle-income countries, the burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is rising due to poor access to early detection and management services. In Ethiopia, little is known about the context-specific risk factors and their magnitude, particularly the dietary habit of patients is not studied. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the dietary and other risk factors of CKD in Northeast Ethiopia. Methods We conducted a facility-based unmatched case-control study utilizing quantitative method of data collection. Data were collected on a total of 66 cases and 134 controls using structured questionnaire and anthropometric measurements. Dietary habit was assessed using the Diet History Questionnaire (DHQ). Medical history, patient chart review and physical examination were employed to collect other relevant information. To identify independent predictors of CKD, we conducted a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results About 54.5% cases and 46.3% of controls were female, while 40.9% of cases and 38.8% of controls were within the age group of 36-55. All cases and 128 (95.5%) controls consumed meat in the last year. Forty-six (69.7%) cases and 74 (55.2%) controls use palm oil as the main cooking oil. History of hypertension ( adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.39; 95%CI: 1.17-4.89), anemia (AOR=2.38; 95%CI: 1.04-5.42), palm oil use (AOR=2.10; 95%CI: 1.01-4.35) and family history of CKD (AOR=8.77; 95%CI: 3.73-20.63) were significantly associated with the risk of having CKD. Conclusion Meat consumption and use of palm oil are higher among patients with CKD than controls. History of hypertension, anemia, family history of CKD and palm oil consumption were found to be risk factors for CKD. Dietary counseling interventions and dietary modifications might help in CKD prevention. Furthermore, routine urinalysis and estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) for all hospitalized patients with hypertension and anemia could help to detect CKD at an earlier stage for a better prognosis.