Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Data Mining Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques

On robust estimation of the location parameter

MUCKE aims to mine a large volume of images, to structure them conceptually and to use this conceptual structuring in order to improve large-scale image retrieval. The last decade witnessed important progress concerning low-level image representations. However, there are a number problems which need to be solved in order to unleash the full potential of image mining in applications. The central problem with low-level representations is the mismatch between them and the human interpretation of image content. This problem can be instantiated, for instance, by the incapability of existing descriptors to capture spatial relationships between the concepts represented or by their incapability to convey an explanation of why two images are similar in a content-based image retrieval framework. We start by assessing existing local descriptors for image classification and by proposing to use co-occurrence matrices to better capture spatial relationships in images. The main focus in MUCKE is on cleaning large scale Web image corpora and on proposing image representations which are closer to the human interpretation of images. Consequently, we introduce methods which tackle these two problems and compare results to state of the art methods. Note: some aspects of this deliverable are withheld at this time as they are pending review. Please contact the authors for a preview.

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel2/4524/12820/00592460.pdf

Image Processing

In this paper, an evolving least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) learning paradigm with a mixed kernel is proposed to explore stock market trends. In the proposed learning paradigm, a genetic algorithm (GA), one of the most popular evolutionary algorithms (EAs), is first used to select input features for LSSVM learning, i.e., evolution of input features. Then, another GA is used for parameters optimization of LSSVM, i.e., evolution of algorithmic parameters. Finally, the evolving LSSVM learning paradigm with best feature subset, optimal parameters, and a mixed kernel is used to predict stock market movement direction in terms of historical data series. For illustration and evaluation purposes, three important stock indices, S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index, and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Index, are used as testing targets. Experimental results obtained reveal that the proposed evolving LSSVM can produce some forecasting models that are easier to be interpreted by using a small number of predictive features and are more efficient than other parameter optimization methods. Furthermore, the produced forecasting model can significantly outperform other forecasting models listed in this paper in terms of the hit ratio. These findings imply that the proposed evolving LSSVM learning paradigm can be used as a promising approach to stock market tendency exploration.

Evolving Least Squares Support Vector Machines for Stock Market Trend Mining

Negative Correlation Learning (NCL) [CHECK END OF SENTENCE], [CHECK END OF SENTENCE] is a neural network ensemble learning algorithm which introduces a correlation penalty term to the cost function of each individual network so that each neural network minimizes its mean-square-error (MSE) together with the correlation. This paper describes NCL in detail and observes that the NCL corresponds to training the entire ensemble as a single learning machine that only minimizes the MSE without regularization. This insight explains that NCL is prone to overfitting the noise in the training set. The paper analyzes this problem and proposes the multiobjective regularized negative correlation learning (MRNCL) algorithm which incorporates an additional regularization term for the ensemble and uses the evolutionary multiobjective algorithm to design ensembles. In MRNCL, we define the crossover and mutation operators and adopt nondominated sorting algorithm with fitness sharing and rank-based fitness assignment. The experiments on synthetic data as well as real-world data sets demonstrate that MRNCL achieves better performance than NCL, especially when the noise level is nontrivial in the data set. In the experimental discussion, we give three reasons why our algorithm outperforms others.

/pdf/multiobjective-neural-network-ensembles-based-on-regularized-p2t60xg9mz.pdf

Multiobjective Neural Network Ensembles Based on Regularized Negative Correlation Learning

Negative correlation learning (NCL) is a neural network ensemble learning algorithm that introduces a correlation penalty term to the cost function of each individual network so that each neural network minimizes its mean square error (MSE) together with the correlation of the ensemble. This paper analyzes NCL and reveals that the training of NCL (when ? = 1) corresponds to training the entire ensemble as a single learning machine that only minimizes the MSE without regularization. This analysis explains the reason why NCL is prone to overfitting the noise in the training set. This paper also demonstrates that tuning the correlation parameter ? in NCL by cross validation cannot overcome the overfitting problem. The paper analyzes this problem and proposes the regularized negative correlation learning (RNCL) algorithm which incorporates an additional regularization term for the whole ensemble. RNCL decomposes the ensemble's training objectives, including MSE and regularization, into a set of sub-objectives, and each sub-objective is implemented by an individual neural network. In this paper, we also provide a Bayesian interpretation for RNCL and provide an automatic algorithm to optimize regularization parameters based on Bayesian inference. The RNCL formulation is applicable to any nonlinear estimator minimizing the MSE. The experiments on synthetic as well as real-world data sets demonstrate that RNCL achieves better performance than NCL, especially when the noise level is nontrivial in the data set.

Regularized Negative Correlation Learning for Neural Network Ensembles

In this paper, a sparse learning algorithm, probabilistic classification vector machines (PCVMs), is proposed. We analyze relevance vector machines (RVMs) for classification problems and observe that adopting the same prior for different classes may lead to unstable solutions. In order to tackle this problem, a signed and truncated Gaussian prior is adopted over every weight in PCVMs, where the sign of prior is determined by the class label, i.e., +1 or -1. The truncated Gaussian prior not only restricts the sign of weights but also leads to a sparse estimation of weight vectors, and thus controls the complexity of the model. In PCVMs, the kernel parameters can be optimized simultaneously within the training algorithm. The performance of PCVMs is extensively evaluated on four synthetic data sets and 13 benchmark data sets using three performance metrics, error rate (ERR), area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (AUC), and root mean squared error (RMSE). We compare PCVMs with soft-margin support vector machines (SVMSoft), hard-margin support vector machines (SVMHard), SVM with the kernel parameters optimized by PCVMs (SVMPCVM), relevance vector machines (RVMs), and some other baseline classifiers. Through five replications of twofold cross-validation F test, i.e., 5 times 2 cross-validation F test, over single data sets and Friedman test with the corresponding post-hoc test to compare these algorithms over multiple data sets, we notice that PCVMs outperform other algorithms, including SVMSoft, SVMHard, RVM, and SVMPCVM, on most of the data sets under the three metrics, especially under AUC. Our results also reveal that the performance of SVMPCVM is slightly better than SVMSoft, implying that the parameter optimization algorithm in PCVMs is better than cross validation in terms of performance and computational complexity. In this paper, we also discuss the superiority of PCVMs' formulation using maximum a posteriori (MAP) analysis and margin analysis, which explain the empirical success of PCVMs.

/pdf/probabilistic-classification-vector-machines-3b2ev23rhk.pdf

Probabilistic Classification Vector Machines

The emergence of large sensor networks has facilitated the collection of large amounts of real-time data to monitor and control complex engineering systems. However, in many cases the collected data may be incomplete or inconsistent, while the underlying environment may be time-varying or unformulated. In this paper, we develop an innovative cognitive fault diagnosis framework that tackles the above challenges. This framework investigates fault diagnosis in the model space instead of the signal space. Learning in the model space is implemented by fitting a series of models using a series of signal segments selected with a sliding window. By investigating the learning techniques in the fitted model space, faulty models can be discriminated from healthy models using a one-class learning algorithm. The framework enables us to construct a fault library when unknown faults occur, which can be regarded as cognitive fault isolation. This paper also theoretically investigates how to measure the pairwise distance between two models in the model space and incorporates the model distance into the learning algorithm in the model space. The results on three benchmark applications and one simulated model for the Barcelona water distribution network confirm the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Huanhuan Chen

Papers

Evolving Least Squares Support Vector Machines for Stock Market Trend Mining

Multiobjective Neural Network Ensembles Based on Regularized Negative Correlation Learning

Regularized Negative Correlation Learning for Neural Network Ensembles

Probabilistic Classification Vector Machines

Learning in the Model Space for Cognitive Fault Diagnosis