J. A. Kettleborough

TL;DR: Results from the ‘climateprediction.net’ experiment are presented, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details, finding model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11’K.

TL;DR: It is found that, in the absence of policies to mitigate climate change, global-mean temperature rise is insensitive to the differences in the emissions scenarios over the next four decades and that in the future, as the signal of climate change emerges further, the predictions will become better constrained.

TL;DR: The CLIMATEPREDICTION.COM project has developed the software necessary to carry out such a project in the public domain this article, along with the computational challenges such as data mining, visualization, and distributed database management.

TL;DR: In this article, a method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change, using optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in model simulations of twentieth-century warming.

TL;DR: In this article , the forecast ensemble mean was shifted towards a positive NAO phase by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which was captured within the ensemble spread of predictions from the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system.