Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.

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Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

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Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

The global decline in estuarine and coastal ecosystems (ECEs) is affecting a number of critical benefits, or ecosystem services. We review the main ecological services across a variety of ECEs, including marshes, mangroves, nearshore coral reefs, seagrass beds, and sand beaches and dunes. Where possible, we indicate estimates of the key economic values arising from these services, and discuss how the natural variability of ECEs impacts their benefits, the synergistic relationships of ECEs across seascapes, and management implications. Although reliable valuation estimates are beginning to emerge for the key services of some ECEs, such as coral reefs, salt marshes, and mangroves, many of the important benefits of seagrass beds and sand dunes and beaches have not been assessed properly. Even for coral reefs, marshes, and mangroves, important ecological services have yet to be valued reliably, such as cross-ecosystem nutrient transfer (coral reefs), erosion control (marshes), and pollution control (mangroves). An important issue for valuing certain ECE services, such as coastal protection and habitat-fishery linkages, is that the ecological functions underlying these services vary spatially and temporally. Allowing for the connectivity between ECE habitats also may have important implications for assessing the ecological functions underlying key ecosystems services, such coastal protection, control of erosion, and habitat-fishery linkages. Finally, we conclude by suggesting an action plan for protecting and/or enhancing the immediate and longer-term values of ECE services. Because the connectivity of ECEs across land-sea gradients also influences the provision of certain ecosystem services, management of the entire seascape will be necessary to preserve such synergistic effects. Other key elements of an action plan include further ecological and economic collaborative research on valuing ECE services, improving institutional and legal frameworks for management, controlling and regulating destructive economic activities, and developing ecological restoration options.

https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1890/10-1510.1

The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services

The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

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Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs

Ocean acidification is widely recognized as a significant climate-related oceanic threat, not only independently but also in connection with other oceanic stressors, including warming and deoxygenation. Recent work shows that ocean acidification will negatively affect processes such as calcification of most species, including reef-building corals, and could also cause diminished fish sensory ability and respiratory stress. However, almost all of these findings result from short-term experiments on organisms in laboratory aquaria. But how can scientists perform long-term in situ experiments that may confirm, or modify, conclusions drawn from laboratory experiments? With funding from the BNP Paribas Foundation, the xFOCE workshop brought together a group of 20 scientists and engineers to examine this.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013EO160004

Progress in Controlled In Situ Ocean Acidification Experiments

Seawater carbonate chemistry, photosynthesis, respiration and calcification during experiments with scleractinian coral Stylophora pistillata, 2003

Impact of intermittent Convection in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea on Oxygen content, Nutrients and the Carbonate system

Abstract. The ability of coral populations to recover from disturbance depends on larval dispersion and recruitment. While ocean warming and acidification effects on adult corals are well documented, information on early life stages is comparatively scarce. Here, we investigate whether ocean warming and acidification can affect the larval and recruit development of the Mediterranean azooxanthellate coral Astroides calycularis. Larvae and recruits were raised for 9 months at ambient (23 ∘C) and warm
(26 ∘C) temperatures and ambient (8.0) and low pH (7.7, on the
total scale). The timing of the larval metamorphosis, growth of the recruit polyp by linear extension and budding, and skeletal characteristics of the
9-month-old polyps were monitored. Settlement and metamorphosis were more
successful and hastened under a warm temperature. In contrast, low pH
delayed the metamorphosis and affected the growth of the recruits by reducing the calcified area of attachment to the substrate as well as by diminishing the skeleton volume and the number of septa. However, skeleton density was higher under low pH and ambient temperature. The warm temperature and low-pH treatment had a negative impact on the survival, settlement, and growth of recruits. This study provides evidence of the threat represented by ocean warming and acidification for the larval recruitment and the growth of recruits of A. calycularis.


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Early life stages of a Mediterranean coral are vulnerable to ocean warming and acidification

Abstract. The collection of in situ data is generally a costly process, with the Arctic being no exception. Indeed, there has been a perception that the Arctic lacks for in situ sampling; however, after many years of concerted effort and international collaboration, the Arctic is now rather well sampled with many cruise expeditions every year. For example, the GLODAP product has a greater density of in situ sample points within the Arctic than along the equator. While this is useful for open ocean processes, the fjords of the Arctic, which serve as crucially important intersections of terrestrial, coastal, and marine processes, are sampled in a much more ad hoc process. This is not to say they are not well sampled, but rather that the data are more difficult to source and combine for further analysis. It was therefore noted that the fjords of the Arctic are lacking in FAIR (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reuse) data. To address this issue a single dataset has been created from publicly available, predominantly in situ data from 7 study sites in Svalbard and Greenland. After finding and accessing the data from a number of online platforms, they were amalgamated into a single project-wide standard, ensuring their interoperability. The dataset was then uploaded to PANGAEA so that it itself can be findable and reusable into the future. The focus of the data collection was driven by the key drivers of change in Arctic fjords identified in a companion review paper. To demonstrate the usability of this dataset an analysis of the relationship between the different drivers was performed. Via the use of an Arctic biogeochemical model these relationships were projected forward to 2100 via RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. This dataset is a work in progress and as new datasets containing the relevant key drivers are released they will be added to an updated version planned for mid 2024. The dataset (Schlegel &amp;amp; Gattuso, 2022) is publicly available on Zenodo at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7472376. 

/pdf/a-dataset-for-investigating-socio-ecological-changes-in-3ird7vj4.pdf

Jean-Pierre Gattuso

Papers

Progress in Controlled In Situ Ocean Acidification Experiments

Seawater carbonate chemistry, photosynthesis, respiration and calcification during experiments with scleractinian coral Stylophora pistillata, 2003

Impact of intermittent Convection in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea on Oxygen content, Nutrients and the Carbonate system

Early life stages of a Mediterranean coral are vulnerable to ocean warming and acidification

A Dataset for Investigating Socio-ecological Changes in Arctic Fjords