Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.

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Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

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Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

The global decline in estuarine and coastal ecosystems (ECEs) is affecting a number of critical benefits, or ecosystem services. We review the main ecological services across a variety of ECEs, including marshes, mangroves, nearshore coral reefs, seagrass beds, and sand beaches and dunes. Where possible, we indicate estimates of the key economic values arising from these services, and discuss how the natural variability of ECEs impacts their benefits, the synergistic relationships of ECEs across seascapes, and management implications. Although reliable valuation estimates are beginning to emerge for the key services of some ECEs, such as coral reefs, salt marshes, and mangroves, many of the important benefits of seagrass beds and sand dunes and beaches have not been assessed properly. Even for coral reefs, marshes, and mangroves, important ecological services have yet to be valued reliably, such as cross-ecosystem nutrient transfer (coral reefs), erosion control (marshes), and pollution control (mangroves). An important issue for valuing certain ECE services, such as coastal protection and habitat-fishery linkages, is that the ecological functions underlying these services vary spatially and temporally. Allowing for the connectivity between ECE habitats also may have important implications for assessing the ecological functions underlying key ecosystems services, such coastal protection, control of erosion, and habitat-fishery linkages. Finally, we conclude by suggesting an action plan for protecting and/or enhancing the immediate and longer-term values of ECE services. Because the connectivity of ECEs across land-sea gradients also influences the provision of certain ecosystem services, management of the entire seascape will be necessary to preserve such synergistic effects. Other key elements of an action plan include further ecological and economic collaborative research on valuing ECE services, improving institutional and legal frameworks for management, controlling and regulating destructive economic activities, and developing ecological restoration options.

https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1890/10-1510.1

The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services

The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

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Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs

Ocean-based climate actions recommended by academicians from Europe and China

https://zenodo.org/record/7312016/files/Lebrun2022proof.pdf

Impact of climate change on Arctic macroalgal communities

The Arctic is experiencing dramatic environmental transformation due to rising temperatures and melting ice, which are affecting its environment, wildlife, and human communities. Remote sensing technologies (e.g. satellites) are increasingly being used to understand environmental change in the remote and understudied Arctic Ocean across broad spatial and temporal scales, generating vast data sets that require interactive visualization to be dynamically explored. We present a prototype visualization that uses aggregation means on different zoom levels to allow exploring a 200GB data set on sunlight in the Arctic Ocean, which consists of monthly time series of coastal pixels, photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), light attenuation coefficient (KPAR), and PAR estimated at the seafloor (PARBOTTOM) from 1998 to 2018. Our main example—the analysis of trends in sunlight radiation levels along the west coast of Greenland—exemplifies our tool’s value for marine biologists to getting a concise and interactive overview of sunlight radiation levels, which allows studying potential impacts on the Arctic ecosystem.

Visualizing Sunlight Radiation in the Arctic Ocean

https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/lob.200918243

Aquatic sciences meeting 2009: a memorable cruise through nice waters

Human activities are causing a sustained increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The resulting harmful effects on Earth’s climate require decarbonizing the economy and, given the slow pace and inherent limitations of decarbonization of some industries such as aviation, also the active removal and safe sequestration of CO2 away from the atmosphere (i.e., carbon dioxide removal or CDR; NASEM, 2022). Limiting global warming to 1.5°C—a target that may already have been exceeded—would require CDR on the order of 100–1000 Gt CO2 over the twenty-first century (IPCC, 2018).

Jean-Pierre Gattuso

Papers

Ocean-based climate actions recommended by academicians from Europe and China

Impact of climate change on Arctic macroalgal communities

Visualizing Sunlight Radiation in the Arctic Ocean

Aquatic sciences meeting 2009: a memorable cruise through nice waters

Operational Monitoring of Open-Ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal Deployments: Detection, Attribution, and Determination of Side Effects