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Using Multivariate Statistics

Co-Planar Stereotaxic Atlas of the Human Brain—3-Dimensional Proportional System: An Approach to Cerebral Imaging, J. Talairach, P. Tournoux. Georg Thieme Verlag, New York (1988), 122 pp., 130 figs. DM 268

The present historical moment may seem a particularly inopportune time to review Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam's latest exploration of civic decline in America. After all, the outpouring of volunteerism, solidarity, patriotism, and self-sacrifice displayed by Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to fly in the face of Putnam's central argument: that \"social capital\" -defined as \"social networks and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them\" (p. 19)'has declined to dangerously low levels in America over the last three decades. However, Putnam is not fazed in the least by the recent effusion of solidarity. Quite the contrary, he sees in it the potential to \"reverse what has been a 30to 40-year steady decline in most measures of connectedness or community.\"' As an example of how the current \"war on terrorism\" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says \"permanently marked\" the generation that lived through it and had a \"terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century.\" 3 If Americans can follow this example and channel their current civic

Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community

The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere: An Inquiry into a Category of Bourgeois Society

Following the 2016 U.S. presidential election, many have expressed concern about the effects of false stories (“fake news”), circulated largely through social media. We discuss the economics of fake news and present new data on its consumption prior to the election. Drawing on web browsing data, archives of fact-checking websites, and results from a new online survey, we find: (i) social media was an important but not dominant source of election news, with 14 percent of Americans calling social media their “most important” source; (ii) of the known false news stories that appeared in the three months before the election, those favoring Trump were shared a total of 30 million times on Facebook, while those favoring Clinton were shared 8 million times; (iii) the average American adult saw on the order of one or perhaps several fake news stories in the months around the election, with just over half of those who recalled seeing them believing them; and (iv) people are much more likely to believe stories that favor their preferred candidate, especially if they have ideologically segregated social media networks.

/pdf/social-media-and-fake-news-in-the-2016-election-1m4ttkb5mo.pdf

Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election

Purpose Argument strength (AS) is a validated measure of persuasiveness that has been identified as one of the key variables determining the effectiveness of video ads. Smoking-cessation videos with high AS are more effective at reducing smoking behavior than videos with low AS. The neural processes that mediate the effects of AS on subsequent smoking have not been identified. In the present study, we tested whether the efficacy of high-AS smoking-cessation videos is determined by the level of integration of visual and auditory (ie, multisensory) processes. In addition, we tested differences in sensation seeking, which is repeatedly associated with smokers' sensitivity to cessation interventions. Patients and methods Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we recorded the brain response of 66 smokers randomly assigned to view either 16 high-AS or 16 low-AS smoking-cessation videos. Multisensory processing was assessed by the functional connectivity between brain regions that encoded visual and auditory information in the videos. Smoking behavior was indexed by the urine level of cotinine, a nicotine metabolite, immediately before and approximately 30 days after the fMRI session. Results We found a significant moderated mediation effect, such that the connectivity between visual and auditory cortices mediated the effect of AS on subsequent smoking, but only for smokers lower in sensation seeking. The prediction performance of the model was confirmed by leave-one-out cross-validation. Conclusion Our study suggests that audiovisual integration underlies the greater efficacy of high- vs low-AS smoking-cessation videos for individuals lower in sensation seeking. High-sensation-seeking smokers may be responsive to other characteristics of smoking-cessation videos.

/pdf/connectivity-between-visual-and-auditory-cortices-mediates-24ubh86sd6.pdf

Connectivity between visual and auditory cortices mediates the influence of argument strength on the effectiveness of smoking-cessation videos among smokers low in sensation seeking

No wonder Americans are confused about which health reform proposal would best solve the country's needs. Many opinion polls conducted this year by the major news networks have focused on the public's approval of specific elements in the Clinton health plan, while ignoring its perception of the problem and alternative solutions. For polls to offer useful information to policymakers, pollsters must determine what the public wants, what it knows, and what paths it favors to reach those goals.

Do health reform polls clarify or confuse the public

Efficient Versus Accurate Message Testing: Choosing an Optimal Sample Size to Evaluate Message Characteristics

Research into the temporal structure of communicative interchanges in informal conversations has observed that partners influence one another's expressive behaviours in pause duration, latency duration, loudness, vocalisation duration, nonverbal immediacy behaviours, verbal aggression, verbal intimacy, verbal intensity and lexical diversity. A number of different explanations have been put forward to explain processes of mutual influence, and a number of different methodologies have been employed to establish the existence of mutual influence. The present paper focuses exclusively on the objectively defined talk and silence variables, vocalisation, pause and switching pause duration. Mutual influence between conversational partners on each of these variables has been observed typically in the mean and typically as positive, so that partners match one another. These mean similarities have not been satisfactorily explained. Using time-series procedures commonly employed in econometrics and in engineering, turn-by-turn mutual influence is studied on a dyad-by-dyad basis. If the data series are stationary, one can employ time-series procedures to establish for each person in each dyad the size and direction of the person's influence on the other. Turn-by-turn influence, if present, can account for similarity in the mean response level and can detect compensatory as well as matching processes. Explanations of mutual influence in talk and silence variables must be offered which have the possibility of explaining matching, and compensation not only in talk and silence variables but also for other expressive behaviours. Competing explanations of mutual influence processes are described and evaluated relative to the criteria (1) that the explanation be capable of accounting for both matching and compensation processes and (2) that the explanation be capable of accounting for mutual influence in expressive behaviours other than talk and silence.

Turn-by-Turn Matching and Compensation in Talk and Silence: New Methods and New Explanations

Although social media can be a source of guidance about HPV vaccination for parents, the information may not always be complete or accurate. We conducted a retrospective content analysis to identify content and frequencies of occurrence of disinformation and misinformation about HPV vaccine posted on Twitter between December 15, 2019, through March 31, 2020, among 3876 unique, English language #HPV Tweets, excluding retweets. We found that 24% of Tweets contained disinformation or misinformation, and the remaining 76% contained support/education. The most prevalent categories of disinformation/misinformation were (1) adverse health effects (59%), (2) mandatory vaccination (19%), and (3) inefficacy of the vaccine (14%). Among the adverse health effects Tweets, non-specific harm/injury (51%) and death (23%) were most frequent. Disinformation/misinformation Tweets vs. supportive Tweets had 5.44 (95% CI 5.33-5.56) times the incidence rate of retweet. In conclusion, almost one-quarter of #HPV Tweets contained disinformation or misinformation about the HPV vaccine and these tweets received higher audience engagement including likes and retweets. Implications for vaccine hesitancy are discussed. 

/pdf/exploring-content-of-misinformation-about-hpv-vaccine-on-6njtmmap.pdf

Joseph N. Cappella

Papers

Connectivity between visual and auditory cortices mediates the influence of argument strength on the effectiveness of smoking-cessation videos among smokers low in sensation seeking

Do health reform polls clarify or confuse the public

Efficient Versus Accurate Message Testing: Choosing an Optimal Sample Size to Evaluate Message Characteristics

Turn-by-Turn Matching and Compensation in Talk and Silence: New Methods and New Explanations

Exploring content of misinformation about HPV vaccine on twitter