Showing papers by "Karim C. Abbaspour published in 2008"

Statistical modeling of global geogenic fluoride contamination in groundwaters.

Abstract: The use of groundwater with high fluoride concentrations poses a health threat to millions of people around the world This study aims at providing a global overview of potentially fluoride-rich groundwaters by modeling fluoride concentration A large database of worldwide fluoride concentrations as well as available information on related environmental factors such as soil properties, geological settings, and climatic and topographical information on a global scale have all been used in the model The modeling approach combines geochemical knowledge with statistical methods to devise a rule-based statistical procedure, which divides the world into 8 different "process regions" For each region a separate predictive model was constructed The end result is a global probability map of fluoride concentration in the groundwater Comparisons of the modeled and measured data indicate that 60-70% of the fluoride variation could be explained by the models in six process regions, while in two process regions only 30% of the variation in the measured data was explained Furthermore, the global probability map corresponded well with fluorotic areas described in the international literature Although the probability map should not replace fluoride testing, it can give a first indication of possible contamination and thus may support the planning process of new drinking water projects

Modeling blue and green water availability in Africa

Abstract: [1] Despite the general awareness that in Africa many people and large areas are suffering from insufficient water supply, spatially and temporally detailed information on freshwater availability and water scarcity is so far rather limited. By applying a semidistributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), the freshwater components blue water flow (i.e., water yield plus deep aquifer recharge), green water flow (i.e., actual evapotranspiration), and green water storage (i.e., soil water) were estimated at a subbasin level with monthly resolution for the whole of Africa. Using the program SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm), the model was calibrated and validated at 207 discharge stations, and prediction uncertainties were quantified. The presented model and its results could be used in various advanced studies on climate change, water and food security, and virtual water trade, among others. The model results are generally good albeit with large prediction uncertainties in some cases. These uncertainties, however, disclose the actual knowledge about the modeled processes. The effect of considering these model-based uncertainties in advanced studies is shown for the computation of water scarcity indicators.

Statistical Modeling of Global Geogenic Arsenic Contamination in Groundwater

Abstract: Contamination of groundwaters with geogenic arsenic poses a major health risk to millions of people. Although the main geochemical mechanisms of arsenic mobilization are well understood, the worldwide scale of affected regions is still unknown. In this study we used a large database of measured arsenic concentration in groundwaters (around 20,000 data points) from around the world as well as digital maps of physical characteristics such as soil, geology, climate, and elevation to model probability maps of global arsenic contamination. A novel rule-based statistical procedure was used to combine the physical data and expert knowledge to delineate two process regions for arsenic mobilization: “reducing” and “high-pH/oxidizing”. Arsenic concentrations were modeled in each region using regression analysis and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferencing followed by Latin hypercube sampling for uncertainty propagation to produce probability maps. The derived global arsenic models could benefit from more accurate geologic ...

Application of a SWAT model for estimating runoff and sediment in two mountainous basins in central Iran

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model runoff and sediment in the Beheshtabad (3860 km2) and Vanak (3198 km2) watersheds in the northern Karun catchment in central Iran. Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2), which is one of the programs interfaced with SWAT, in the package SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration Uncertainty Programs). Two measures were used to assess the goodness of calibration and uncertainty analysis: (a) the percentage of data bracketed by the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU) (P factor), and (b) the ratio of average thickness of the 95PPU band to the standard deviation of the corresponding measured variable (D factor). Ideally, the P factor should tend towards 1 with a D factor close to zero. These measures together indicate the strength of the calibration-uncertainty analysis. Runoff and sediment data from four hydrometric stations in each basin were used for calibration and validation. The P factor f...

Simulating sulfadimidine transport in surface runoff and soil at the microplot and field scale.

Abstract: To prevent residues of veterinary medicinal products (VMPs) from contaminating surface waters and ground water, an environmental impact assessment is required before a new product is allowed on the market. Physically based simulation models are advocated for the calculation of predicted environmental concentrations at higher tiers of the assessment process. However, the validation status of potentially useful models is poor for VMP transport. The objective of this study was to evaluate the dual-permeability model MACRO for simulation of transport of sulfonamide antibiotics in surface runoff and soil. Special focus was on effects of solute application in liquid manure, which may alter the hydraulic properties at the soil surface. To this end we used data from a microplot runoff experiment and a field experiment, both conducted on the same clay loam soil prone to preferential flow. Results showed that the model could accurately simulate concentrations of sulfadimidine and the nonreactive tracer bromide in runoff and in soil from the microplot experiments. The use of posterior parameter distributions from calibrations using the microplot data resulted in poor simulations for the field data of total sulfadimidine losses. The poor results may be due to surface runoff being instantly transferred off the field in the model, whereas in reality re-infiltration may occur. The effects of the manure application were reflected in smaller total and micropore hydraulic conductives compared with the and micropore hydraulic conductivities compared with the application in aqueous solution. These effects could easily be accounted for in regulatory modeling.