The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades...

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An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Global energy consumption is projected to increase, even in the face of substantial declines in energy intensity, at least 2-fold by midcentury relative to the present because of population and economic growth. This demand could be met, in principle, from fossil energy resources, particularly coal. However, the cumulative nature of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere demands that holding atmospheric CO2 levels to even twice their preanthropogenic values by midcentury will require invention, development, and deployment of schemes for carbon-neutral energy production on a scale commensurate with, or larger than, the entire present-day energy supply from all sources combined. Among renewable energy resources, solar energy is by far the largest exploitable resource, providing more energy in 1 hour to the earth than all of the energy consumed by humans in an entire year. In view of the intermittency of insolation, if solar energy is to be a major primary energy source, it must be stored and dispatched on demand to the end user. An especially attractive approach is to store solar-converted energy in the form of chemical bonds, i.e., in a photosynthetic process at a year-round average efficiency significantly higher than current plants or algae, to reduce land-area requirements. Scientific challenges involved with this process include schemes to capture and convert solar energy and then store the energy in the form of chemical bonds, producing oxygen from water and a reduced fuel such as hydrogen, methane, methanol, or other hydrocarbon species.

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Powering the planet: Chemical challenges in solar energy utilization

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5×0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow

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The representative concentration pathways: an overview

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

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The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

The globe is witnessing a significant energy transformation with an increasing proportion of variable energy sources like wind and solar on the grid. Energy storage solutions are required to enable a seamless integration of these renewable energy sources. This paper presents a novel isothermal compressed air energy storage (CAES) consisting of two floating storage vessels in the deep ocean that operates by balancing the pressure of the upper and lower tanks with the oceanic pressure. The methodology consists of estimating the proposed system ’ s energy storage potential and operational parametrization. Results show that the maximum compression ratio between the two storage vessels is four, which significantly increases the system ’ s efficiency and lowers compression costs. Compressed air seesaw energy storage is a cheap alternative for storing compressed air because it does not require large, pressurized tanks or sand cavers. It is expected to cost between 10 and 50 USD/kWh for electric energy storage and between 800 and 1500 USD/kW for the installed power capacity. Seesaw is an interesting alternative to pumped hydro and hydrogen for long-term energy storage cycles in islands and coastal regions close to the deep sea.

https://repository.kaust.edu.sa/bitstream/10754/688140/1/1-s2.0-S2352152X2300035X-main.pdf

Compressed Air Seesaw Energy Storage - a Solution for Long-Term Electricity Storage

Special Issue: Greenhouse Gases - Integrated Assessment

How Close Are We to the Two Degree Limit?: UNEP Governing Council Meeting & Global Ministerial Environment Forum 24-26 February, 2010 Bali, Indonesia, by Chief Scientists Office, UNEP, in conjunction with representatives from nine scientific groups

Worldwide, global energy systems face an array of challenges, from access for the poor to reliability and security. Meanwhile, the provision of energy creates local human and ecological health impacts as well as dangerous global climate change. Addressing these issues simultaneously will require a fundamental transformation of the energy system. Recent assessments show that such a transformation is achievable in technological and economic terms, but it will present formidable supply- and demand-side challenges as well as problems of governance, transparency and reliability across scales. 

This policy brief presents a long-term vision for the energy system and describes the elements required for the transition towards this vision. To succeed, this transformation must integrate several key components, including a focus on high levels of energy efficiency and the scale up of investments in technology deployment as well as research, development and demonstration (RD&D).

An energy vision for a planet under pressure

Nature 493, 79–83 (2013); doi:10.1038/nature11787 In Fig. 2c and d of this Letter, the case of ‘Delayed action until 2020’ under an intermediate level of future energy demand (green dashed line) previously contained an inconsistency in its evolution of global greenhouse gas emissions until 2020 (that is, its greenhouse gas emissions until 2020 were in line with the low-energy instead of the intermediate-energy demand case).

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Keywan Riahi

Papers

Compressed Air Seesaw Energy Storage - a Solution for Long-Term Electricity Storage

Special Issue: Greenhouse Gases - Integrated Assessment

How Close Are We to the Two Degree Limit?: UNEP Governing Council Meeting & Global Ministerial Environment Forum 24-26 February, 2010 Bali, Indonesia, by Chief Scientists Office, UNEP, in conjunction with representatives from nine scientific groups

An energy vision for a planet under pressure

Corrigendum: Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation