Showing papers by "Luc Christiaensen published in 2017"

On the Structural Transformation of Rural Africa

Abstract: From 2000 to 2014, per capita gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa increased by almost 35 percent in real terms, doubling in some countries. Such progress happened while agricultural productivity growth remained low in the aggregate, despite some bright spots, and poverty reduction was steady but discouragingly slow. This paper argues that ending extreme poverty will require structural change in agriculture, and in rural African economies more broadly. Drawing on a range of recent research, the paper outlines broad priority areas for policy actions to accelerate productivity and initiate structural change in the agriculture sector and the rural nonfarm economy.

Where to create jobs to reduce poverty : cities or towns ?

Abstract: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question, this paper extends the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city The analysis first derives the labor income, migration cost and poverty line conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon Then sufficient statistics are developed for the policy decisions based on these parameters The empirical remit of the model is illustrated with long-running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania Further, the paper shows that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs

Secondary towns and poverty reduction: refocusing the urbanization agenda

Abstract: This review is framed around the exploration of a central hypothesis: A shift in public investment towards secondary towns from big cities will improve poverty reduction performance. Of course the hypothesis raises many questions. What exactly is the dichotomy of secondary towns versus big cities? What is the evidence for the contribution of secondary towns versus cities to poverty reduction? What are the economic mechanisms for such a differential contribution and how does policy interact with them? We find preliminary evidence and arguments in support of our hypothesis, but the impacts of policy on poverty are quite complex even in simple settings, and the question of secondary towns and poverty reduction is an open area for research and policy analysis.

Coping with Shocks: The Realities of African Life

Abstract: The shocks: • More than 60 percent of households report sudden losses in income and assets. • Weather shocks are very common, but price risk is just as prevalent. Death and illness were also frequently reported. • Health and weather shocks are often repeatedly experienced by the same household. Price risk is by far the most commonly reported covariate shock, much more so than weather shocks. • Risk is higher in rural areas, particularly risks to income. Rural households are more susceptible to income shocks because agriculture is a risky business. • Female-headed households are less susceptible to agricultural price risk, but more susceptible to food price risk.

Agriculture in Africa: telling facts from myths

Abstract: Governments, donors, and the private sector are taking a renewed interest, and investing billions of dollars in Africa’s agriculture. The agriculture in Africa at the dawn of the 21st century - telling facts from myths project addresses this void, using the living standards measurement study - integrated surveys on agriculture (LSMS-ISA), which conducts household surveys on 40 percent of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa on multiple topics. The project aims to revisit key assumptions about common wisdoms that used to apply to Africa’s agricultural sector which are no longer valid due to, rapid growth and urbanization, the new environment of high (and more volatile) world food prices, continuing soil erosion, and climate change. This report presents introduction; the myths; and getting the facts.

On the Structural Transformation of Rural Africa

Abstract: From 2000 to 2014, per capita gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa increased by almost 35 percent in real terms, doubling in some countries. Such progress happened while agricultural productivity growth remained low in the aggregate, despite some bright spots, and poverty reduction was steady but discouragingly slow. This paper argues that ending extreme poverty will require structural change in agriculture, and in rural African economies more broadly. Drawing on a range of recent research, the paper outlines broad priority areas for policy actions to accelerate productivity and initiate structural change in the agriculture sector and the rural nonfarm economy.

On the structural transformation of rural Africa

Abstract: From 2000 to 2014, per capita gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa increased by almost 35 percent in real terms, doubling in some countries. Such progress happened while agricultural productivity growth remained low in the aggregate, despite some bright spots, and poverty reduction was steady but discouragingly slow. This paper argues that ending extreme poverty will require structural change in agriculture, and in rural African economies more broadly. Drawing on a range of recent research, the paper outlines broad priority areas for policy actions to accelerate productivity and initiate structural change in the agriculture sector and the rural nonfarm economy.

Cities, towns, and poverty: migration equilibrium and income distribution in a todaro-type model with mulitiple destinations

Abstract: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question we extend the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. We first derive conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. We then address the policy question and show how the answer depends on the migration response, where the poverty line lies relative to incomes in the three locations, and at times also the poverty index itself. In particular, we develop sufficient statistics for the policy decisions based on these income parameters and illustrate the empirical remit of the model with long running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, we show that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs. Overall, the findings confirm that, given migration responses, national poverty outcomes are not immune to whether urban employment generation takes place in the towns or the city.

Cities, Towns, and Poverty: Migration Equilibrium and Income Distribution in a Todaro-Type Model with Multiple Destinations

Abstract: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question we extend the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. We first derive conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. We then address the policy question and show how the answer depends on the migration response, where the poverty line lies relative to incomes in the three locations, and at times also the poverty index itself. In particular, we develop sufficient statistics for the policy decisions based on these income parameters and illustrate the empirical remit of the model with long running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, we show that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs. Overall, the findings confirm that, given migration responses, national poverty outcomes are not immune to whether urban employment generation takes place in the towns or the city.

The Future of Work Requires More, Not Less Technology in Developing Countries

Abstract: Digital technology is transforming the organization and location of production, and thus the futureof work. It risks widening the gap between richer and developing countries, and between the better skilled and connected and the poorer population groups within countries, who stand to bear the brunt of the adjustment. But technology also creates opportunities (leapfrogging), to generate jobs, increase earnings and be more inclusive. To take maximum advantage and counter the threat of rising global inequality, developing countries need to: (1) address bottlenecks in technology access; (2) invest in skills and (3) create an enabling environment.

Secondary towns and poverty reduction in Tanzania

Abstract: •Tanzania is undergoing rapid urbanisation and the policy question is shifting from whether the country should urbanise to how it should do so. •In this brief, the researchers provide local and cross-country evidence suggesting that urbanisation can lead to poverty reduction. The researchers also find that secondary towns are better at reducing poverty than megacities and believe this is a result of their closer proximity to the rural poor. •Based on this evidence, this brief takes the position that the push to the middle-income status, which Tanzania aspires, cannot be driven purely by concentrating on growth engines in the largest cities. • It is concluded that carefully thought-through secondary town development can become an important policy vehicle for inclusive growth.

Where to create jobs : cities or towns?

Abstract: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question the authors extend the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. The authors first derive labor income, migration cost and poverty line conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. The authors then develop sufficient statistics for the policy decisions based on these income parameters. The empirical remit of the model is illustrated with long running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, we show that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs.

La pauvreté dans une Afrique en essor

Abstract: This report is the first of a two-part volume on poverty in Africa. This study documents the data challenges and revisits the core broad facts about poverty in Africa; the second report will explore ways to accelerate its reduction. The report takes a broad, multidimensional view of poverty, assessing progress over the past two decades along both monetary and nonmonetary dimensions. The dearth of comparable, good-quality household consumption surveys makes assessing monetary poverty especially challenging. The report scrutinizes the data used to assess monetary poverty in the region and explores how adjustments for data issues affect poverty trends. At the same time, the remarkable expansion of standardized household surveys on nonmonetary dimensions of well-being, including opinions and perceptions, opens up new opportunities. The report examines progress in education and health, the extent to which people are free from violence and able to shape their lives, and the joint occurrence of various types of deprivation. It also reviews the distributional aspects of poverty,by studying various dimensions of inequality. To shed light on Africa’s diversity, the report examines differences in performance across countries, by location, and by gender. Countries are characterized along four dimensions that have been shown to affect growth and poverty: resource richness, fragility, landlockedness and income status. To conclude, a portion of inequality in Africa can be attributed to inequality of opportunity, circumstances at birth that are major determinants of one’s poverty status as an adult.

Women’s Work on African Farms

Abstract: • Careful analysis of representative, individual labor input data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda puts the average female share of labor in crop production across these countries at 40 percent. • The share varies across countries, from 24 percent in Niger to 56 percent in Uganda, but remains consistently well below what the common wisdom suggests. • There are no systematic differences across crops and activities, but female labor shares tend to be higher in households where women own a larger share of the land and when they are better educated. • Accounting for the gender and knowledge profile of the survey respondents does not overturn this lower-than-expected female labor share in Africa’s crop production. • Underlying processes associated with female work include demographic, cultural, and economic factors, but these relationships vary by country, and there are no systematic differences in female labor participation across staple and cash crops or across agricultural tasks.

Food Loss: What Do African Farmers Say?

Abstract: • The perceived reality appears quite different from the common wisdom—at least in Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda. Farmers report PHL levels (for maize) that are significantly lower than previous estimates. Only a fifth of farmers report postharvest losses. • The average loss ranges from just 1.4 percent of the maize harvest in Malawi to 5.9 percent in Uganda. • But farmers who experience losses typically report substantial losses, amounting to between 20 and 27 percent of their harvests. • How much PHL will occur depends on how long the food is stored, and thus on the decisions by farmers about whether to consume it or sell in the marketplace (and when). • Most farmers report that most losses occur because of pests and insects. • The study finds the extent of seasonality in food prices, the humidity and temperature of the environment, and the education level of the household head to be significant in explaining PHL.