In Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, henceforth AJR, (2001), we advanced the hypothesis that the mortality rates faced by Europeans in different parts of the world after 1500 affected their willingness to establish settlements and choice of colonization strategy. Places that were relatively healthy (for Europeans) were—when they fell under European control—more likely to receive better economic and political institutions. In contrast, places where European settlers were less likely to go were more likely to have “extractive” institutions imposed. We also posited that this early pattern of institutions has persisted over time and influences the extent and nature of institutions in the modern world. On this basis, we proposed using estimates of potential European settler mortality as an instrument for institutional variation in former European colonies today. Data on settlers themselves are unfortunately patchy—particularly because not many went to places they believed, with good reason, to be most unhealthy. We therefore followed the lead of Curtin (1989 and 1998) who compiled data on the death rates faced by European soldiers in various overseas postings. 1 Curtin’s data were based on pathbreaking data collection and statistical work initiated by the British military in the mid-nineteenth century. These data became part of the foundation of both contemporary thinking about public health (for soldiers and for civilians) and the life insurance industry (as actuaries and executives considered the

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The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned. Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur. An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.

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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

This paper summarizes and explains the main events of the liquidity and credit crunch in 2007-08. Starting with the trends leading up to the crisis, I explain how these events unfolded and how four different amplification mechanisms magnified losses in the mortgage market into large dislocations and turmoil in financial markets.

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Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08

https://personal.lse.ac.uk/FERREIRD/gender.pdf

Women in the boardroom and their impact on governance and performance

We use panel data on a large number of firms in 13 developing countries to find out whether financial liberalization relaxes financing constraints of firms. We find that liberalization affects small and large firms differently. Small firms are financially constrained before the start of the liberalization process, but become less so after liberalization. Financing constraints of large firms, however, are low both before and after financial liberalization. The initial difference between large and small firms disappears over time. We also find that financial liberalization reduces financial market imperfections, particularly the informational asymmetries with respect to the financial leverage of firms. We hypothesize that financial liberalization has little effects on the financing constraints of large firms, because these firms had better access to preferential directed credit during the period before financial liberalization. JEL Classification Codes: E22, E44, G31, O16 1 Financial Sector Vice Presidency, World Bank, Washington. The author would like to thank Thorsten Beck, Jerry Caprio, Stijn Claessens, Gaston Gelos, Inessa Love, Pieter van Oijen and Sweder van Wijnbergen for valuable comments, and Ying Lin for providing the data. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be interpreted to reflect those of the World Bank or its affiliated institutions.

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Financial Liberalization and Financing Constraints: Evidence from Panel Data on Emerging Economies

This paper examines whether financial development boosts the growth of small firms more than large firms and hence provides information on the mechanisms through which financial development fosters aggregate economic growth. We define an industry's technological firm size as the firm size implied by industry specific production technologies, including capital intensities and scale economies. Using cross-industry, cross-country data, the results indicate that financial development exerts a disproportionately large effect on the growth of industries that are technologically more dependent on small firms. This suggests that financial development accelerates economic growth by removing growth constraints on small firms and also implies that financial development has sectoral as well as aggregate growth ramifications.

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Finance, Firm Size, and Growth

This paper updates the database on systemic banking crises presented in Laeven and Valencia (2008, 2013). Drawing on 151 systemic banking crises episodes around the globe during 1970-2017, the database includes information on crisis dates, policy responses to resolve banking crises, and the fiscal and output costs of crises. We provide new evidence that crises in high-income countries tend to last longer and be associated with higher output losses, lower fiscal costs, and more extensive use of bank guarantees and expansionary macro policies than crises in low- and middle-income countries. We complement the banking crises dates with sovereign debt and currency crises dates to find that sovereign debt and currency crises tend to coincide or follow banking crises.

Systemic Banking Crises Revisited

This paper uses panel data on a large number of firms in 13 developing countries to find out whether financial liberalization relaxes financing constraints of firms. We find that liberalization affects small and large firms differently. Small firms are financially constrained before the start of the liberalization process, but become less so after liberalization. Financing constraints of large firms, however, are low before financial liberalization, but become higher as financial liberalization proceeds. We hypothesize that financial liberalization has adverse effects on the financing constraints of large firms, because these firms had better access to preferential directed credit during the period before financial liberalization.

Does Financial Liberalization Reduce Financing Constraints

Using a comprehensive database of firms in Western and Eastern Europe, we study how the business environment in a country drives the creation of new firms. Our focus is on regulations governing firm creation (“entry regulations”) and on financial development. We find entry regulations hamper the creation of new firms, especially in industries that naturally should have high entry. Also, value added per employee in naturally “high entry” industries grows more slowly in countries with onerous regulations on entry. The consequences of regulatory barriers against entrepreneurship are seen, not in young firms, but in older firms, who grow more slowly and to a smaller size. Thus the absence of the disciplining effect of competition from new firms has real adverse effects. Interestingly, regulatory entry barriers have no adverse effect on entrepreneurship in corrupt countries, only in less corrupt ones. Taken together, the evidence suggests bureaucratic entry regulations, when effectively implemented, are neither benign nor welfare improving. Turning to financial development, we find that both the availability of private (bank) credit and of trade credit does aid entry in financially dependent industries. Thus unlike entry regulations, regulations that improve access to finance can aid entrepreneurship.

Luc Laeven

Papers

Financial Liberalization and Financing Constraints: Evidence from Panel Data on Emerging Economies

Finance, Firm Size, and Growth

Systemic Banking Crises Revisited

Does Financial Liberalization Reduce Financing Constraints

Barriers to Entrepreneurship