. Reactive gases and aerosols are produced by terrestrial ecosystems, processed within plant canopies, and can then be emitted into the above-canopy atmosphere. Estimates of the above-canopy fluxes are needed for quantitative earth system studies and assessments of past, present and future air quality and climate. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) is described and used to quantify net terrestrial biosphere emission of isoprene into the atmosphere. MEGAN is designed for both global and regional emission modeling and has global coverage with ~1 km2 spatial resolution. Field and laboratory investigations of the processes controlling isoprene emission are described and data available for model development and evaluation are summarized. The factors controlling isoprene emissions include biological, physical and chemical driving variables. MEGAN driving variables are derived from models and satellite and ground observations. Tropical broadleaf trees contribute almost half of the estimated global annual isoprene emission due to their relatively high emission factors and because they are often exposed to conditions that are conducive for isoprene emission. The remaining flux is primarily from shrubs which have a widespread distribution. The annual global isoprene emission estimated with MEGAN ranges from about 500 to 750 Tg isoprene (440 to 660 Tg carbon) depending on the driving variables which include temperature, solar radiation, Leaf Area Index, and plant functional type. The global annual isoprene emission estimated using the standard driving variables is ~600 Tg isoprene. Differences in driving variables result in emission estimates that differ by more than a factor of three for specific times and locations. It is difficult to evaluate isoprene emission estimates using the concentration distributions simulated using chemistry and transport models, due to the substantial uncertainties in other model components, but at least some global models produce reasonable results when using isoprene emission distributions similar to MEGAN estimates. In addition, comparison with isoprene emissions estimated from satellite formaldehyde observations indicates reasonable agreement. The sensitivity of isoprene emissions to earth system changes (e.g., climate and land-use) demonstrates the potential for large future changes in emissions. Using temperature distributions simulated by global climate models for year 2100, MEGAN estimates that isoprene emissions increase by more than a factor of two. This is considerably greater than previous estimates and additional observations are needed to evaluate and improve the methods used to predict future isoprene emissions.

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Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750-2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005-2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected 'best-estimate' global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example,

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The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

The present paper reviews existing knowledge with regard to Organic Aerosol (OA) of importance for global climate modelling and defines critical gaps needed to reduce the involved uncertainties. All pieces required for the representation of OA in a global climate model are sketched out with special attention to Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA): The emission estimates of primary carbonaceous particles and SOA precursor gases are summarized. The up-to-date understanding of the chemical formation and transformation of condensable organic material is outlined. Knowledge on the hygroscopicity of OA and measurements of optical properties of the organic aerosol constituents are summarized. The mechanisms of interactions of OA with clouds and dry and wet removal processes parameterisations in global models are outlined. This information is synthesized to provide a continuous analysis of the flow from the emitted material to the atmosphere up to the point of the climate impact of the produced organic aerosol. The sources of uncertainties at each step of this process are highlighted as areas that require further studies.

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Organic aerosol and global climate modelling: a review

Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry Coordinating Lead Authors: Kenneth L. Denman (Canada), Guy Brasseur (USA, Germany) Lead Authors: Amnat Chidthaisong (Thailand), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter M. Cox (UK), Robert E. Dickinson (USA), Didier Hauglustaine (France), Christoph Heinze (Norway, Germany), Elisabeth Holland (USA), Daniel Jacob (USA, France), Ulrike Lohmann (Switzerland), Srikanthan Ramachandran (India), Pedro Leite da Silva Dias (Brazil), Steven C. Wofsy (USA), Xiaoye Zhang (China) Contributing Authors: D. Archer (USA), V. Arora (Canada), J. Austin (USA), D. Baker (USA), J.A. Berry (USA), R. Betts (UK), G. Bonan (USA), P. Bousquet (France), J. Canadell (Australia), J. Christian (Canada), D.A. Clark (USA), M. Dameris (Germany), F. Dentener (EU), D. Easterling (USA), V. Eyring (Germany), J. Feichter (Germany), P. Friedlingstein (France, Belgium), I. Fung (USA), S. Fuzzi (Italy), S. Gong (Canada), N. Gruber (USA, Switzerland), A. Guenther (USA), K. Gurney (USA), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), J. House (UK), A. Jones (UK), C. Jones (UK), B. Karcher (Germany), M. Kawamiya (Japan), K. Lassey (New Zealand), C. Le Quere (UK, France, Canada), C. Leck (Sweden), J. Lee-Taylor (USA, UK), Y. Malhi (UK), K. Masarie (USA), G. McFiggans (UK), S. Menon (USA), J.B. Miller (USA), P. Peylin (France), A. Pitman (Australia), J. Quaas (Germany), M. Raupach (Australia), P. Rayner (France), G. Rehder (Germany), U. Riebesell (Germany), C. Rodenbeck (Germany), L. Rotstayn (Australia), N. Roulet (Canada), C. Sabine (USA), M.G. Schultz (Germany), M. Schulz (France, Germany), S.E. Schwartz (USA), W. Steffen (Australia), D. Stevenson (UK), Y. Tian (USA, China), K.E. Trenberth (USA), T. Van Noije (Netherlands), O. Wild (Japan, UK), T. Zhang (USA, China), L. Zhou (USA, China) Review Editors: Kansri Boonpragob (Thailand), Martin Heimann (Germany, Switzerland), Mario Molina (USA, Mexico) This chapter should be cited as: Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U. Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).

For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters.

Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

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The global methane budget 2000–2017

As part of the work of the Economic Commission for Europe of the United Nations Task Force on Emission Inventories, a new set of guidelines has been developed for assessing the emissions of sulphur, nitrogen oxides, NH3, CH4, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) from biogenic and other natural sources in Europe. This paper gives the background to these guidelines, describes the sources, and gives our recommended methodologies for estimating emissions. We have assembled land use and other statistics from European or national compilations and present emission estimates for the various natural/biogenic source categories based on these. Total emissions from nature derived here amount to ∼1.1 Tg S yr−1, 6–8 Tg CH4 yr−1, 70 Gg NH3 (as N) yr−1, and 13 Tg NMVOC yr−1. Estimates of biogenic NO x emissions cover a wide range, from 140 to 1500 Gg NO x (as N) yr−1. In terms of relative contribution to total European emissions for different pollutants, then NMVOC from forests and vegetation are clearly the most important emissions source. Biogenic NO x emissions (although heavily influenced by nitrogen inputs from anthropogenic activities) are very important if the higher estimates are reliable. CH4 from wetlands and sulphur from volcanoes are also significant emissions in the European budgets. On a global scale, European biogenic emissions are not significant, a consequence of the climate and size (7% of global land area) of Europe and of the destruction of natural ecosystems since prehistoric times. However, for assessing local budgets and for photochemical oxidant modeling, natural/biogenic emissions can play an important role. The most important contributor in this regard is undoubtedly forest VOC emissions, although this paper also indicates that NMVOC emissions from nonforested areas also need to be further evaluated. This paper was originally conceived as a contribution to the collection of papers arising as a result of the Workshop on Biogenic Hydrocarbons in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer, August 24–27, 1997. (Several papers arising from this workshop have been published in Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(D19) 1998.)

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Inventorying emissions from nature in Europe

Atmospheric nitrous oxide: patterns of global change during recent decades and centuries.

[1] Recent studies indicate that plants may be a previously overlooked but significant source of atmospheric CH4, though there is considerable disagreement on the mechanism of production. Our work sought to verify that woody deciduous trees grown under inundated conditions had the capacity for transporting CH4 from an anaerobic subsurface to the atmosphere and to consider if such a source could be important globally. Here, we report results from a greenhouse mesocosm study that indicate significant emissions of anaerobically produced CH4 transmitted to the atmosphere through broadleaf riparian tree species grown under flooded conditions. Using a leaf area normalized mean emission rate (0.7 ± 0.3 μg cm−2 hr−1), results were scaled globally for flooded forest regions and estimated to be 60 ± 20 Tg year−1, ∼10% of the global CH4 source. The carbon isotopic composition of CH4 emitted was found to be significantly enriched compared with expectations (δ13C ∼ −54‰) and provided an important isotopic constraint on the global source which coincides with the mean of the globally scaled greenhouse-based estimate.

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Emissions of Anaerobically Produced Methane by Trees

We measured the emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, and other environmentally important trace gases from rice fields in China The experiments were conducted near Beijing, representing temperate latitude rice agriculture, and at Guangzhou, representing tropical and subtropical agriculture These studies complement our intensive research at Tu Zu in China (subtropical) and the work near Bogor, Indonesia, representing tropical rice agriculture The experiments described here span 5 years between 1992 and 1996 The seasonally averaged methane emissions from Beijing were about 9 (5–16) mg m−2 h−1 Emissions from the first crop of the year at Guangzhou were about 5 (2–8) mg m−2 h−1 and about 30 (18–54) mg m−2 h−1 from the second crop Measurements of nitrous oxide fluxes from the same rice fields show that emissions are confined to events that consist of high fluxes decaying to zero within a few days Some of the events appear to be triggered by fertilizer applications It is apparent that rice fields using nitrogen-based fertilizers are a source of N2O, but a robust estimate of whole season average emission rate is still not possible The composite of all the N2O fluxes we observed gives a geometric mean of about 70 μg m−2 h−1 These rates are high enough to suggest that the rice fields could be a globally important source of N2O As the agricultural practices change from use of organic fertilizers to nitrogen-based fertilizers, the role of N2O emissions from rice fields may become more important in its global budget We also observed that chloroform and carbon monoxide were emitted from all fields studied The flux of CO is not large enough to be important on the global scale, but the emissions of chloroform may be

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/98JD01114

Emissions of Methane, Nitrous Oxide, and other Trace Gases from Rice fields in China

Methane emissions from rice fields are affected by a number of environmental and agricultural factors. We have analyzed our 7-year data set on methane emissions from rice fields in Tu Zu, China, to delineate the relationships between emissions and a number of variables that were measured at the same time. Our work was done in fields that were managed under prevailing agricultural practices of the region. Consequently, only the effect of factors that vary from year to year or during the growing season can be calculated. In our study we measured the effects of environmental variables (soil temperature, wind speed, sky cover) and agricultural factors (planting density, water level, rice cultivars, organic fertilizer amounts, yield). Of these variables, soil temperature had the most significant effect on methane emissions resulting in Q(10) values of about 2 (1.5-3). The effect of sky cover, and even water levels, was to change the soil temperature, which in turn affected the methane flux. Wind tended to increase emissions, possibly by agitation of the soil. Of the agricultural variables, planting density had the most significant but complex effect on methane emissions. We studied emissions from up to 4 times the normal planting density under otherwise similar agricultural conditions in the same fields. For a four fold increase in planting density the seasonal average emissions increased by about a factor of 2. Rice cultivars had a small but detectable effect. The amount of organic fertilizer and the yields did not affect methane emissions in our fields. The lack of an effect from the fertilizers is attributed to a saturation phenomenon whereby methane emissions do not respond to continual increases in organic material after some sufficiently high level.

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Martha J. Shearer

Papers

Inventorying emissions from nature in Europe

Atmospheric nitrous oxide: patterns of global change during recent decades and centuries.

Emissions of Anaerobically Produced Methane by Trees

Emissions of Methane, Nitrous Oxide, and other Trace Gases from Rice fields in China

Factors affecting methane emissions from rice fields