BACKGROUND: The efficacy of interleukin-6 receptor antagonists in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is unclear. METHODS: We evaluated tocilizumab and sarilumab in an ongoing international, multifactorial, adaptive platform trial. Adult patients with Covid-19, within 24 hours after starting organ support in the intensive care unit (ICU), were randomly assigned to receive tocilizumab (8 mg per kilogram of body weight), sarilumab (400 mg), or standard care (control). The primary outcome was respiratory and cardiovascular organ support-free days, on an ordinal scale combining in-hospital death (assigned a value of -1) and days free of organ support to day 21. The trial uses a Bayesian statistical model with predefined criteria for superiority, efficacy, equivalence, or futility. An odds ratio greater than 1 represented improved survival, more organ support-free days, or both. RESULTS: Both tocilizumab and sarilumab met the predefined criteria for efficacy. At that time, 353 patients had been assigned to tocilizumab, 48 to sarilumab, and 402 to control. The median number of organ support-free days was 10 (interquartile range, -1 to 16) in the tocilizumab group, 11 (interquartile range, 0 to 16) in the sarilumab group, and 0 (interquartile range, -1 to 15) in the control group. The median adjusted cumulative odds ratios were 1.64 (95% credible interval, 1.25 to 2.14) for tocilizumab and 1.76 (95% credible interval, 1.17 to 2.91) for sarilumab as compared with control, yielding posterior probabilities of superiority to control of more than 99.9% and of 99.5%, respectively. An analysis of 90-day survival showed improved survival in the pooled interleukin-6 receptor antagonist groups, yielding a hazard ratio for the comparison with the control group of 1.61 (95% credible interval, 1.25 to 2.08) and a posterior probability of superiority of more than 99.9%. All secondary analyses supported efficacy of these interleukin-6 receptor antagonists. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients with Covid-19 receiving organ support in ICUs, treatment with the interleukin-6 receptor antagonists tocilizumab and sarilumab improved outcomes, including survival. (REMAP-CAP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02735707.).

Interleukin-6 Receptor Antagonists in Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19.

Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis is an increasingly used approach for synthesizing and investigating treatment effect estimates. Over the past few years, numerous methods for conducting an IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA) have been proposed, often making different assumptions and modeling choices while addressing a similar research question. We conducted a literature review to provide an overview of methods for performing an IPD-MA using evidence from clinical trials or non-randomized studies when investigating treatment efficacy. With this review, we aim to assist researchers in choosing the appropriate methods and provide recommendations on their implementation when planning and conducting an IPD-MA.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jrsm.1160

Get real in individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis: a review of the methodology

Dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease (DIAD) causes predictable biological changes decades before the onset of clinical symptoms, enabling testing of interventions in the asymptomatic and symptomatic stages to delay or slow disease progression. We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled, multi-arm trial of gantenerumab or solanezumab in participants with DIAD across asymptomatic and symptomatic disease stages. Mutation carriers were assigned 3:1 to either drug or placebo and received treatment for 4-7 years. The primary outcome was a cognitive end point; secondary outcomes included clinical, cognitive, imaging and fluid biomarker measures. Fifty-two participants carrying a mutation were assigned to receive gantenerumab, 52 solanezumab and 40 placebo. Both drugs engaged their Aβ targets but neither demonstrated a beneficial effect on cognitive measures compared to controls. The solanezumab-treated group showed a greater cognitive decline on some measures and did not show benefits on downstream biomarkers. Gantenerumab significantly reduced amyloid plaques, cerebrospinal fluid total tau, and phospho-tau181 and attenuated increases of neurofilament light chain. Amyloid-related imaging abnormalities edema was observed in 19.2% (3 out of 11 were mildly symptomatic) of the gantenerumab group, 2.5% of the placebo group and 0% of the solanezumab group. Gantenerumab and solanezumab did not slow cognitive decline in symptomatic DIAD. The asymptomatic groups showed no cognitive decline; symptomatic participants had declined before reaching the target doses.

A trial of gantenerumab or solanezumab in dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease.

Direct-acting antivirals after successful treatment of early hepatocellular carcinoma improve survival in HCV-cirrhotic patients.

Background The efficacy of interleukin-6 receptor antagonists in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is unclear. Methods We evaluated tocilizumab and sarilumab in an ongoing international, multifactorial, adaptive platform trial. Adult patients with Covid-19, within 24 hours of commencing organ support in an intensive care unit, were randomized to receive either tocilizumab (8mg/kg) or sarilumab (400mg) or standard care (control). The primary outcome was an ordinal scale combining in-hospital mortality (assigned −1) and days free of organ support to day 21. The trial uses a Bayesian statistical model with pre-defined triggers to declare superiority, efficacy, equivalence or futility. Results Tocilizumab and sarilumab both met the pre-defined triggers for efficacy. At the time of full analysis 353 patients had been assigned to tocilizumab, 48 to sarilumab and 402 to control. Median organ support-free days were 10 (interquartile range [IQR] −1, 16), 11 (IQR 0, 16) and 0 (IQR −1, 15) for tocilizumab, sarilumab and control, respectively. Relative to control, median adjusted odds ratios were 1.64 (95% credible intervals [CrI] 1.25, 2.14) for tocilizumab and 1.76 (95%CrI 1.17, 2.91) for sarilumab, yielding >99.9% and 99.5% posterior probabilities of superiority compared with control. Hospital mortality was 28.0% (98/350) for tocilizumab, 22.2% (10/45) for sarilumab and 35.8% (142/397) for control. All secondary outcomes and analyses supported efficacy of these IL-6 receptor antagonists. Conclusions In critically ill patients with Covid-19 receiving organ support in intensive care, treatment with the IL-6 receptor antagonists, tocilizumab and sarilumab, improved outcome, including survival. (ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT02735707)

/pdf/interleukin-6-receptor-antagonists-in-critically-ill-37ayh8ye9x.pdf

Interleukin-6 Receptor Antagonists in Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19 - Preliminary report

Clinical trials rarely, if ever, occur in a vacuum. Generally, large amounts of clinical data are available prior to the start of a study, particularly on the current study's control arm. There is obvious appeal in using (i.e., 'borrowing') this information. With historical data providing information on the control arm, more trial resources can be devoted to the novel treatment while retaining accurate estimates of the current control arm parameters. This can result in more accurate point estimates, increased power, and reduced type I error in clinical trials, provided the historical information is sufficiently similar to the current control data. If this assumption of similarity is not satisfied, however, one can acquire increased mean square error of point estimates due to bias and either reduced power or increased type I error depending on the direction of the bias. In this manuscript, we review several methods for historical borrowing, illustrating how key parameters in each method affect borrowing behavior, and then, we compare these methods on the basis of mean square error, power and type I error. We emphasize two main themes. First, we discuss the idea of 'dynamic' (versus 'static') borrowing. Second, we emphasize the decision process involved in determining whether or not to include historical borrowing in terms of the perceived likelihood that the current control arm is sufficiently similar to the historical data. Our goal is to provide a clear review of the key issues involved in historical borrowing and provide a comparison of several methods useful for practitioners.

/pdf/use-of-historical-control-data-for-assessing-treatment-30keafqzck.pdf

Use of historical control data for assessing treatment effects in clinical trials.

In this report we describe the Bayesian analysis of a logistic dose-response curve in a Phase I study, and we present two simple and intuitive numerical approaches to construction of prior probability distributions for the model parameters. We combine these priors with the expert prior opinion and compare the results of the analyses with those obtained from the use of alternative prior formulations.

Bayesian fitting of a logistic dose-response curve with numerically derived priors.

Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Assessment By Multiparametric Flow Cytometry Is Prognostic for Progression-Free Survival in Phase 1/1b Relapsed/Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) Patients Treated with Idasanutlin MDM2 Antagonist

Nelson Kinnersley

Papers

Use of historical control data for assessing treatment effects in clinical trials.

Bayesian fitting of a logistic dose-response curve with numerically derived priors.

Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Assessment By Multiparametric Flow Cytometry Is Prognostic for Progression-Free Survival in Phase 1/1b Relapsed/Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) Patients Treated with Idasanutlin MDM2 Antagonist