Showing papers by "Prabhat Jha published in 2002"

Estimates of global and regional smoking prevalence in 1995, by age and sex.

Abstract: Objectives. We calculated regional and sex- and age-specific smoking prevalence estimates worldwide in 1995. Methods. Sex-specific smoking prevalence data from studies in 139 countries and age distribution data from 7 studies were analyzed. Results. Globally, 29% of persons aged 15 years or older were regular smokers in 1995. Four fifths of the world's 1.1 billion smokers lived in low- or middle-income countries. East Asian countries accounted for a disproportionately high percentage (38%) of the world's smokers. Males accounted for four fifths of all smokers, and prevalence among males and females was highest among those aged 30 to 49 years (34%). Conclusions. Future decades will see dramatic increases in tobacco-attributable deaths in low- and middle-income regions. Although much of this excess mortality can be prevented if smokers stop smoking, quitting remains rare in low- and middle-income countries. (Am J Public Health. 2002;92:1002–1006)

Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemics in Botswana and India: impact of interventions to prevent transmission

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To describe a dynamic compartmental simulation model for Botswana and India, developed to identify the best strategies for preventing spread of HIV/AIDS. METHODS: The following interventions were considered: a behavioural intervention focused on female sex workers; a conventional programme for the treatment of sexually transmitted infections; a programme for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission; an antiretroviral treatment programme for the entire population, based on a single regimen; and an antiretroviral treatment programme for sex workers only, also based on a single regimen. FINDINGS: The interventions directed at sex workers as well as those dealing with sexually transmitted infections showed promise for long-term prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, although their relative ranking was uncertain. In India, a sex worker intervention would drive the epidemic to extinction. In Botswana none of the interventions alone would achieve this, although the prevalence of HIV would be reduced by almost 50%. Mother-to-child transmission programmes could reduce HIV transmission to infants, but would have no impact on the epidemic itself. In the long run, interventions targeting sexual transmission would be even more effective in reducing the number of HIV-infected children than mother-to-child transmission programmes. Antiretroviral therapy would prevent transmission in the short term, but eventually its effects would wane because of the development of drug resistance. CONCLUSION: Depending on the country and how the antiretroviral therapy was targeted, 25-100% of HIV cases would be drug- resistant after 30 years of use.

Improving the health of the global poor.

Abstract: We analyzed the technical basis for a major global program to reduce disease among the poor. Effective interventions exist against the few diseases which most account for excess mortality among the poor. Achieving high coverage of effective interventions requires a well-functioning health system, as well as overcoming a set of financial and nonfinancial constraints. The annual incremental cost would be between $40 billion and $52 billion by 2015 in 83 low-income and sub-Saharan African countries. Such a program is feasible and would avoid millions of child, maternal, and adult deaths annually in poor countries.

Process technology for the continuous hot band annealing of 17%Cr ferritic stainless steel

Abstract: As an alternative to time- and energy-consuming batch annealing, process technology for the continuous hot band annealing of 17%Cr ferritic stainless steel has been established. Process parameters (i.e., temperature and time) for the hot band annealing were optimized in the laboratory and, subsequently, plant trials were conducted. The impact toughness value of the annealed hot band was found to be the most crucial parameter to assess the cold rollability in the commercial run. When the hot bands were continuously annealed at 900 °C, the improved impact toughness values resulted in successful cold rolling to the desired thickness. The impact toughness value and subsequent cold rollability were found to be related to the formation of martensite volume%. Annealing the hot band in the lower temperature range of the two-phase (α+r) region (i.e., 900 °C) yielded the best result. Improvement in roping index has been reported as a result of the weakening of the texture of the continuous-annealed hot band.

Mother-to-child HIV transmission and ARVs.

Abstract: Antiretroviral (ARV) therapy is used for both treatment and prevention of HIV infection. It decreases patients' viral loads, dramatically improves their health, and delays death ([1][1]). ARVs also successfully reduce mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT). Combined with avoidance of breast-