Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

We will review some of the major results in random graphs and some of the more challenging open problems. We will cover algorithmic and structural questions. We will touch on newer models, including those related to the WWW.

Random graphs

Social Network Analysis

An Introduction to MultiAgent Systems.

Recommender Systems (RSs) are software tools and techniques providing suggestions for items to be of use to a user. In this introductory chapter we briefly discuss basic RS ideas and concepts. Our main goal is to delineate, in a coherent and structured way, the chapters included in this handbook and to help the reader navigate the extremely rich and detailed content that the handbook offers.

/pdf/introduction-to-recommender-systems-handbook-4qtj503mvw.pdf

Introduction to Recommender Systems Handbook

Coalition formation is a fundamental type of interaction that involves the creation of coherent groupings of distinct, autonomous, agents in order to efficiently achieve their individual or collective goals. Forming effective coalitions is a major research challenge in the field of multi-agent systems. Central to this endeavour is the problem of determining which of the many possible coalitions to form in order to achieve some goal. This usually requires calculating a value for every possible coalition, known as the coalition value, which indicates how beneficial that coalition would be if it was formed. Once these values are calculated, the agents usually need to find a combination of coalitions, in which every agent belongs to exactly one coalition, and by which the overall outcome of the system is maximized. However, this coalition structure generation problem is extremely challenging due to the number of possible solutions that need to be examined, which grows exponentially with the number of agents involved. To date, therefore, many algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem using different techniques -- ranging from dynamic programming, to integer programming, to stochastic search -- all of which suffer from major limitations relating to execution time, solution quality, and memory requirements.

With this in mind, we develop an anytime algorithm to solve the coalition structure generation problem. Specifically, the algorithm uses a novel representation of the search space, which partitions the space of possible solutions into sub-spaces such that it is possible to compute upper and lower bounds on the values of the best coalition structures in them. These bounds are then used to identify the sub-spaces that have no potential of containing the optimal solution so that they can be pruned. The algorithm, then, searches through the remaining sub-spaces very efficiently using a branch-and-bound technique to avoid examining all the solutions within the searched subspace(s). In this setting, we prove that our algorithm enumerates all coalition structures efficiently by avoiding redundant and invalid solutions automatically. Moreover, in order to effectively test our algorithm we develop a new type of input distribution which allows us to generate more reliable benchmarks compared to the input distributions previously used in the field. Given this new distribution, we show that for 27 agents our algorithm is able to find solutions that are optimal in 0.175% of the time required by the fastest available algorithm in the literature. The algorithm is anytime, and if interrupted before it would have normally terminated, it can still provide a solution that is guaranteed to be within a bound from the optimal one. Moreover, the guarantees we provide on the quality of the solution are significantly better than those provided by the previous state of the art algorithms designed for this purpose. For example, for the worst case distribution given 25 agents, our algorithm is able to find a 90% efficient solution in around 10% of time it takes to find the optimal solution.

/pdf/an-anytime-algorithm-for-optimal-coalition-structure-2i6dfu5o2j.pdf

An anytime algorithm for optimal coalition structure generation

Inspired by the social and economic benefits of diversity, we analyze over 9 million papers and 6 million scientists to study the relationship between research impact and five classes of diversity: ethnicity, discipline, gender, affiliation, and academic age. Using randomized baseline models, we establish the presence of homophily in ethnicity, gender and affiliation. We then study the effect of diversity on scientific impact, as reflected in citations. Remarkably, of the classes considered, ethnic diversity had the strongest correlation with scientific impact. To further isolate the effects of ethnic diversity, we used randomized baseline models and again found a clear link between diversity and impact. To further support these findings, we use coarsened exact matching to compare the scientific impact of ethnically diverse papers and scientists with closely-matched control groups. Here, we find that ethnic diversity resulted in an impact gain of 10.63% for papers, and 47.67% for scientists.

/pdf/the-preeminence-of-ethnic-diversity-in-scientific-258d440vvt.pdf

The preeminence of ethnic diversity in scientific collaboration

The Internet and social media have fuelled enormous interest in social network analysis. New tools continue to be developed and used to analyse our personal connections, with particular emphasis on detecting communities or identifying key individuals in a social network. This raises privacy concerns that are likely to exacerbate in the future. With this in mind, we ask the question ‘Can individuals or groups actively manage their connections to evade social network analysis tools?’ By addressing this question, the general public may better protect their privacy, oppressed activist groups may better conceal their existence and security agencies may better understand how terrorists escape detection. We first study how an individual can evade ‘node centrality’ analysis while minimizing the negative impact that this may have on his or her influence. We prove that an optimal solution to this problem is difficult to compute. Despite this hardness, we demonstrate how even a simple heuristic, whereby attention is restricted to the individual’s immediate neighbourhood, can be surprisingly effective in practice; for example, it could easily disguise Mohamed Atta’s leading position within the World Trade Center terrorist network. We also study how a community can increase the likelihood of being overlooked by community-detection algorithms. We propose a measure of concealment—expressing how well a community is hidden—and use it to demonstrate the effectiveness of a simple heuristic, whereby members of the community either ‘unfriend’ certain other members or ‘befriend’ some non-members in a coordinated effort to camouflage their community. Waniek and colleagues show that individuals and communities can disguise themselves from detection online by standard social network analysis tools through simple changes to their social network connections.

Hiding individuals and communities in a social network

Forming effective coalitions is a major research challenge in the field of multi-agent systems. Central to this endeavour is the problem of partitioning the set of agents into exhaustive and disjoint coalitions such that the social welfare is maximized. This coalition structure generation problem is extremely challenging due to the exponential number of partitions that need to be examined. Specifically, given n agents, there are O(nn) possible partitions. To date, the only algorithm that can find an optimal solution in O(3n) is the Dynamic Programming (DP) algorithm, due to Rothkopf et al. However, one of the main limitations of DP is that it requires a significant amount of memory. In this paper, we devise an Improved Dynamic Programming algorithm (IDP) that is proved to perform fewer operations than DP (e.g. 38.7% of the operations given 25 agents), and is shown to use only 33.3% of the memory in the best case, and 66.6% in the worst.

An improved dynamic programming algorithm for coalition structure generation

https://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/people/michael.wooldridge/pubs/aij2015a.pdf

Talal Rahwan

Papers

An anytime algorithm for optimal coalition structure generation

The preeminence of ethnic diversity in scientific collaboration

Hiding individuals and communities in a social network

An improved dynamic programming algorithm for coalition structure generation

Coalition structure generation