Tropical forests house over half of Earth’s biodiversity and are an important influence on the climate system. These forests are experiencing escalating human influence, altering their health and the provision of important ecosystem functions and services. Impacts started with hunting and millennia-old megafaunal extinctions (phase I), continuing via low-intensity shifting cultivation (phase II), to today’s global integration, dominated by intensive permanent agriculture, industrial logging, and attendant fires and fragmentation (phase III). Such ongoing pressures, together with an intensification of global environmental change, may severely degrade forests in the future (phase IV, global simplification) unless new “development without destruction” pathways are established alongside climate change–resilient landscape designs.

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Increasing human dominance of tropical forests.

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53–0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth’s climate.

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Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests

The high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher's alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between similar to 40,000 and similar to 53,000, i.e., at the high end of previous estimates. Contrary to common assumption, the Indo-Pacific region was found to be as species-rich as the Neotropics, with both regions having a minimum of similar to 19,000-25,000 tree species. Continental Africa is relatively depauperate with a minimum of similar to 4,500-6,000 tree species. Very few species are shared among the African, American, and the Indo-Pacific regions. We provide a methodological framework for estimating species richness in trees that may help refine species richness estimates of tree-dependent taxa.

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An estimate of the number of tropical tree species

The Anthropocene is characterized as an epoch when human influence has begun to fundamentally alter many aspects of the Earth system and many of the planet’s biomes. Here, we review and synthesize our understanding of Anthropocene changes in tropical forests. Key facets include deforestation driven by agricultural expansion, timber and wood extraction, the loss of fauna that maintain critical ecological connections, the spread of fire, landscape fragmentation, the spread of second-growth forests, new species invasion and pathogen spread, increasing CO2, and climate change. The patterns of change are spatially heterogeneous, are often characterized by strong interactions among different drivers, can have both large-scale and remote effects, and can play out through ecological cascades over long timescales. As a consequence, most tropical forests are on a trajectory to becoming altered ecosystems, with the degree of alteration dependent on the intensity and duration of the current bottleneck of human-induced pressures. We highlight the importance of this understanding to develop the strategies necessary for shaping the transition of tropical forests through the early Anthropocene, as well as highlight the opportunities and challenges for the tropical forest science community in the coming decades.

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-environ-030713-155141

Tropical Forests in the Anthropocene

Summary
1. Tropical forests account for one-third of the total metabolic activity of the Earth’s land surface. Hence, understanding the controls on tropical forest photosynthesis and respiration, and the allocation of the products of photosynthesis to canopy, woody tissue and rhizosphere, is important to understand global ecosystem functioning.

2. I review how studies in tropical ecosystem ecology have progressed since their inception in the 1960s towards developing a quantitative, mechanistic and global description of the carbon cycle of tropical vegetation.

3. I present a synthesis of studies in tropical forest sites in the Americas and Asia for which gross primary productivity (GPP) has been reported, and a subset of these sites for which net primary productivity (NPP) and ecosystem carbon use efficiency (CUE) have been estimated. GPP ranges between 30 and 40 Mg C ha−1 year−1 in lowland moist tropical forests and declines with elevation. CUE in tropical forests is at the low end of the global range reported for forests.

4. A pathway and framework are presented to explain the link between photosynthesis and tropical forest biomass, and to explain differences in carbon cycling and biomass between forests. Variation in CUE and allocation of NPP can be as important as variation in GPP in explaining differences in tropical forest growth rates between sites.

5. Finally, I explore some of the key questions surrounding the functioning and future of tropical forests in the rapidly changing conditions of the early Anthropocene.

6. Synthesis.There have been significant recent advances in quantifying the carbon cycle of tropical forests, but our understanding of causes of variation amongst forests is still poor. Moreover, we should expect all tropical forests in the 21st century, whether intact or disturbed, to be undergoing rapid change in function and composition; the key challenge for tropical ecosystem ecologists is to determine and understand the major and most fundamental aspects of this change.

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The productivity, metabolism and carbon cycle of tropical forest vegetation

Summary 1. Comparative analyses of diversity variation among and between regions allow testing of alternative explanatory models and ideas. Here, we explore the relationships between the tree α -diversity of small rain forest plots in Africa and in Amazonia and climatic

/pdf/the-odd-man-out-might-climate-explain-the-lower-tree-a-53x448dlho.pdf

Yves A. Issembe

Papers

The odd man out? Might climate explain the lower tree α‐diversity of African rain forests relative to Amazonian rain forests?