BI Norwegian Business School

About: BI Norwegian Business School is a education organization based out in Oslo, Norway. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Corporate governance & Computer science. The organization has 525 authors who have published 2766 publications receiving 55406 citations. The organization is also known as: Handelshøyskolen BI.

On the Correlation between Commodity and Equity Returns: Implications for Portfolio Allocation

Abstract: In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such claims by looking at various measures of correlation. Next, we assess what are the implications of higher correlations between oil and equity prices for asset allocation. We develop a time-varying Bayesian Dynamic Conditional Correlation model for volatilities and correlations and find that joint modelling commodity and equity prices produces more accurate point and density forecasts, which lead to substantial benefits in portfolio allocation. This, however, comes at the price of higher portfolio volatility. Therefore, the popular view that commodities are to be included in one's portfolio as a hedging device is not grounded.

Regional Policies and EU Enlargement

Abstract: Taking both the enlargement process, as currently defined by the EU, and the structural funds as a given, this Paper examines what is the best way for candidate countries to fuel real convergence. The experience from earlier EU enlargements and current economic conditions within the CEEC10 suggest that placing too high expectations on enlargement per se would be misplaced. Further, regional transfers taking place under the structural and cohesion policies are unlikely to become the growth engines of the CEEC10. They may increase income in the receiving countries by an amount equal to the one transferred, but there is no evidence they will have an impact on long-run growth rates. To achieve long-run growth at rates higher than average an appropriate mix of European and national policies is needed. This includes further fostering of trade integration within the EU, restructuring public spending, creation of supply side incentives by proper reforms of fiscal and social insurance policies, free movement of capital and labour, together with a competitive level of labour income taxation. Based on historical experience two types of policies appear to be particularly relevant. First, public programs for long-term income support, corporate subsidies and other forms of income transfer have negative effect on economic growth. We believe they should be terminated as soon as possible. Second, labour and capital mobility are good for growth and economic convergence. In particular, the adoption or continuation of various transfer and/or regulation policies aimed at eliminating labour migration from the CEEC is wrong and damaging. The fear of migration has been magnified by skillful politicians: Migrations in past enlargements have been small. There is no reason to expect it to be large in this case.

MPC heterogeneity and household balance sheets

Abstract: Using Norwegian administrative data, we study how sizable lottery prizes affect household expenditure and savings. Expenditure responses (MPCs) spike in the year of winning, with a mean estimate of 0.35, and thereafter fall markedly. Controlling for all items on the household balance sheet and characteristics such as education and age, MPCs vary with the amount won and liquid assets only. Shock size matters: The MPC among the 25 percent winning least is twice as high as among the 25 percent winning most. Many households are wealthy, illiquid and have high MPCs, consistent with 2-asset models of consumer choice.

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth

Abstract: We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twenty years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, in a given cross-section, individuals earn markedly different returns on their assets, with a difference of 500 basis points between the 10th and the 90th percentile. Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth. Fourth, returns have an individual permanent component that accounts for 60% of the explained variation. Fifth, for wealth below the 95th percentile, the individual permanent component accounts for the bulk of the correlation between returns and wealth; the correlation at the top reflects both compensation for risk and the correlation of wealth with the individual permanent component. Finally, the permanent component of the return to wealth is also (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.