Showing papers by "Federal Reserve System published in 1999"

Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts

Abstract: We formulate an optimizing-agent model in which both labor and product markets exhibit monopolistic competition and staggered nominal contracts. The unconditional expectation of average household utility can be expressed in terms of the unconditional variances of the output gap, price inflation, and wage inflation. Monetary policy cannot replicate the Pareto-optimal equilibrium that would occur under completely flexible wages and prices; that is, the model exhibits a tradeoff between stabilizing the output gap, price inflation, and wage inflation. The Pareto optimum is attainable only if either wages or prices are completely flexible. For reasonable calibrations of the model, we characterize the optimal policy rule. Furthermore, strict price inflation targeting is clearly suboptimal, whereas rules that also respond to either the output gap or wage inflation are nearly optimal.

The consolidation of the financial services industry: Causes, consequences, and implications for the future

Abstract: This article designs a framework for evaluating the causes, consequences, and future implications of financial services industry consolidation, reviews the extant research literature within the context of this framework (over 250 references), and suggests fruitful avenues for future research. The evidence is consistent with increases in market power from some types of consolidation; improvements in profit eAciency and diversification of risks, but little or no cost eAciency improvement on average; relatively little eAect on the availability of services to small customers; potential improvements in payments system eAciency; and potential costs on the financial system from increases in systemic risk or expansion of the financial safety net. ” 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

Abstract: We examine the reliability of alternative output detrending methods, with special attention to the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap. We show that ex post revisions of the estimated gap are of the same order of magnitude as the estimated gap itself and that these revisions are highly persistent. Although important, the revision of published data is not the primary source of revisions in measured output gaps; the bulk of the problem is due to the pervasive unreliability of end-of-sample estimates of the trend in output. Multivariate methods that incorporate information from inflation to estimate the output gap are not more reliable than their univariate counterparts.

State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output

Abstract: Economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs. In such a setting, optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy. Yet, while widely discussed, statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models. This paper develops a new, tractable theoretical state-dependent pricing framework. We use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks, the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand, and the interest sensitivity of money demand.

Controlling for Heterogeneity in Gravity Models of Trade and Integration

Abstract: This paper compares various specifications of the gravity model of trade as nested versions of a general specification that uses bilateral country-pair fixed effects to control for heterogeneity. For each specification, we show that the atheoretical restrictions used to obtain them from the general model are not supported statistically. Because the gravity model has become the "workhorse" baseline model for estimating the effects of international integration, this has important empirical implications. In particular, we show that, unless heterogeneity is accounted for correctly, gravity models can greatly overestimate the effects of integration on the volume of trade.

Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models

Abstract: We examine the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests for equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to 1-step ahead forecasts from nested parametric models. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of two standard tests and one new test of encompassing. Tables of asymptotically valid critical values are provided. Monte Carlo methods are then used to evaluate the size and power of the tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing. The simulations indicate that post-sample tests can be reasonably well sized. Of the post-sample tests considered, the encompassing test proposed in this paper is the most powerful. We conclude with an empirical application regarding the predictive content of unemployment for inflation.

Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era

Abstract: The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the bound on macroeconomic stabilization and to explore how policy can be designed to minimize these effects. During particularly severe contractions, open-market operations alone may be insufficient to restore equilibrium; some other stimulus is needed. Abstracting from such rare events, if policy follows the Taylor rule and targets a zero inflation rate, there is a significant increase in the variability of output but not inflation. However, a simple modification to the Taylor rule yields a dramatic reduction in the detrimental effects of the zero bound.

Monopoly Rights: A Barrier to Riches

Abstract: Our thesis is that poor countries are poor because they employ arrangements for which the equilibrium outcomes are characterized by inferior technologies being used, and being used inefficiently. In this paper, we analyze the consequences of one such arrangement. In each industry, the arrangement enables a coalition of factor suppliers to be the monopoly seller of its input services to all firms using a particular production process. We find that eliminating this monopoly arrangement could well increase output by roughly a factor of 3 without any increase in inputs.

Loss aversion in a consumption-savings model

Abstract: We propose a model of consumption and saving based on Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory that implies a fundamental asymmetry in consumption behavior inconsistent with other models of consumption. When there is sufficient income uncertainty, a person resists lowering consumption in response to bad news about future income. This resistance is greater than the resistance to increasing consumption in response to good news. We present empirical evidence from five countries that confirms this behavior.

Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets

Abstract: This paper examines precautionary behavior by relating job-loss risk to household net worth. We use existing best practice and some new strategies to deal with some problematic issues inherent in this literature regarding proxying uncertainty, instrumentation, and incorporating theoretical restrictions. We do not find precautionary variation in the wealth holdings of households with low permanent income, but do find precautionary effects for moderate and higher-income households. When the dependent variable is total net worth, these findings are robust to several alternative specifications. But we do not find precautionary responses in subaggregates of wealth that exclude home equity.

Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era

Abstract: The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the bound on macroeconomic stabilization and to explore how policy can be designed to minimize these effects. During particularly severe contractions, open-market operations alone may be insufficient to restore equilibrium; some other stimulus is needed. Abstracting from such rare events, if policy follows the Taylor rule and targets a zero inflation rate, there is a significant increase in the variability of output but not inflation. However, a simple modification to the Taylor rule yields a dramatic reduction in the detrimental effects of the zero bound.

Do Real Estate Prices and Stock Prices Move Together? An International Analysis

Abstract: The relationship between stock prices and real estate prices has been the subject of substantial debate in both the academic and practitioner literatures. Existing studies have focused on the time series of stock and real estate returns using data from a single country, such as the U.S. By necessity, these studies examine return and price changes over short intervals, creating a bias when property values are smoothed from year to year. Using data from 17 different countries over 14 years, this paper examines the relation between stock returns and changes in property values and rents. Consistent with other country-specific studies, we find that, with the exception of Japan, the contemporaneous relation between yearly real estate price changes and stock returns is not statistically significant. However, when the data are pooled across countries and when we look at longer measurement intervals, a significant relation between stock returns and both rents and value changes becomes apparent. Real estate prices are also found to be significantly influenced by GDP growth rates and provide a good long-term hedge against inflation but a poor year-to-year hedge.

Controlling for Heterogeneity in Gravity Models of Trade

Abstract: This paper argues that it is necessary to allow for country-pair heterogeneity when using the gravity model to estimate international trade flows. We propose and estimate a fixed-effects model that eliminates the heterogeneity bias inherent in standard methods. Further, we show that there is no statistical support for the restrictions necessary to obtain existing empirical models, which are special cases of our model. Because the gravity model has become the ‘workhorse’ baseline model for estimating the effects of international integration, this has important empirical implications. In particular, our results suggest that standard gravity estimates of the effects of integration can differ a great deal from what is obtained when heterogeneity is accounted for. (JEL F15, F17)

Is Corporate Governance Ineffective in Emerging Markets

Abstract: I test whether corporate governance is ineffective in emerging markets by estimating the link between CEO turnover and firm performance for over 1,200 firms in eight emerging markets. While previous papers on corporate governance in emerging markets have studied corporate governance mechanisms, such as concentrated ownership, I study a corporate governance outcome: are poorly performing managers replaced? Others have answered this question in the affirmative for the United States and other developed countries. This paper is the first to address this question for emerging markets. I find two main results. First, CEOs of emerging market firms are more likely to lose their jobs when their firm’s performance is poor, suggesting that corporate governance is not ineffective in emerging markets. The magnitude of the relationship is surprisingly similar to what Kaplan (1994a) found for the United States. Second, for the subset of firms with a large domestic shareholder, there is no link between CEO turnover and firm performance. For this subset of emerging market firms, corporate governance appears to be ineffective.

Can Bank Health Affect Investment? Evidence from Japan

Abstract: Does weakness in the banking sector adversely affect the real economy? If so, how large is the effect? In this article I answer these questions for Japan in 1991-92. I test whether a firm's investment is sensitive to the financial health of its main bank, controlling for stock market valuation and cash flow. Investment is lower by 30 percent at firms that have one of the lowest rated banks as their main bank. Because the weakest banks deal with few firms, the estimated effect of the problems in the banking sector on the Japanese economy during this period is small.

Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration

Abstract: This paper provides cumulative distribution functions, densities, and finite sample critical values for the single-equation error correction statistic for testing cointegration. Graphs and response surfaces summarize extensive Monte Carlo simulations and highlight simple dependencies of the statistic's quantiles on the number of variables in the error correction model, the choice of deterministic components, and the estimation sample size. The response surfaces provide a convenient way for calculating finite sample critical values at standard levels; and a computer program, freely available over the Internet, can be used to calculate both critical values and p-values. Three empirical examples illustrate these tools.

Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability

Abstract: We study the design of monetary policy in a low inflation environment taking into account the limitations imposed by the zero bound on nominal interest rates. Using numerical dynamic programming methods, we compute optimal policies in a simple, calibrated openeconomy model and evaluate the eect of the liquidity trap generated by the zero bound. We consider the possibility that the quantity of base money may aect output and inflation even when the interest rate is constrained at zero and explicitly account for the substantial degree of uncertainty regarding such quantity eects. As an example of such a quantity eect, we focus on the portfolio balance channel through which changes in relative money supplies influence the exchange rate. We nd that the optimal policy near price stability is asymmetric, that is, as inflation declines, policy turns expansionary sooner and more aggressively than would be optimal in the absence of the zero bound. As a consequence, the average level of inflation is biased upwards. These results indicate that policymakers are faced with a tradeo between the level of inflation and economic stabilization performance when the economy is operating near the zero bound. Finally, we discuss operational issues associated with the interpretation and implementation of policy at the zero bound in relation to the recent situation in Japan.

How important are small banks to small business lending

Abstract: Typically, small banks lend a larger proportion of their assets to small businesses than do large banks. The recent wave of bank mergers has thinned the ranks of small banks, raising the concern that small firms may find it difficult to access bank credit. However, bank consolidation will reduce small business credit only if small banks enjoy an advantage in lending to small businesses. We test the existence of a small bank cost advantage in small business lending by conducting the following simple test: If such advantages exist, then we should observe small businesses in areas with few small banks to have less bank credit. Using data on small business borrowers from the 1993 National Survey of Small Business Finance, we find that the probability of a small firm having a line of credit from a bank does not decrease in the long run when there are fewer small banks in the area, although short-run disruptions may occur. Nor do we find that firms in areas with few small banks are any more likely to repay trade credit late, suggesting that such firms are no more credit constrained than firms in areas with many small banks.

Chapter 25 Government debt

Abstract: This chapter surveys the literature on the macroeconomic effects of government debt. It begins by discussing the data on debt and deficits, including the historical time series, measurement issues, and projections of future fiscal policy. The chapter then presents the conventional theory of government debt, which emphasizes aggregate demand in the short run and crowding out in the long run. It next examines the theoretical and empirical debate over the theory of debt neutrality called Ricardian equivalence. Finally, the chapter considers various normative perspectives about how the government should use its ability to borrow.

CONSISTENT WEIGHT DESIGN FOR THE 1989, 1992 AND 1995 SCFs, AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH

Abstract: Estimates using survey data are determined by two factors: the data collected and the survey weights. This paper discusses the design and calculation of a set of consistent weights for the Surveys of Consumer Finances. Taking both these weights and the multiply-imputed survey data, we look at estimates of changes in the distribution of wealth over the first half of the 1990s.

Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between movements in consumer sentiment and stock prices. At the aggregate level, the two share a strong contemporaneous relationship an increase in equity values boosts sentiment. However, I also sought to examine the nature of the relationship between the two. Does an increase in stock prices raise aggregate sentiment because people are wealthier or because they use movements in stock prices as an indicator of future economic activity and potential labor income growth? Using individual observations from the Michigan survey I found results more consistent with the view that people use movements in equity prices as a leading indicator. Although the findings do not rule out a traditional wealth effect, they do raise some questions about the causal role of wealth in aggregate spending.

Reexamining stock valuation and inflation: the implications of analysts' earnings forecasts

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of inflation on stock valuations and expected long-run returns. Ex ante estimates of expected long-run returns are constructed by incorporating analysts' earnings forecasts into a variant of the Campbell-Shiller dividend-price ratio model. The negative relation between equity valuations and expected inflation is found to be the result of two effects: a rise in expected inflation coincides with both lower expected real earnings growth and higher required real returns. The earnings channel mostly reflects a negative relation between expected long-term earnings growth and expected inflation. The effect of expected inflation on required (long-run) real stock returns is also substantial. An increase of one percentage point in expected inflation is estimated to raise required real stock returns about one percentage point, which on average would imply a 20% decline in stock prices. But the inflation factor in expected real stock returns is also in long-term Treasury yields; consequ...

An Investigation of the Risk and Return Relation at Long Horizons

Abstract: This paper examines the relation between expected stock returns and their conditional volatility over different holding periods and across different states of the economy. Seminonparametric density estimation and Monte Carlo integration are used to obtain the expected returns and conditional volatility at various holding intervals. We uncover a significantly positive risk and return relation at long holding intervals, such as one and two years, which is nonexistent at short holding periods such as one month. We also show that the existing finding in the literature of a negative risk and return relation may be attributable to misspecification.

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from the Employment Cost Index

Abstract: We examine the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity using the microdata underlying the BLS’s employment cost index--an extensive, establishment-based dataset with detailed information on wage and benefit costs. We find stronger evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity than did previous studies using panel data on individuals. Firms appear able to circumvent part, but not all, of this rigidity by varying benefits: Total compensation displays modestly less rigidity than do wages alone. Given our estimated amount of rigidity, a simple model predicts that the disinflation over the 1980s should have raised equilibrium unemployment notably. This prediction stands in contrast to the actual behavior of unemployment over this period: The addition of a term capturing the cost of rigidity (that rises as inflation falls) has no additional explanatory power in a standard Phillips Curve equation.