Showing papers by "Swedish National Defence College published in 2012"

Geographic Information Analysis for Sustainable Development and Economic Planning: New Technologies

Abstract: A GIS implementation of a model of systemic vulnerability assessment in urbanized areas exposed to combined risk of landslide and flood

The heritability of emergent leadership: Age and gender as moderating factors

Abstract: In this study, we examined the moderating influences of gender and age with respect to testing the heritability of leadership emergence. A large data base of 12,112 twins from Sweden was used in the current study to decompose the variance of emergent leadership into an unobservable genetic component and environmental components that are either common or unshared among twin pairs. Consistent with prior leadership research on genetics, we found that a genetic factor is able to explain a significant proportion of the variation across individuals in predicting how twins perceive their emergent leadership behavior (about 44% for women and 37% for men). Furthermore, we also found that the magnitude of genetic influence on emergent leadership varied with age, but only for women with the heritability estimate being highest for the mid-age women versus lowest for the older women. Implications for advancing research on the genetic and environmental influences on leadership emergence are discussed.

Gaming the Game: A Study of the Gamer Mode in Educational Wargaming

Abstract: A risk associated with the use of games in training and education is that players “game the game,” instead of focusing on their learning goals. The term gamer mode is proposed to describe this attitude. A player with a gamer-mode attitude strives to achieve goals that are optimal for winning the game, but suboptimal with respect to educational objectives. In this study of cadets playing an educational wargame to learn ground warfare tactics, the author examined occurrences of gamer mode. The results show that gamer mode on and off emerged in all analyzed sessions. Cadets' understanding of the wargame was different from what the instructors expected. This study discusses why it is important to avoid situations where the gamer mode emerges and also speculates on the sources that generate this attitude-the game itself, the educational setting, and the participants' previous experiences.

Cyber Warfare and the Laws of War

Abstract: The information revolution has transformed both modern societies and the way in which they conduct warfare. Cyber Warfare and the Laws of War analyses the status of computer network attacks in international law and examines their treatment under the laws of armed conflict. The first part of the book deals with the resort to force by states and discusses the threshold issues of force and armed attack by examining the permitted responses against such attacks. The second part offers a comprehensive analysis of the applicability of international humanitarian law to computer network attacks. By examining the legal framework regulating these attacks, Heather Harrison Dinniss addresses the issues associated with this method of attack in terms of the current law and explores the underlying debates which are shaping the modern laws applicable in armed conflict.

An idea paper on leadership theory integration

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to pursue an idea on leadership theory integration which includes two integrative attempts. The first involves three different leadership models (the developm ...

Destrudo‐L: Development of a short scale designed to measure destructive leadership behaviours in a military context

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a short and easy to use yet psychometrically sound instrument designed to measure destructive leadership behaviours in a military context.Design/me ...

Efficient and Effective Learning for Safety from Incidents

Abstract: Learning from incidents is important for improving safety. Many companies spend a great deal of time and money on such learning procedures. The objectives of this paper are to present some early results from a project aimed at revealing weaknesses in the procedures for learning from incidents and to discuss improvements in these procedures, especially in chemical process industries. The empirical base comes from a project assessing organizational learning and the effectiveness of the different steps of the learning cycle for safety and studying relations between safety-specific transformational leadership, safety climate, trust, safety-related behavior and learning from incidents. The results point at common weaknesses in the organizational learning, both in the horizontal learning (geographical spread) and in vertical learning (double-loop learning). Furthermore, the effectiveness in the different steps of the learning cycle is low due to insufficient information in incident reports, very shallow analyses of reports, decisions that focus at solving the problem only at the place where the incident took place, late implementations and weak solutions. Strong correlations with learning from incidents were found for all safety climate variables as well as for safety-related behaviors and trust. The relationships were very strong for trust, safety knowledge, safety participation and safety compliance.

Section IX of the ICRC Interpretive Guidance on Direct Participation in Hostilities : The End of Ius in Bello Proportionality as We Know It?

Abstract: Section IX of the ICRC Interpretive Guidance on Direct Participation in Hostilities : The End of Ius in Bello Proportionality as We Know It?

Hybrid Threats, Cyber Warfare and NATO’s Comprehensive Approach for Countering 21st Century Threats – Mapping the New Frontier of Global Risk and Security Management

Abstract: The end of the so-called "Cold War" has seen a change in the nature of present threats and with it to the overall role and mission of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact in 1991 also removed the original raison d’etre of the Alliance: the prospect of having to repel a Soviet led attack by the Warsaw Pact on the West.Multimodal, low intensity, kinetic as well as non-kinetic threats to international peace and security including cyber war, low intensity asymmetric conflict scenarios, global terrorism, piracy, transnational organized crime, demographic challenges, resources security, retrenchment from globalization and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction were identified by NATO as so called "Hybrid Threats" (cf BI-SC Input for a New NATO Capstone Concept for The Military Contribution to Countering Hybrid Enclosure 1 to 1500/CPPCAM/FCR/10-270038 and 5000 FXX/0100/TT-0651/SER: NU0040, dated 25 August 2010). Having identified this kind of emerging threat, NATO is working on a comprehensive conceptual framework, (the Capstone Concept) which provides the framework for identifying and discussing such threats and possible multi-stakeholder responses. In essence, Hybrid Threats faced by NATO and its non-military partners require a comprehensive approach allowing a wide spectrum of responses, kinetic and non-kinetic by military and non-military actors (see "Updated List of Tasks for the Implementation of the Comprehensive Approach Action Plan and the Lisbon Summit Decisions on the Comprehensive Approach," dated 4 March 2011, p 1-10, paragraph 1).This short article introduces the reader to a new form of global threat scenario and the possibilities of response and deterrence within their wider legal and political context.

Security Sector Reform and Georgia: the European Union's challenge in the Southern Caucasus

Abstract: Security Sector Reform (SSR) holds different meanings and hence varying implications for recipients and donors. Therefore, as an initial point of departure it is necessary to offer a more precise understanding of what can the European Union (EU) offer as a donor to recipient nations in need of SSR? The empirical case of Georgia presents an interesting and challenging case for SSR. There have been a number of domestic and international conflicts in the post-Soviet era, which has left a volatile legacy. There needs to be a cautious and long-term approach that balances what Georgia needs and wants with what the EU can offer. Rather than a narrow approach to the SSR programme, a broader and more encompassing assistance needs to be undertaken in order to affect a more stable and sustainable change. This process shall require talking and offering, but also listening to what Georgian officials request and desire.

Best-effort Data Leakage Prevention in inter-organizational tactical MANETs

Abstract: Reconfigurable Radio Systems (RRS), based on Software Defined Radio (SDR) and Mobile Ad-hoc Network (MANET) technologies, offer considerable advantages for military operations, such as increased network survivability and interoperability. The RRS-based Common Tactical Radio System (GTRS), currently in development by the Swedish Armed Forces, is designed for use in diverse geographical settings and for purposes varying from international combat missions to national contingency operations. However, protecting these networks from attacks and safeguarding the carried information against leaks is an ongoing research challenge, especially in combined scenarios where tactical data may flow across organizational boundaries. This paper presents a best-effort approach to Data Leakage Prevention (DLP) for inter-organizational RRS-based networks. The proposed architecture makes use of data mining techniques and an efficient n-dimensional clustering algorithm which has previously been successfully used for real-time anomaly detection in critical infrastructure protection. The DLP architecture is developed as an extension to the GTRS system, modeled and simulated in OPNET™ Modeler. Our results show that common data leaks can be efficiently identified by the proposed scheme, while keeping the important false positive rate at a very low level.

A New Incident Report Form Leads to Improved Foundation for the Lessons Learned Cycle

Abstract: It is generally maintained that learning should be a part of the daily routines of many organizations; this is often referred to as lesson learned processes. The purpose of organizational learning is to foster improvements that seek to both reduce incidents and accidents and reduce their consequences when they nevertheless happen. Safety work is widespread among many organizations, e.g. aviation, hospitals, process industry, fire departments and several armed forces. A considerable part of safety work involves accident prevention, and aims to investigate why and how previous accidents and incidents happened, in order to learn how to avoid them, or minimize losses when they do occur. The collection of information after incidents represents one of the first steps in a lessons learned process, and the result is crucial for further work. Unfortunately, incident reports often tend to be unfocused (they represent a very wide area of issues) and, for that reason, cannot be clustered. They also frequently lack by analysts required information. The overall research objective in this thesis was to develop a report structure that enables the individuals who participated in or observed an incident to provide more information that is relevant about that incident. The first research question seeks to identify whether the Swedish Armed Forces face the kinds of problems that have been identified in earlier research on attempts to learn from accidents and incidents. The second and third research questions aim to ascertain whether the scope and quality of collected information in incident reports can be improved and if the number of incident reports can be increased. The results agree with earlier research and show that many of the problems that are common in other organizations (e.g. aviation, hospitals and the process industry) can also be observed and are a reality within the SwAF. In addition, the results showed that both scope and quality of collected information can be influenced. Group reporting using a consensus process neither had an appreciable effect on the quality of collected information, nor on the quantity of the reports. On the other hand, the new reporting form, which was based on interview and questionnaire methodology, and to some extent witness psychology, significantly improved the quality of the information collected after incidents. The new form proved to be superior, regardless of the character and context of the incidents. The information collected was also in accordance with what had actually happened and, finally, the form proved to be useful when various military “real world” incidents were reported. Finally, the results also provide new insights into the problems and possibilities associated with acquiring useful incident reports. The problem seems not only to be that people may be unwilling to report incidents that they have participated in or witnessed; it is also that they may be unable to do so. Consequently, it may not be sufficient to change the culture of the organization into a learning culture to receive by analysts required information. It is also necessary to help people report what they actually know by means of an improved report structure.

Using Weather Information to Improve Route Planning

Abstract: Weather has a significant influence on navigation processes. Driving during a heavy rain, for example, is slower and due to poor visibility more dangerous than driving in perfect weather conditions. Thus from time management and safety perspective including weather information is beneficial. Weather, especially rain may also be critical for transportation tasks since some commodities like straw or sand should not get wet. In the last years, the quality of weather information and weather forecast has improved and could be used to improve route planning.The paper discusses how weather information can be included in route planning algorithms. A first approximating algorithm to incorporate weather forecast data is presented. Some examples showing the impact on route planning conclude the paper.

Adopting a Recipe for Success: Modern Armed Forces and the Institutionalization of the Principles of War

Abstract: The prevailing explanation of the institutionalization of the principles of war is misleading. Although the introduction of the principles into Western doctrine coincided with total war and the need to train unprecedented numbers of soldiers and junior officers in tactics, the fact that the principles disappeared from doctrines immediately prior to and during the Second World War suggests that they were not institutionalized to meet an increased need to educate the military. Instead, we test two other explanations: one drawing on the principles’ military effectiveness and one drawing upon the principles’ explanatory power. We find that neither one of these hypotheses stand. Instead, we conclude by elaborating on how the institutionalization of the principles of war can be made understandable using non-rationalist frameworks, in particular the growth of a particular kind of identity of staff officers in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. According to this framework, the two world wars interru...

War/space: shifting spatialities and the absence of politics in contemporary accounts of war

Abstract: Understandings of war – its shape, form, character and content – are conditioned by conceptualisations and narratives of social and political space. As such, the history of writing on war is also a history of spatiality, expressed through a particular circumstance and practice. Through analysis of early modern conceptualisations of space, politics and war, this article considers the shift in political spatiality associated with the demise of modern linear spatiality that firmly established the territorial state as site of politics and war. The central argument of this article is that contemporary accounts of war reveal a political spatiality in flux coupled with an insistence on the global, such that many accounts of war neglect its political content. Three key accounts of contemporary war are engaged: liberal discourses of war as ‘policing’; accounts of war as ‘biopolitical empire’; and discourses of war as ‘risk management’ – all found, in different ways and collectively, to disregard the political conf...

National Perspectives in Multinational Headquarters: The Case of EUFOR Tchad/RCA

Abstract: Recent studies of the European Union crisis management capability argue for establishing a permanent Operations Headquarters (OHQ) instead of the temporary alternatives currently available. These studies picture temporary OHQs as slow starters hampered by multiple interests and a lack of common grounds. This paper corroborates these studies by reporting on the empirical findings of a year-long case study of the EUFOR Tchad/RCA OHQ. The combined results of observations, interviews, and surveys indicate that national perspectives not only existed in the OHQ, but were also asymmetric in the sense that staff members from France and Ireland nations displayed stronger national perspectives than staff members from other nations. However, the general trust between staff members seems to have been largely unaffected by this. The findings also indicate a process of familiarization spanning over several months. This paper argues that temporary multinational headquarters are likely to work around frictions and mature into well-functioning organization, but that this is a time-consuming process in which national parallel chains of command may remain. Prior training should prepare staff members for this. In addition, leading nations need to understand their strong visibility and to be careful not to dominate the day-to-day staff work.

Using the neo-classical realism paradigm to predict Russian foreign policy behaviour as a complement to using resources

Abstract: This essay presents the argument that analysts, crystal ball readers and general future-tellers generally should to a much higher extent rely on claimed interests of great powers than on resources ...

Global business and human rights: the UN “norms on the responsibility of transnational corporations and other business enterprises with regard to human rights” - a requiem

Abstract: On 11 June 2011, the United Nations Human Rights Council endorsed the ‘Guiding Principles for Business and Human Rights’ as a new set of guiding principles for global business designed to provide a global standard for preventing and addressing the risk of adverse impacts on human rights linked to business activity. This outcome was preceded by an earlier unsuccessful attempt by a Sub-Commission of the UN Commission on Human Rights to win approval for a set of binding corporate human rights norms, the so called “Norms on the Responsibilities of Transnational Corporations and Other Business Enterprises with Regard to Human Rights”. This article identifies and discusses the reasons why the Norms eventually failed to win approval by the then UN Commission on Human Rights. This discussion is important in order to understand the difficulties in establishing binding ‘hard law’ obligations for Transnational Corporations with regard to human rights within the wider framework of international law. It is crucial to understand possible motives as well as the underlying rationale which lead first to the adoption and then the rapid abandoning of the Norms: such a discussion will also shed light on the prospects and trends of concepts of indirect, vague voluntarism of business human rights compliance, as well as on prospects of finding alternative solutions, and finally the rationale and effect of the ‘Guiding Principles for Business and Human Rights’.

Technology: From Substance to Abstraction and What This Means for Our Understanding of it

Abstract: The question “What do we really mean by technology?†has initiated a rich discussion among researchers and students, as well as consultants and lecturers, on a website during and after the summer of 2011. Complementary or alternative perspectives on topics like knowledge were discussed. Some discussants pointed at the meaning of knowledge and what is required of this ‘matter’ to understand technology. This article discusses factors that contribute to the difficulties in understanding technology, explaining by providing examples the movement from the concrete to abstractions when people try to design, classify, and understand technology in their environments. What has been ongoing during the last century is a process of understanding and controlling a radically changed world where terms like globalization and modernity express some of its key aspects. This process illustrates Beniger’s (1986) claim that humans apply symbolic control systems which then control by their meaning. Each new technology increases the need for control and for improved control technology. The naming of artifacts/technologies is part of the control efforts. The use of metaphors is common and useful, but also adds to the abstraction.

Military Capacity and Civil Adjustment: Assessments of the ‘re‐usable’ peacekeeping soldier for development of a selection system

Abstract: This study investigated whether re-usable soldiers, that is, those who performed well during operations (military capacity), and were able to readjust postdeployment (civil adjustment), could be identified at predeployment. Participants were 364 UN peacekeeping soldiers. Three hypotheses were posed: the selection system for conscripts cannot identify soldiers with low military capacity (H: 1); the selection system for conscripts cannot identify soldiers with poor civil adjustment after deployment (H: 2); and the two aspects of re-usability (military capacity and civil adjustment) would be intertwined (H: 3). Results showed that the selection system for conscripts was unable to identify soldiers' military capacity and civil adjustment. Results also showed that these two aspects were unrelated, and did not interact. Indications on possible consequences and improvements are discussed.

Does Might Still Make Right? International Relations Theory and the Use of International Law Regarding the 2003 Iraq War

Abstract: Theories of International Relations take various positions regarding the role of international law in international politics. This article identifies four different perspectives on that role by making two distinctions: first, between approaches that assume that states act on the basis of a cost-benefit analysis and approaches that assume that states act upon shared ideas; second, between theories that assume that sovereign states are the only relevant players in international politics and theories that allow for the possibility that domestic and transnational players may affect international politics as well. Subsequently, the article investigates the choices made by France, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States prior to the 2003 war against Iraq. The four perspectives on the role of international law provide different interpretations of the weight these states attached to international law when considering the use of violence against Iraq.

The Military Balance in the Baltic Sea Region: Notes on a Defunct Concept

Abstract: It is something of a general assumption that in the diverse field that we call International Relations the terminology associated with power politics has been closely associated with the realist approach. This is an understanding that creates a need for further clarification. As pointed out by Barry Buzan and Ole Waever in 2007, the security theory field is differentiated as European scholars have tended to be interested in a reflexive approach to the security concept, while American scholarship has focused on empirically validated cause-effect relationships relevant to policy issues (Buzan and Waever 2007). Buzan and Waever describe the social backdrop for these differences and make a contrast between “critical theory” and “problem-solving theory”. Perhaps a premature conclusion would be that terms and concepts like military balance and power politics have disappeared from the discourse of both academia and politics in Europe. They sound like an anachronism from the Cold War that many are uncomfortable with.

How to Operationalize C2 Agility

Abstract: Alberts has offered a definition of agility and its constituent components. This paper describes where in the C2 system, or the force, the different agility requirements will have to be met, and ho ...

Changes over time in the importance patients ascribe to different aspects of care: on the need to improve person-centeredness

Abstract: Rational and aim: Knowledge of which aspects of care are more important to patients is crucial for health providers The aim of the work presented here was to explore changes over time in patients’ preferences in hospital and in out-patient settingsMethod: Cross-sectional data were collected among patients at a number of Swedish hospital wards and out-patient clinics in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2008 (N = 46,525) Data for men and women were analysed separately The main outcome measure consisted of replies to the questionnaire “Quality from the Patient’s Perspective” (QPP) (numerous references)Results: (1) Subjective importance (preference) ratings increased throughout the time period studied, (2) in-patients gave higher ratings than out-patients and (3) women gave higher ratings than men, particularly in out-patient settingsConclusion: The increase over time in ratings of the importance ascribed to different aspects of care may reflect a general trend towards strengthened consciousness among citizens as consumers of care and is an important index for improving the person-centeredness of clinical services

Bankrupting Terrorism: The Role of US Anti-Terrorism Litigation in the Prevention of Terrorism and Other Hybrid Threats: A Legal Assessment and Outlook

Abstract: Global terrorist networks are dependent on receiving financial support from a variety of sources, including individuals, charities and corporations. Also known as terrorist financing, the potential of terrorism finance to resemble a global threat has been recognised and also its closeness to other international crimes such as money laundering and organized crime. As a result, possible responses have to constitute co-ordinated, multi-lateral and multi-faceted actions under the umbrella of a wide range of international stakeholders such as the United Nations Security Council and the Financial Action Task Force. Combating terrorism requires a ‘holistic’ approach which allows for a mix of possible responses. Besides “kinetic” security operations (such as targeted killings) and the adoption of criminal prosecution measures another possible response could be the use of US styled transnational civil litigation by victims of terrorism against both, terrorist groups and their sponsors. Corporations, both profit and non profit, such as banks and other legal entities, as well as individuals, are often complicit in international terrorism in a role of aiders and abettors by providing financial assistance to the perpetrators (cf. UN Al-Qaida Sanctions List: The List established and maintained by the 1267 Committee with respect to individuals, groups, undertakings and other entities associated with Al-Qaida). Such collusion in acts of terrorism gains additional importance against the background of so called “Hybrid Threats”, NATO’s new concept of identifying and countering new threats arising from multi-level threat scenarios. This article discusses the potential impact of US terrorism lawsuits for the global fight against terrorism.