Tinbergen Institute

About: Tinbergen Institute is a education organization based out in Rotterdam, Netherlands. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Volatility (finance) & Competition (economics). The organization has 565 authors who have published 3157 publications receiving 82800 citations.

Agricultural change and inequality in Palanpur, 1957-84

Abstract: This chapter analyzes changes in the distribution of income and land in the north Indian village of Palanpur on the basis of four surveys conducted over a 27 year interval. Average per capita income from agricultural activities during 1957-58 and 1962/63 was roughly constant, grew by 74% between 1962-63 and 1974-75, and then declined by roughly half between 1974/75 and 1983/84. The increase in incomes between 1962/63 and 1974/75 was spread over the entire income distribution, with the largest rise among those around the median, so that inequality between these two years decreased. In the decade after 1974, there was a substantial increase in the leasing out of land by small landholders, which may in part reflect the cost of, or lack of access to, credit. The largest impact on income inequality in the decade after 1974/75 came from outside jobs, the source of one-third of total income in Palanpur by 1983/84. -Authors

Modelling and Forecasting Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru

Abstract: Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO's World Heritage List. For the potentially negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals.

Train Commuters' Scheduling Preferences: Evidence from a Large-Scale Peak Avoidance Experiment

Abstract: We study the trip scheduling preferences of train commuters in a real-life setting. The underlying data have been collected during large-scale peak avoidance experiment conducted in the Netherlands, in which participants could earn monetary rewards for traveling outside peak hours. The experiment included ca. 1000 participants and lasted for multiple months. Holders of an annual train pass were invited to join the experiment, and a customized smartphone app was used to measure the travel behavior of the participants. We find that compared to the pre-measurement, the relative share of peak trips decreased by 22% during the reward period, and by 10% during the post-measurement. By combining multiple complementary data sources, we are able to specify and estimate (MNL and panel latent class) departure time choice models. These yield plausible estimates for the monetary values that participants attach to reducing travel time, schedule delays, the number of transfers, crowdedness, and unreliability.

Inequity in the Face of Death

Abstract: This discussion paper led to a publication in 'Health Economics' , 2015, 24(10), 1348-1367. We apply the theory of inequality in opportunity to measure inequity in mortality. Our empirical work is based on a rich dataset for the Netherlands (1998-2007), linking information about mortality, health events and lifestyles. We show that distinguishing between different channels via which mortality is affected is necessary to test the sensitivity of the results with respect to different normative positions. Moreover, our model allows for a comparison of the inequity in simulated counterfactual situations, including an evaluation of policy measures. We explicitly make a distinction between inequity in mortality risks and inequity in mortalityoutcomes. The treatment of this difference - “luck”- has a crucial in‡uence on the results.

How Good a Map? Putting Small Area Estimation to the Test

Abstract: The authors examine the performance of small area welfare estimation. The method combines census and survey data to produce spatially disaggregated poverty and inequality estimates. To test the method, they compare predicted welfare indicators for a set of target populations with their true values. They construct target populations using actual data from a census of households in a set of rural Mexican communities. They examine estimates along three criteria: accuracy of confidence intervals, bias, and correlation with true values. The authors find that while point estimates are very stable, the precision of the estimates varies with alternative simulation methods. While the original approach of numerical gradient estimation yields standard errors that seem appropriate, some computationally less-intensive simulation procedures yield confidence intervals that are slightly too narrow. The precision of estimates is shown to diminish markedly if unobserved location effects at the village level are not well captured in underlying consumption models. With well specified models there is only slight evidence of bias, but the authors show that bias increases if underlying models fail to capture latent location effects. Correlations between estimated and true welfare at the local level are highest for mean expenditure and poverty measures and lower for inequality measures.