Showing papers in "Agricultural Finance Review in 2016"

Agricultural productivity, credit and farm size nexus in Africa: a case study of Ghana

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the connections of agricultural productivity, access to credit and farm size in Africa using Ghana as a case study. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs mixed methods – quantitative and qualitative strategies for data collection and analyses. The hierarchical competitive model was used for the quantitative analyses supplemented with qualitative analyses using key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household case studies. Findings – The results show that there is significant relationship between credit from formal and informal sources and agricultural productivity. Thus access to formal and informal credit increases farm household agricultural productivity by about 0.10 (p=0.05) and 0.45 (p < 0.01), respectively. The quadratic terms of formal and informal credit as well as farm size were found to significantly influence agricultural productivity. The implication of this is that the relationships between formal credit, informal cred...

Agricultural credit and technical efficiency in Ghana: is there a nexus?

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of agricultural credit on technical efficiency of Ghanaian maize farmers using a unique dataset drawn from the database of Sub-Saharan Africa’s intensification of food crops agriculture (Afrint II) in 2008 period. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, a two-stage estimation procedure is employed to determine impact of agricultural credit on technical efficiency of Ghanaian maize farmers. The first stage utilized probit model while the second stage utilized stochastic frontier approach to estimate impact of credit on technical efficiency of Ghanaian maize farmers. Findings – The study found that farmers are producing below the frontier with average technical efficiency of 47 percent. Policy variables such as credit access; education, extension access and farm size played a stronger role in technical efficiency. Agricultural credit in particular increased technical efficiency by 3.8 percent. Research limitations/implications – The results s...

Adoption and impact of index-insurance and credit for smallholder farmers in developing countries: A systematic review

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the most recent scientific literature on the determinants explaining the demand for index-insurance, the impact of index-insurance and the existing links between insurance and credit. In this meta-analysis, the authors identify key discoveries on the potential of index-insurance in enhancing credit supply for smallholders and thus farm productivity. Design/methodology/approach – Following a systematic literature search in Scopus and Web of Science, relevant empirical articles were identified by using the following criteria search algorithm: “insurance” and (“weather” or “micro” or “area?based” or “rain*” or “livestock” or “index”), and ((“empiric*” or “experiment” or “trial” or “RCT” or “impact”) or (“credit” or “loan*” or “debt” or “finance”)). The authors identified 1,133 related papers, 110 of which were selected as closely matching the study criteria. After removing duplicates and analysing each document, 45 papers were included in the current analysis....

Big data and Ag-Analytics

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief and necessarily partial overview of the design, motivation, and use of the Ag-Analytics platform (ag-analytics.org), focussing on integration and warehousing of publicly available research data for broad communities of researchers, including those in the area of agricultural finance. Design/methodology/approach – The paper walks the reader through an overview of the layout and utilization of the Ag-Analytics platform, including a few example applications of some of the tools and web API’s. Findings – Much of the data researchers routinely use in agricultural and environmental finance and related fields are often – strictly speaking – publicly available; however the form in which they are distributed leads to great inefficiencies in data sourcing and processing which can be greatly improved. The goal of the Ag-Analytics open data/open source platform is to help researchers centralize and share in such efforts. Development of systems for disseminatin...

Does credit market inefficiency affect technology adoption? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors affecting the adoption of agricultural technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa, specifically the role of credit market inefficiency in adoption of agricultural technologies in the region. Design/methodology/approach Most importantly, the paper applies a 2SLS model on a unique data set on nine agrarian countries from Sub-Saharan Africa’s intensification of food crops agriculture (Afrint) to provide evidence on how credit market inefficiency affects adoption of technologies in the sub region. Findings The study finds that the relationship between credit and technology adoption is one-way causal relation (i.e. credit access leads to technology adoption) as opposed to a two-way relation (i.e. mutual dependent relation). Further, the results indicate that credit market inefficiency can be a major barrier to the adoption of yield enhancing technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Further, the study showed mixed results for household variables. The results give credence to studies that highlight the importance of infrastructure and risk control in the adoption of new technologies. Research limitations/implications The study is limited to only nine countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, the findings and interpretations should be considered as such. Further, there is the need for further research that considers all the region so as to establish whether or not there is a relationship between credit market inefficiencies and technology adoption in the region. Practical implications The policy implication is that microfinance institutions should consider scaling up their credit services to ensure that more households benefit from it, and in so doing technology adoption will be enhanced. Originality/value The main contribution of the study lies in its use of a unique data set from Sub-Saharan Africa’s intensification of food crops agriculture (Afrint) to investigation relationship between credit market inefficiency and technology adoption.

Current trends in cooperative finance

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the recent financial trends affecting grain and farm supply cooperatives. Design/methodology/approach Review of and descriptive analysis of current cooperative finance topics. Findings In recent years three important trends have become apparent among grain marketing and farm supply cooperatives. These farmer-owned firms have been rapidly investing in infrastructure, reformulating profit distribution and equity strategies, and have pursued consolidation with other cooperatives. Originality/value Grain and farm supply cooperatives are changing at a rapid clip to meet the needs of their evolving and growing farmer-owners. New research is needed to help these cooperatives meet these needs, and this paper identifies new areas of research in cooperative finance.

Analyzing the agricultural value chain financing: approaches and tools in India

Abstract: Purpose – The global demand for food is expected to increase by 60 percent by 2050 when the world’s population reaches 9.1 billion. To meet this challenge significant investment in the agricultural sector is required to embrace innovative financing mechanisms that can benefit sustainable agricultural development, food security and nutrition. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the agricultural value chain (AVC) financing approaches and tools in India. It presents a proper understanding of the different case studies of Indian AVC financing models and related instruments. It also offers some useful recommendations to improve their efficiency. Design/methodology/approach – The authors employ the multiple case studies approach to research which allows for a purposive sample and the potential for generalizability of findings. This provides a more rigorous and inclusive approach than a single case study research due to the triangulation of evidence. Subsequently, the authors offer an explicit description of...

Price and volatility transmissions between natural gas, fertilizer, and corn markets

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price and volatility transmission between natural gas, fertilizer (ammonia), and corn markets, an issue that has been traditionally ignored in the literature despite its significant importance. Design/methodology/approach – The authors jointly estimate a vector error correction model for the conditional mean equation and a multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity model for the conditional volatility equation to investigate the interactions between natural gas, ammonia, and corn prices and their volatility. Findings – The authors find significant interplay between fertilizer and corn markets, while only a mild linkage in prices and volatility exist between those markets and natural gas during the period 1994-2014. There is not only a positive relationship between corn and ammonia prices in the short run, but both prices react to deviations from the long-run parity. Furthermore, the lagged conditional volatility of ammonia prices po...

Dairy farm financial performance: firm, year, and size effects

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate dairy farm financial performance over time utilizing farm financial ratios from three university business analysis programs. The evaluation includes measures of profitability, solvency, and liquidity by herd size. Design/methodology/approach Financial ratios to reflect profitability (rate of return on assets), solvency (debt to asset ratio), and liquidity (current ratio) were collected from Cornell University, Michigan State University, and the University of Wisconsin for dairy farms from 2000 to 2012. The distribution of farm financial performance using these ratios was examined over time and by herd size. Variance component methods are used to examine the percent of variation due to individual firm and industry aspects. A simple credit risk score is calculated to examine relative farm risk. Findings Dairy farm profitability performance is similar across herd sizes in poor years but larger herds realized significantly more profitability in good years. Findings were similar with respect to liquidity. Large herds consistently carried relatively more debt. Large herds’ financial performance was more uniform than across smaller herds. Larger herds had more financial risk as measured by credit risk scoring but recovered quickly to industry averages in profitable years. Originality/value The variation of dairy farm financial performance in an era of volatile milk and feed price is assessed. The results have important implications for farm financial management and benchmarking farm financial performance. In addition to helping to evaluate the efficacy of various price and income risk management tools, these results have important implications for understanding the benefits of the new federal Margin Protection Program for Dairy that is available to all US dairy farmers.

Determinants of loan demand in agriculture: empirical evidence from Germany

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the influencing factors of loan demand in agriculture. With the structural changes that agriculture is undergoing and the accordingly higher financing requirements and volumes, the analysis of loan demand in agriculture is of particular interest. Design/methodology/approach Detailed actual loan data at farm level, which is provided by a major German development bank for the agricultural sector, is used for the analysis. The data set covers the period from 2010 to 2014 and consists of 68,430 observations. Due to the data structure, an ordinary least square regression is conducted with the loan amount as the dependent variable. Many explanatory variables are included, such as the interest rate, the intended use of the loan, grace periods, the gross value added (GVA) and the business climate index for agriculture. Findings Amongst others, the authors find that interest rate, GVA, grace periods and farmers’ business expectations have significant effects on the loan demand in agriculture. According to the results, the interest rate has a significant negative effect, whereas the granted grace periods, the GVA in agriculture and farmers’ business expectations have significant positive effects on the loan demand. Originality/value This paper investigates the determinants of loan demand in agriculture in a developed country by using unique and comprehensive data at loan and farm level. Amongst others, elasticities of loan demand in agriculture are determined.

Are African female farmers disadvantaged on the microfinance lending market

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether social and/or cultural obstacles faced by African female farmers diminish their accessibility to lending opportunities provided by a commercial microfinance institution; and affect their repayment performance. Design/methodology/approach The underlying data set is comprised of information regarding 9,710 farmers from Madagascar and was provided by the AccesBanque Madagascar. Logit and Tobit models are applied to determine gender effects on loan accessibility and repayment performance, respectively. Findings Even though female farmers are associated with a lower repayment performance, they have a higher rate of loan application approval compared to male farmers. Research limitations/implications The results are limited to Madagascar and other African countries with similar socio-economic conditions. Social implications Commercial microfinance institutions still provide access to credit for disadvantaged groups, such as female farmers. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study investigating gender-specific credit access and repayment performance of rural African farmers using a data set from a commercial microfinance institution without a social mission for females.

Tax policy and farm capital investment: Section 179 expensing and bonus depreciation

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of Internal Revenue Code cost recovery provisions – Section 179 and “bonus depreciation” – on farm capital investment. Design/methodology/approach – The authors construct a synthetic panel of data consisting of cohorts of similar farms based on state and production specialization using the USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey for years 1996-2012. Employing panel data methods, the authors are able to control for time-invariant fixed effects, as well as the effects of past investment on current investment. Findings – The authors estimate statistically significant investment demand elasticities with respect to the Section 179 expensing deduction of between 0.28 and 0.50. A change in bonus depreciation, on average, had little impact on capital investment. Practical implications – The estimates suggest there is a modest effect of the cost recovery provisions on investment overall, but a stronger effect on farms that have more than $10,000 ...

Participation and output effect of a Block Farm Credit Programme in selected districts of Northern Ghana

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) Block Farm Credit Programme (BFCP) participation on crop output in four districts in the Northern region of Ghana. Design/methodology/approach Structured questionnaires were used to collect data from 240 beneficiary and non-beneficiary farmers of BFCP. The treatment effect model that accounts for selectivity bias was employed to examine the socioeconomic determinants of farmers’ decision to participate in the BFCP and the effect of BFCP participation on crop output. Findings Even though the BFCP participation increases output, inadequacy and late delivery of BFCP inputs, low publicity about the programme and difficulty in accessing the inputs from the districts agricultural officers are factors that prevent the full realization of the benefits of the programme. Improving extension services to create more awareness and a re-introduction of the BFCP to make inputs available and affordable to farmers can help boost farm productivity. Practical implications The positive effect of the BFCP means that the provision of low-cost production credit has the potential to increase productivity and improve incomes. Hence, MoFA should endeavour up scaling and properly managing the scheme. Originality/value This study is the first to evaluate the BFCP in Northern region of Ghana, particularly in relation to its contribution to crop value. The findings are very useful to advise policy by taking account of the programme deficiencies and enhance effectiveness.

Farm income variability and off-farm employment in Ireland

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the potential relationship between farm income variability and off-farm employment decisions in the short and medium term for the case of Irish farm operators. Design/methodology/approach Panel probit models of off-farm labour supply are estimated using Teagasc National Farm Survey data for Irish farms. The framework is based largely on standard expected utility but includes a constraint for recent employment history. Findings The analyses identifies some evidence of a positive association between farm income variability and off-farm employment in the medium term but no significant relationship in the short term. This suggests that off-farm employment is part of a wider portfolio decision but is not a strong solution to short-term farm income shocks. Practical implications European farmers increasingly face high income variability but financial risk management tools are not sufficiently developed or widely accessible to assist farmers in managing the associated risk. This deficiency can have negative implications for household economic welfare and future farm investments and hence the future farm income. Off-farm employment can form part of a wider medium-term portfolio strategy but more effective tools are also required for risk management particularly in dealing with short-term volatility and where off-farm employment is not a realistic endeavour given time constraints and/or demographics. Originality/value The estimation of farm income variability includes a detrending method thus reducing the likelihood of overestimating farm income variability for farms in deliberate expansion or decline. While previous research has typically focused on the short-term response of farmers to historical farm income variability, this research has distinguished between the short and medium term.

Diversifying systemic risk in agriculture.

Abstract: Purpose Portfolio risk in crop insurance due to the systemic nature of crop yield losses has inhibited the development of private crop insurance markets. Government subsidy or reinsurance has therefore been used to support crop insurance programs. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possibility of converting systemic crop yield risk into “poolable” risk. Specifically, this study examines whether it is possible to remove the co-movement as well as tail dependence of crop yield variables by enlarging the risk pool across different crops and countries. Design/methodology/approach Hierarchical Kendall copula (HKC) models are used to model potential non-linear correlations of the high-dimensional crop yield variables. A Bayesian estimation approach is applied to account for estimation risk in the copula parameters. A synthetic insurance portfolio is used to evaluate the systemic risk and diversification effect. Findings The results indicate that the systemic nature – both positive correlation and lower tail dependence – of crop yield risks can be eliminated by combining crop insurance policies across crops and countries. Originality/value The study applies the HKC in the context of agricultural risks. Compared to other advanced copulas, the HKC achieves both flexibility and parsimony. The flexibility of the HKC makes it appropriate to precisely represent various correlation structures of crop yield risks while the parsimony makes it computationally efficient in modeling high-dimensional correlation structure.

Financial engineering in pricing agricultural derivatives based on demand and volatility

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the author proposes a financial engineering framework to model commodity prices based on market demand processes and demand functions. This framework explains the relation between demand, volatility and the leverage effect of commodities. It is also shown how the proposed framework can be used to price derivatives on commodity prices. Second, the author estimates the model parameters for agricultural commodities and discuss the implications of the results on derivative prices. In particular, the author see how leverage effect (or inverse leverage effect) is related to market demand. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a power demand function along with the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross mean-reverting process to find the price process of commodities. Then by using the Ito theorem the constant elastic volatility (CEV) model is derived for the market prices. The partial differential equation that the dynamics of derivative prices satisfy is found and...

The US crop insurance program and WTO disciplines

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the US crop insurance programs in the context of domestic support disciplines under the World Trade Organization (WTO). Crop insurance has become an integral part of many domestic support programs, not just in developed countries, but in important emerging markets as well. An often-cited impetus for the growth in insurance program is the potential treatment of such programs as exempt from WTO reduction commitments. Design/methodology/approach – A detailed examination of the so-called “green box provisions” of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture is presented with particular emphasis on eligibility criteria for crop yield and revenue insurance programs. Findings – While WTO rules potentially shield green box policies from reduction, few developed countries have notified agricultural insurance policies under Annex 2. Moreover, crop insurance programs have been challenged in recent WTO dispute settlement cases and domestic countervailing duty investigat...

Land titles and formal credit in Thailand

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of land titles and farmers’ characteristics on their participation in the formal credit market in a land reform area of Thailand. Design/methodology/approach – Data collected on 218 farm households in one land reform area of Western Thailand are analyzed with a generalized double-hurdle model to calculate the probability of farm households to take a loan and the size of the loans from a formal credit institute, the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives. Findings – The results suggest that the absence of a title, whether fully or partially transferable, decreases significantly the participation to the formal credit market and the size of the loans. However, this effect was small. The findings also indicate that the farm assets, household head’s gender and age, and the labor force per hectare were significantly influencing the probability of participation to borrow money as well as the amount borrowed. Practical implications – T...

Incentive mechanisms, loan decisions and policy rationing: A framed field experiment on rural credit

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether negative incentives in the pay-for-performance mechanism would trigger loan officers to strategically reject potentially good loans. If so, what is the feasible solution to alleviate the problem. Design/methodology/approach A framed field experiment was conducted to test loan decision behaviors using loan officers from Rural Credit Cooperatives in Shandong, China. A 2 by 2 between-subject design was adopted to generate variation in incentives and prior information about credit risks. Findings Results showed that loan officers did ration credit by rejecting more loans when facing risks of personal income loss. However, providing risk information about the application pool boosted the approval rate and offset the behavioral responses by a roughly same magnitude. Research limitations/implications Findings in this study suggest that certain institutional settings can result in credit rationing via strategic loan misclassification. Further, information sometimes generates similar effects as those costly incentives or mechanisms that are not implementable in practice. Originality/value This study adopted an innovative monetized experimental design that allows researchers to examine the (otherwise unobservable) trade-offs between Type I and Type II error in loan misclassification as incentives change. In addition, an anchoring prior information treatment is used to solicit the relative power of almost costless information and costly monetary incentives, and to point out a potentially feasible solution.

Evaluating the marginal risk management benefits of the supplemental coverage option

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the risk management benefits provided by the supplemental coverage option (SCO) insurance plan which was created in the 2014 Farm Bill. Specifically, the marginal expected utility benefits are compared with the potential additional subsidy cost introduced by the new program for a stylized example of a corn producer. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a stylized simulation model examines the preferred insurance program choice for a typical Midwestern corn farmer. The expected utility of the farmer is calculated under their preferred insurance program choice both with and without the availability of the SCO program, and compared to the case where crop insurance is not available. Scenarios are examined for a range of farmer risk aversion levels, different levels of correlation between farm-level and county-level corn yields, and case with and without insurance premium subsidies. Findings The SCO program is found to enter into the preferred insurance program choice for risk averse farmers. As risk aversion increases, farmers are estimated to prefer higher coverage levels for individual products along with SCO coverage. While the availability of existing crop insurance programs are shown to substantially increase the expected utility of farmers, the marginal impact of adding SCO to the crop insurance program is relatively small. Furthermore, the additional expected benefits generated by SCO are shown to include both risk management and expected return components. With subsidies removed, the estimated marginal benefits provided by SCO are reduced significantly. Practical implications The findings of this paper can help inform the policy debate for future farm bills as agricultural support programs continue to evolve. The results in this paper can also be used to help explain farm-level decision making related to crop insurance program choices. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by documenting a new, federally supported risk management programs made available to farmers in the 2014 Farm Bill and evaluates the marginal benefits the SCO program offers US crop producers.

Non-performance of financial contracts in agricultural lending: A case study from Karnataka, India

Abstract: Purpose Evaluating a portfolio of agricultural loans has become an important issue in recent years primarily due to a large number of loan defaults. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing credit repayment behavior of farmers in Karnataka. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on secondary data of 590 farmers collected from a private bank in the state of Karnataka, India. Binary logistic regression and multinomial regression analysis was carried out to estimate the probability of non-payment of a loan. Findings The results of the regression confirm a significant relationship between non-repayment of agricultural credit and characteristics of borrowers such as the age, years of banking relationship, yield of the crop, distance to bank branch, size and tenure of the loan, farm size and leverage and efficiency ratio. Practical implications The factors predicted by the model do certainly help in improving the decision-making process in agricultural lending. A rigorous assessment of family responsibilities, farm size, credit-to-asset ratio, interest burden on the farmers and farm income is suggested to reduce the probability of doubtful assets. Originality/value The studies that predict default risk in agricultural loan are limited in India. This is one of the few studies that estimate the determinants of substandard and doubtful categories of credit in a private sector bank.

Hedging crop yield with exchange-traded weather derivatives

Abstract: Purpose – The application of weather derivatives in hedging crop yield risk is gaining more interest. However, the further development of weather derivatives – particularly exchange-traded – in the agricultural sector has been impeded by concerns over their hedging performance. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new framework to derive the optimal hedging strategy and evaluate hedging effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – This framework incorporates a stochastic temperature model, a crop yield model, a risk-neutral pricing method and a profit optimization procedure. Based on a large number of simulated scenarios, the authors study crop yield hedge for a future year. The authors allow the hedger to choose from different types of exchange-traded weather derivatives, and examine the impact of various factors on the optimal hedging strategy. Findings – The analysis shows that hedging objective, pricing method and geographical location of the hedged exposure all play important roles in choosing t...

The impact of the Food Safety and Modernization Act on firm value

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the passage and signing of P.L. 111-353, the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA), on the market value of agribusiness firms. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conduct an event study of the shareholder value effects of FSMA. The short-window analyses estimate the three-, five-, and seven-day market responses to three key event dates: passage by the House, passage by the Senate, and the signing of FSMA by President Obama. The long-window analyses examine a time period that encompasses the three informational events, as well as the 30 months after the signing of FSMA. To control for the effects of market-wide fluctuations, the authors use two alternative models of the returns generating process to calculate abnormal returns, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama-French three-factor model. Findings – The short-window analyses show no evidence of a significant reaction to the passage of FSMA by the House or the Senate, but...

Building insurance through an NGO: Approaches and experiences from a rice insurance pilot in Haiti

Abstract: Purpose – This paper is based on a crop insurance implementation currently undergoing in Haiti. The purpose of this paper is to present the development of a program tailored to rice production in the Artibonite Valley, the challenges and opportunities that are arising from the exercise as well as pitfalls and ways to avoid them. Design/methodology/approach – The Systeme de Financement et d’Assurances Agricoles en Haiti’s approach for the development of crop insurance is in accordance with 13 concepts considered essential in the implementation of agricultural insurance programs. The case study is presented through each of these 13 fundamental concepts. Findings – The paper provides an insight on challenges any organization will face when implementing crop insurance for smallholder farmers. It points out notably that close collaboration of executing agencies with local partners is essential from data collection through insurance development and delivery and that all participants should receive a specific tr...

FSA farm loan repayment under economic recession and drought conditions: Evidence from US Southeastern and Midwestern farms

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the repayment records of Farm Service Agency (FSA) borrowers in two distinct US farming regions that have been experienced serious drought conditions even as the US economy was going through a recession. The analysis will identify factors that significantly influence both the probability of FSA borrowers’ survival (capability to remain in good credit standing) and temporal endurance (or length of period of good standing with creditor). Design/methodology/approach This analysis utilizes a data set of farm borrowers of the Farm Service Agency that regular farm lenders have classified as “marginal” relative to other borrowers. The research goal is addressed by confining this study’s regional focus to the Southeast and Midwest that have both dealt with financial stress arising from abnormal natural and economic conditions prevailing during the same time period. A split population duration model is employed to separately identify determinants of the probability and duration of survival (condition of good credit standing). Findings This study’s results indicate that larger loan balances, declining commodity prices, and the severity of drought conditions have adversely affected both the borrowing farms’ probability of survival and temporal endurance in terms of maintaining non-delinquent borrower standing. Notably, Midwestern farms have been relatively less affected by drought conditions compared to Southeastern farms. This study’s results validate the contention that the farms’ capability to survive and the duration of their survival can be attributed to differences in regional resource endowments, farming activities, and business structures. Originality/value This study’s analytical framework departs from the basic duration model approach by considering temporal endurance, in addition to survival probability analysis. This study’s original contributions are enhanced by its specific focus on the contrasting farm business structures and operating environments in the Midwest and Southeast regions.

Time scale and fractionality in financial time series

Abstract: Purpose – Turvey (2007, Physica A) introduced a scaled variance ratio procedure for testing the random walk hypothesis (RWH) for financial time series by estimating Hurst coefficients for a fractional Brownian motion model of asset prices. The purpose of this paper is to extend his work by making the estimation procedure robust to heteroskedasticity and by addressing the multiple hypothesis testing problem. Design/methodology/approach – Unbiased, heteroskedasticity consistent, variance ratio estimates are calculated for end of day price data for eight time lags over 12 agricultural commodity futures (front month) and 40 US equities from 2000-2014. A bootstrapped stepdown procedure is used to obtain appropriate statistical confidence for the multiplicity of hypothesis tests. The variance ratio approach is compared against regression-based testing for fractionality. Findings – Failing to account for bias, heteroskedasticity, and multiplicity of testing can lead to large numbers of erroneous rejections of th...

Quantitative finance for agricultural commodities: discussion and extension

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review three papers in this issue and contribute new results on commodity futures prices and volume using wavelet analysis. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses time series econometrics including variance ratio tests, fractional integration estimators, and wavelet transforms. Findings – The role of time horizon is emphasized in the discussion of the three papers, and wavelet methods are shown to be a useful tool to better understand time horizon-specific risk. Moreover, changes in the time horizon of futures trading are documented and discussed. Originality/value – In addition to discussing three papers on quantitative finance for agricultural commodities, this paper also looks at how the analysis and management of short-term and long-term risk may differ. To this end, wavelet transform-based time series methods are reviewed and applied.

Evaluating Alberta cattle feeders’ loan guarantee program

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate Alberta’s cattle loan guarantee program. It measures the risk premiums on lending that would accrue to banks participating in the program, estimates the value (price) of the loan guarantee, and estimates the interest subsidy provided by the program. Design/methodology/approach – A cash flow model of cattle feeding is used. The model estimates a measure of risk that is applied to option pricing models to estimate the value of the guarantee. Findings – Insurance premiums for the credit risk to lenders are 0.20 percent of the value of the loan for the entire feeding period, and 0.41 percent for backgrounding but negligible for finishing. The price of the loan guarantee estimated by the Black-Scholes model is 4.43 percent of the value of the loan and is comparable to prices estimated by the binomial model. The program provides a subsidy rate of 4.58 percent. Research limitations/implications – Charging a guarantee fee can potentially eliminate the interest su...

The risk and return of farm real estate and the “bad data problem”

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the consequences of appraisal smoothing in the estimation of the risks and returns of farm real estate. It examines the degree to which the risk and return characteristics of farm real estate are an artifact of the methods used to measure aggregate property values. Design/methodology/approach – A multifactor asset pricing model is estimated using farm real estate returns in a manner consistent with prior research, as well as using farm real estate returns calculated using two synthetic unsmoothing procedures developed in the real estate finance literature. Findings – The model suggests that unsmoothed farm real estate returns exhibit characteristics that differ from those suggested by prior research. The unsmoothed returns suggest a stronger correlation with economy wide investment risks. Originality/value – This is the first study to evaluate the impacts of appraisal smoothing in a farm real estate context. It provides a simple framework for addressing ma...

An autoregressive approach to modeling commodity prices as a quasi-fractional Brownian motion

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to argue that a stationary-differenced autoregressive (AR) process with lag greater than 1, AR(q > 1), has certain properties that are consistent with a fractional Brownian motion (fBm). What the authors are interested in is the investigation of approaches to identifying the existence of persistent memory of one form or another for the purposes of simulating commodity (and other asset) prices. The authors show in theory, and with application to agricultural commodity prices the relationship between AR(q) and quasi-fBm. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper the authors develop mathematical relationships in support of using AR(q > 1) processes for simulating quasi-fBm. Findings – From theory the authors show that any AR(q) process is a stationary, self-similar process, with a lag structure that captures the essential elements of scaling and a fractional power law. The authors illustrate through various means the approach, and apply the quasi-fractional AR(q) proc...