Showing papers in "Electoral Studies in 2002"

TL;DR: In this paper, a new index that combines long-term factors with medium-term and shortterm factors was proposed to examine the strength of economic voting not only across a range of countries but over time within single countries.

TL;DR: This paper examined the effect of voter confusion on split voting in New Zealand's mixed electoral system and found that strategic defections are more likely to occur when the preferred candidate is not viable.

TL;DR: The rolling cross-section is a well-adapted design for telephone surveys and has been shown to capture real-time effects in campaigns as discussed by the authors, but the day on which a respondent is interviewed is chosen randomly.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors formalize the two types of Duvergerian effects of electoral laws in a structural model and implement this model using two-stage-least-squares regression to re-estimate the mechanical effect model of Amorim Neto and Cox.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors extend the theory to the nationwide level and show that the degree of institutional constraints is reflected indirectly by the number of seat-winning parties and more directly by the threshold of representation, defined as the vote level at which parties have a 50-50 chance to win their first seat.

TL;DR: This paper explored the electoral role of populist politics in Australia and New Zealand and found that the populist parties played two fundamentally distinct roles, tapping virtually exclusive support for extremist issue-stances such as opposition to immigration and aid for indigenous minorities.

TL;DR: The authors suggest that the three strands in the electoral politics literature raise several important issues for parties' election campaigns and develop a theoretical framework which may be used to examine parties' targeting strategies.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on the core business of election studies and allow other concerns (generally associated with measuring independent variables) to be hived off to special-purpose surveys specific to particular sub-fields of electoral studies.

TL;DR: In this article, a theoretical argument about the consequences of the new type of electoral rules as compared to the two older “pure” systems is developed, and the results suggest that the East European mixed systems have contributed to the election of fewer bigger winners which could stimulate the evolution of moderately fragmented party systems.

TL;DR: The authors analyzes the power of national election studies to detect the effects of exposure to political communication on vote choice in US presidential elections and concludes that most surveys and many other political science data sets have less power than most scholars appear to think.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore how best to design a national election study if the aim is to understand voting behavior within and across subnational contexts, and how, by comparison, the existing NES surveys have been designed.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that prior research has misconceptualized "rallies", which refer to stable increases in approval of the president's performance, not just a short-lived spike.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that split-ticket voting will be influenced by the amount of information received by electors regarding the candidates for the constituency seats, and they find strong supporting evidence for this responsive voter model in each of the three countries.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a method to test whether observed contextual effects are real or phantom, by measuring the integration of individuals in their neighborhoods, measured by response latency on questions about the neighborhood.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors employ a "whole system" approach that emphasizes the intricate but often hidden relationships between elections and the rules governing them at multiple levels, including presidential, legislative and local.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the effect of preferential voting on electoral rules and the extent to which the context of electoral rules can encourage or discourage a trade in partisan preferences in the Australian House of Representatives and Senate.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a change to the way we analyze data from national election studies, in order to address some key questions about the impact of context on voting behavior.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyze the relationship between the share of "yes" votes received by any popular initiative and the share received by politicians who politically supported it, and observe a strikingly high positive correlation of 0.09.

TL;DR: In this paper, the role of national election studies in voting behavior research in Europe and the United States is discussed and the treatment of time in both theoretical and practical terms is given special attention.

TL;DR: For example, this article found that less-informed voters voted for the Democratic Party (DP) solely on the basis of partisan attachment, while the vote of the better-informed voter was broadly based, with evaluative factors overtaking partisanship in importance.

TL;DR: This paper argued that the meaning of the word "unemployment" is not well understood by voters and that although an association between unemployment and the vote may indicate that voters are rational, it cannot indicate that they are necessarily economically rational.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors demonstrate how data can be transformed to take account of the Theil variance-covariance structure so that seemingly unrelated regression can be used to estimate vote-share equations on either an intra- or inter-election basis.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduce an extension of King and Browning's model that represents a party's expected seat gain under both a mixed and a hybrid electoral system, and that captures the distortions produced by a ceiling on the maximum number of representatives that a party can elect to congress.

TL;DR: The authors discusses the contribution of the American National Election Studies (ANES) data to the understanding of macro-level election analysis, and presents two brief examples where ANES data are used to explain macrolevel variation in election outcomes.

TL;DR: In this paper, an account is given of the methods used to predict the results of the 1998 Indian parliamentary election by a team from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi.