Showing papers in "Energy Sources Part B-economics Planning and Policy in 2011"

On Biomass Energy Consumption and Real Output in the US

Abstract: This empirical note utilizes US annual data from 1949 to 2007 to examine the causal relationship between biomass energy consumption and real gross domestic product (GDP) within a multivariate framework. Toda-Yamamoto causality tests reveal unidirectional causality from biomass energy consumption to real GDP supportive of the growth hypothesis.

US Disaggregate Fossil Fuel Consumption and Real GDP: An Empirical Note

Abstract: This empirical note provides a disaggregated analysis of the causal relationship between fossil fuel consumption and real gross domestic product (GDP) in the US using annual data from 1949 to 2006. The Toda-Yamamoto long-run causality tests reveal the absence of Granger-causality between coal consumption and real GDP; positive unidirectional causality from real GDP to natural gas consumption; and positive unidirectional causality from petroleum consumption to real GDP.

Risks on the Security of Oil and Gas Supply

Abstract: European energy demand and import dependence continues to increase and primary energy sources are mainly used to cover European energy needs, making clear that the risks of energy security of supply and their minimization is a critical issue. The aim of this article is to address the energy supply status, considering the energy supply corridors to the European Union, in order to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk minimization. The aim of this article is to present an overview of possible risks to smooth energy supply. The emphasis is given on oil and natural gas's categorization of most important risks, as well as the presentation and analysis of collection of incidents that justify the categorization itself.

Total Energy Demand Estimation in Iran Using Bees Algorithm

Abstract: Many studies are performed by researchers to estimate energy demand but the bees algorithm (BA) technique has never been used for such a study. This paper presents application of the BA technique to estimate total energy demand in Iran, based on socioeconomic indicators. The BA demand estimation models (BA-DEM) are first developed in two forms (exponential and linear) in order to estimate energy demand based on population, gross domestic product, import and export data. Then, two scenarios are designed for forecasting each socioeconomic indicator in the years 2006–2030. Finally, these two scenarios are used to forecast energy demand up to year 2030 using demand estimation models. Energy consumption in Iran from 1981–2005 is considered as the case of this study. The available data is partly used for finding the optimal, or near optimal, values of the weighting parameters (1981–1999) and partly for testing the models (2000–2005). In order to show the accuracy of the BA, obtained results of BA-DEM m...

The Causal Relationship Between Nuclear Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in India

Abstract: This article attempts to investigate the long-run and short-run causality issues between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in India by using the co-integration and error-correction models. It employs the annual data covering the period 1969–2006. The results indicate that there is a uni-directional causality running from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth without any feedback effect. Thus, considering the fact that nuclear energy consumption fosters economic growth, policies for increasing nuclear energy supply investment is, therefore, likely to enhance economic growth in India.

Application of a Fast Evolutionary Algorithm to Short-term Hydro-thermal Generation Scheduling

Abstract: This article presents a solution to the hydrothermal scheduling (HS) problem by evolutionary programming (EP). The purpose of HS is to minimize fuel costs of thermal units by allocating hydro and thermal units optimally, satisfying constraints on system operation. EP performs better than conventional methods in converging to near optimum results in the solution of the HS problem, which consists of nonlinear objective function and constraints. In EP, offsprings are generated from randomly generated initial parent vectors by Gauss or Cauchy mutations. Parent vectors and their offspring vectors compete with each other. Better individuals are selected as new parent vectors for the next iteration. As the iteration makes progress, convergence to optimum solution increases. In this study, instead of stochastic competition in existing EP algorithms, deterministic competition is utilized. The control parameter “scaling factor” is taken as variable instead of constant. Thus, better results have been obtain...

The Effect of Fuel Price on the Economic Analysis of Hybrid (Photovoltaic/Diesel/Battery) Systems in Iran

Abstract: Diesel power technology has been utilized worldwide, especially in remote regions, because of its low initial capital cost. But it has negative effects on the surrounding environment and causes global warming. On the other hand, depleting oil and fuel resources has made it inevitable to seek alternative/renewable energy resources. In Iran, the cost of fuel is highly subsidized. If Iran removes the fuel subsidy, the cost of diesel fuel would increase and the photovoltaic (PV) or hybrid PV/diesel systems would become more attractive. Hybrid photovoltaic/diesel/battery (PV/diesel/bat) systems which use PV energy, combined with diesel generation power and battery bank storage are an excellent solution to decrease diesel generator costs, pollution, and electrification of remote rural areas. In this article, a study using PV/diesel/bat power systems to meet typical load requirements in a remote region in Kerman, Iran is investigated under four different diesel generator fuel price scenarios. A simple o...

Turkey's Electricity Consumption Forecasting Using Genetic Programming

Abstract: Turkey's energy demand has been increasing rapidly as a result of rapid urbanization and industrialization. The energy investment requirement will be US$130 billion by the year 2020. Electricity energy has a vital importance among the energy sector. In this study the current state of the electricity energy production and consumption of Turkey is investigated and the electricity energy consumption is forecasted by using genetic algorithm. The obtained results are compared with conventional regression analyses techniques, and the estimated values of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. The electricity demand in the year 2020 is estimated to be 315.02 billion kWh compared to the 189.52 billion kWh needed in the year 2007.

Comparative Analysis of EU Member Countries Vulnerability in Oil and Gas

Abstract: The aim of this article is the comparative analysis of oil and gas supply for the 27 European Union member countries throughout the measurement of the vulnerability that their economies exhibit to oil and natural gas In this framework, 6 indicators that quantify the core concepts that affect the security of supply of a country have been integrated, with the usage of Principal Component Analysis, in two synthetic indices, which measure the vulnerability of the case study countries

Energy Consumption Forecasting of Iran Using Recurrent Neural Networks

Abstract: In this paper, a recurrent neural network model is developed in order to forecast the energy consumption as a complex nonlinear function of gross domestic product (GDP) and population in Iran. This intelligent model is trained by total energy consumption data as output and the population and GDP as inputs during 1976–2001, while 5 annual data points of the following years (2002–2006) are used to validate the model. It can describe time dependencies efficiently and the convergence rate is much faster. This model forecasts the trend of energy consumption annually. Simulation results show that this model can predict energy consumption in Iran with acceptable accuracy. It is expected that this study will be helpful in developing highly applicable energy policies.

A Collection of Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in Algeria

Abstract: Three analytical-based models are developed to estimate the monthly global solar radiation in the Algerian territory. The models are based on measured global solar radiation in the horizontal surface as well as sunshine hours in 4 different sites during a period of 6 years. The results show a remarkable agreement between the measured and computed values using the different models.

An Interval-Parameter Chance-Constraint Mixed-Integer Programming for Energy Systems Planning Under Uncertainty

Abstract: Energy management systems are fraught with uncertainties. Such uncertainties may be expressed by interval numbers or probability distributions. In addition, issues of capacity expansion related to timing, sizing, and siting under such uncertainties need to be addressed. In this article, an interval-parameter chance-constraint mixed-integer programming (ICCP) is developed to tackle highly uncertain problems in energy management systems through integrating interval-parameter linear programming and chance-constraint programming. The developed model is then applied to a regional energy system. The results indicate that ICCP can effectively deal with uncertain information in energy management systems.

The Forecasting of Net Electricity Consumption of the Consumer Groups in Turkey

Abstract: The main goal of this study is to reveal the future projections of net electricity consumption (NEC) as the consumer groups in Turkey by using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. In this study the equations based on energy and economic indicators were obtained to predict the net electricity consumption as the consumer groups with high confidence to plan correct investments in Turkey. In this study, three different models were used in order to train the ANN. In Model 1, energy indicators such as installed capacity, generation, energy import and energy export were used as the input layer of the network. In Model 2, the sectoral share of Gross National Product (GNP) per capita was used. In Model 3, the sectoral share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was used. The NEC of 25 different consumer groups are in the output layer for all models. The aim of using different models is to demonstrate the effect of sectoral share of economic indicators (GNP and GDP) on the estimation of NEC....

An Economic Analysis of Grid-connected Hybrid Energy Systems

Abstract: In this article, a pilot area was selected and the renewable energy potential for this region has been evaluated by making an energy cost analysis The study evaluates the feasibility of utilizing solar and wind energy with hydrogen as a backup power unit to meet the electricity requirements of the pilot region in conjunction with conventional grid-based electricity In order to simulate the operation of the system and to calculate the technical/economical parameters, micropower optimization program HOMER was used HOMER requires some input values for the area and ranges the feasible system configurations according to the net present cost (system cost) using these inputs The pilot region where the renewable based energy will be used is determined to be The Electrics and Electronics faculty, Istanbul Technical University

Ethanol From Corn Stover Using SSF: An Economic Assessment

Abstract: Increasingly rising oil prices and serious environmental problems make biofuel ethanol production from biomass urgent; fuel ethanol plants are being commissioned and constructed at an unprecedented rate. In this article, economic analyses of ethanol production from corn stover were preformed, and the annual production rate was 1.42 million kg, the results from the study indicated that the unit cost for ethanol production was 15.21 US$/kg, which showed this process had a long way before approaching economic feasibility. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to study the effect of enzyme recycling on the production cost. When the recovery ratio of enzyme was increased from 50% to 90%, the unit cost of ethanol production decreased from 9.45 US$/kg to 4.96 US$/kg. In addition, when the pentose could also be utilized to produce ethanol, the cost of ethanol would drop to 3.36 US$/kg, which was close to economically feasible.

Oil Price and Dutch Disease: The Case of Algeria

Abstract: This study examines the effect of recent increases of oil price on the key macroeconomic variables of Algeria. We have used the vectoriels auto-regressifs model with linear and non-linear specifications to analyze the data over the period 1995Q1–2007Q3. The findings indicate that the increase in the inflation rate due to oil price shock is the main cause of the real exchange rate's appreciation in the short term. This real appreciation involves a spending effect which could be at the origin of the Dutch Disease.

Energy, Electricity and Socioeconomic Transformation of Rural Regions in Developing Countries

Abstract: Currently, some 2.4 billion people in developing countries lack modern fuels for cooking and heating and about 1.6 billion people do not have access to electricity. In some developing countries in South Asia, only 30% of the rural population has access to electricity compared with 68% of the urban population. Energy services fail to meet the needs of the rural poor in most of the developing countries in the Asian region. The millennium development goals (MDG) are a set of time-bound, measurable goals for combating poverty, hunger, disease, illiteracy, environmental degradation, and gender inequality. All these goals require or relate to energy services. The MDG may not be met unless rapid progress is made in extending efficient and affordable energy services to the poor in support of productive economic activities or social development. On the other hand, rural energy has always been a critical issue due to years of energy shortage for both households and industries. Biomass, for a long time, has...

The Paradigm of Sustainability In Turkey's Energy Sector

Abstract: The concept of sustainability can be a way to understand the dynamics of reality and to consider not only the economic growth but also the social, environmental and cultural aspects of development This new paradigm questions the role of nature as an instrument only to satisfy human needs and brings into consideration the rational use of natural resources through responsible environmental policies keeping in mind the needs of future generations Economic growth, considered as the notion of progress, brings intrinsically not only the extensive nature of exploitation but also the intensification of energy use Energy sources become, then, a strategic variable for economic development The energy policy of Turkey is an appropriate case study for the paradigm of sustainability overview as it is characterized by isolated initiatives and programs, which culminated into a huge crisis This article aims to discuss the concepts of sustainability and ethics through the analysis of the Turkish energy policy

Sustainable Energy Policies in Turkey

Abstract: Turkey's demand for energy and electricity is increasing rapidly. Since 1990, energy consumption has increased at an annual average rate of 4.3%. As would be expected, the rapid expansion of energy production and consumption has brought with it a wide range of environmental issues at the local, regional and global levels. With respect to global environmental issues, Turkey's carbon dioxide emissions have grown along with its energy consumption. Emissions in 2004 reached 193 million tons. On the other hand, Turkey is an energy importing country; more than half of the energy requirement has been supplied by imports. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be the one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development in Turkey. This article gives a review of the present energy situation and role of renewable energy for future directions in the Turkish energy sector.

Techno-economic aspects of biodiesel production and characterization.

Abstract: Rising world prices, the growing demand for energy, and the need to mitigate the greenhouse effect are the driving force behind the renewed interest in the use of biofuels. Among the biofuels, biodiesel is one of the best available resources for diesel fuels in diesel engines. Chemically biodiesel is mono alkyl esters of long chain fatty acids derived from renewable feed stock. This article provides in depth and systematic data (reviews from 1944–2010) on technical aspects of biodiesel which will be useful for research and commercial utilization of such promising fuel in a global scenario. This article focused on identification of biodiesel sources, production processes including, pyrolysis, dilution, microemulsion, the transesterification process, biodiesel fuel properties; technical aspects including engine emissions, combustion characteristics and engine performance, and the economic feasibility of biodiesel. This study concludes that biodiesel fuel is needed at this time and an option for the...

Approaches to Communications and Cultural Issues to Aid Planning and Execution of Oil and Gas Sector Mega Projects

Abstract: Multi-cultural teams pose special challenges to the project management of large-scale oil and gas technical projects. Many of these challenges are associated with communication—both delivery and perception of messages being communicated in different cultures. There are several barriers and filters that inhibit messages being delivered or received by individuals and teams. There are also subtle differences in how these barriers work in different cultural settings. Cultural differences can exacerbate misunderstandings making it essential for team leaders to be aware of the full spectrum of cultural protocols impacting a project team. To do so takes time, resource and commitment from the initial stages of a project. This article explores issues surrounding communication in large multi-cultural project teams. It concludes that the team building phase is important in establishing effective communications and that team development takes more time with a multi-cultural team. However, if team building is...

DESPU: Dynamic Optimization for Energy Systems Planning Under Uncertainty

Abstract: The planning of energy systems is associated with various uncertainties Such uncertainties may only be expressed by interval numbers or fuzzy sets rather than probability distributions In addition, issues of capacity expansion related to timing, sizing and siting under such uncertainties needs to be addressed Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop a dynamic optimization model for energy systems planning under uncertainty (DESPU) through integrating interval-parameter, fuzzy and mixed integer programming techniques within an energy systems management framework The developed methodology is then applied to a hypothetical regional energy system The results indicate that DESPU has advantages in reflecting complexities of various uncertainties as well as dealing with problems of capacity expansion within energy systems

Production Royalty Sliding Scales

Abstract: Oil companies are faced with investment decisions for projects that have to live on both the upside and downside of oil prices. Fiscal regimes are key factors in determining the success of investment decisions in an international oil and gas setting. The two common fiscal regimes are: concessionary and production sharing agreement (PSA). It is known that a sliding scale is used to capture uncertainties in reserves and production in order to exploit potential increases in both reserves and production. A production royalty sliding scale is a common part of most fiscal regimes. Three different methods for calculating a production royalty sliding scale are weighted, non-weighted and linear equations. Each method is evaluated under a PSA for an oil field. Results show that all three methods have an incentive to increase production. However, the increase in the undiscounted cash flow with weighted average is highest for the contractor, followed by the linear equation and then the non-weighted method. G...

The Modeling of World Oil Production Using Sigmoidal Functions—Update 2010

Abstract: The depletion of the world oil resource based upon the logistic function has been updated and fitted to the recent history of oil production. The analysis uses data through the year 2009 and further introduces the asymmetric Gompertz function in order to account for additional oil resources. Results of these calculations depict a range of production rates under different resource limits. The characteristic curvature coefficients and the peak years of production are fitted to United States Geological Survey estimates of ultimately recoverable resource (URR) limits between 2.5 and 4.5 terabarrels (TB). The logistic fittings yield peak productions from 30.4 to 38.6 gigabarrels per year (GB/yr) for URRs from 2.5 to 3.0 TB in years 2008 through 2016. The lower probability of occurrence URRs (from 4.0 to 4.5 TB) inclusive of forms of oils yet to be introduced yield peak productions from 30.9 to 33.5 GB/yr during the years 2018 through 2023. The Gompertz function is used as the model for the lower proba...

An Overview of Clean Coal Technologies II: Mitigating the Environmental Impacts by Continuous Improvement in Coal Combustion and CCS Technology

Abstract: This article is the second of two articles aboutcurrent and prospective clean coal technologies. The first article discussed the source and formation mechanism of the major pollutants in coal-fired power generation together with pre-combustion and post-combustion pollutant control strategies. This article provides an overview of the existing and developing coal-fired electricity production options. The influence of the efficiency improvements on the CO2 mitigation and different applications of CO2 capture and storage technologies are also examined from both current and future perspectives.

Economic Growth, Electricity Consumption and Foreign Dependence in Italy Between 1963–2007

Abstract: The energy sector is assuming an increasing importance in the global economy. As a consequence, there is a vast literature on the causal relation between energy use and others economic variables. In this article, the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for Italy using yearly data covering the period 1963–2007 is investigated. Unlike previous works, this article specifically concerns the causal link between the dynamics of gross domestic product and the use of electricity from different sources of production. Regarding dependence from foreign suppliers, the article tests the hypothesis of a causal relationship between economic growth and electricity imports. The results show a unidirectional causality from economic activity to other variables.

Sustainable Developments of Wind Power in Europe. Part 2: Strategies and Activities

Abstract: Wind energy is the fastest growing renewable energy source in Europe. Europe accounted for 69% of the total installed capacity and 70% of the annual market growth during 2005. The wind energy sector would have preferred a strengthening of existing, successful, legislation, and is concerned that a new legislative package could take years to adopt at a crucial time in the development of large scale wind power. The main objective of this study is to summarize the strategies and activities of the EU countries toward sustainable development goals. In addition, this paper describes the environmental and economic impacts of wind power technology in the EU.

Total Electricity and Hydroelectric Energy Generation in Turkey: Projection and Comparison

Abstract: The main goal of this study is to forecast total electricity and hydroelectricity energy generation using historical electricity energy production data in order to determine the future level of electricity and hydroelectricity energy generation in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkey's electricity energy sector was reviewed during the period of 1940–2005. The total electricity and hydroelectricity energy generation were then modelled using historical energy generation data as years with regression analysis. Additionally, the portion that hydroelectric energy generation of Turkey has within total electricity energy production and probable meeting capacity of Turkey's hydroelectric potential of its future total demand was determined. According to the results, it is deduced that hydropower energy will have portion of 13.6% within the total electricity energy generation in 2030. In addition, it is concluded that the whole of Turkey's technical and economical hydroelectric energy potential that is equal 1...

A Novel Approach to Comprehensive Economic Evaluations: Case Study of an Inherently Sustainable Technology Using Renewable Energy Sources

Abstract: Traditionally, economic evaluations are based on cost per unit output, which is only suitable for determining short-term and tangible outlooks. A comprehensive economic evaluation of any system should include long-term considerations that are only captured through intangible elements. An evaluation incorporating both the tangible and intangible elements may be considered truly comprehensive. An engineering decision support system that follows such an evaluation process will focus on long-term, even as it tests and selects ingenious solutions that are suitable for tangible and short-term applications. By focusing on long-term, the sustainability criterion is fulfilled, thereby eliminating long-term negative consequences of a short-term remedy. This article proposes a guideline of economic evaluation that will truly identify the best process among different processes for both short-term and long-term applications. As an example, this article evaluates the merit of a sustainable technology that is a...

Transmission Expansion Planning and Cost Allocation Under Market Environments

Abstract: An important component to be considered in electric power system expansion planning is the security of service that the system is able to provide. Under the market environment the effect of expansion on the market conditions also has to be regarded during the planning. This article proposes a new method for transmission expansion planning under market environments which considers global welfare, construction, and security enhancement cost. Finally, a proper method to share the cost of expansion fairly between all network agents is suggested. To investigate the validity of the method, it is applied to the modified Garver 6-bus test system for expansion.