Showing papers in "Futures in 2004"

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided a broad view of the existing knowledge base, organizational structures, and strategies for implementing transdisciplinarity, and they were mindful of the remaining impediments.

TL;DR: In this article, an investigation into the experience of researchers and research managers involved in the European Union Fifth Framework Programme (FP5) with its ambitious encouragement of more integrated problem-oriented approaches to research is described.

TL;DR: In this article, a brief history of the concept of transdisciplinarity is presented, and conclusions are drawn about the perspective that researchers need to adopt if a transdisciplinary approach is to be effective.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify three main types of effects: direct impacts of the production and use of ICTs on the environment (resource use and pollution related to the production of infrastructure and devices, electricity consumption of hardware, electronic waste disposal); indirect impacts related to ICT effects on production processes, products and distribution systems (de-materialisation, substitution of information goods for material goods, and substitution of communication at a distance for travel); and structural/behavioural impacts, mainly through the stimulation of structural change and growth in the economy by ICT, and through

TL;DR: The post-normal approach as mentioned in this paper is based on the precautionary principle and is the appropriate methodology when either systems uncertainties or decision stakes are high; under those conditions the puzzle-solving approach of "normal science" is obsolete.

TL;DR: This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in turbulent environments and suggests an analytical approach for the management of surprising and potentially damaging events using the wild card management system.

TL;DR: The four problems in decision-making are reviewed in detail and scenario planning is posited as a tool for preventing the impact of each, ultimately with an aim of avoiding folly.

TL;DR: The authors argue that much of what is interesting and important about the character of risk tends to be lost by the generalising, decontextualising and reductionist tendencies of discipline-based research.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the concept of transdisciplinarity is closely related to Paul Feyerabend's criticisms of the philosophy of science, which conclude with the famous statement that "anything goes".

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the traditional roles and responsibilities of scientists and professional practitioners should be redefined because shortcomings in academic research and professional practice are mainly the result of a narrow vision that does not address the fundamental issues at stake.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an overview of the most important ideas in the recent literature on innovation systems, technological dynamism and local economic development, and show how the actions of individuals to shape collective local visioning exercises interact with larger institutional structures to produce local outcomes.

TL;DR: In this article, a methodology based on long-wave theory and a sector classification based on technological characteristics is proposed to assess the long-term impact of the development of pervasive technologies on the environment.

TL;DR: In a celebrated lecture given at the Harvard Business School in 1931, Alfred North Whitehead identified "foresight" as the crucial feature of the competent business mind and pointed out that business organizations need to cultivate foresight in order to cope with the relentless change that modernity generates.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored how a top management team developed strategic foresight and decided to launch an Internet bank in a context of uncertainty about the future take up of e-commerce.

TL;DR: Although the author sees these four reasons for using scenario planning as harbouring different degrees of difficulty and likelihood of success, he advocates above all that organizations think carefully about which category is appropriate for them and ensure that the process of scenario planning is designed to support this goal.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the past is not an isolated static state, but one that is intimately connected with the future, and the role of counter-to-factual analysis is emphasized as an antidote to the foresight bias.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the transdisciplinary research program undertaken by the Interdisciplinary Research Group on Suburbs or GIRBa (Groupe interdisciplinaire de recherche sur les banlieues, in French), as well as the collaborative planning process put forward to orient the future of Quebec City's first ring suburbs.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose an agenda for creating an alternative future of food and highlights the current practices that are working towards this alternative. But, they do not address the issues of land alienation, concentration on ownership of land, super exploitation of the peasantry, and creation of famines through globalisation.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that it is only when urban planning has acquired its own identity discipline that it can implement a fecund transdisciplinarity contribution to the knowledge of both the social and engineering sciences.

TL;DR: Evaluation results of the gaming experiment indicate that the gaming–scenario approach generated new and critical insights on development planning and the future of the urban network.

TL;DR: In recent decades, debates have erupted and intensified about the relationships between religions, cultures, and the earth's living systems as mentioned in this paper, and some scholars have argued that ritual and religion can play a salutary role in helping humans regulate natural systems in ecologically sustainable ways.

TL;DR: A variant of scenario planning is introduced, supported by some related new concepts in futures studies, which enables the consideration of multiple views of the present and the past, occurring in multiple systems (e.g. global and local).

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse how much the traditions of history research (HR) and futures research (FR) have in common and how they could assist each other in water and sanitation services and their long-term development.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors demonstrate that the concepts of forecasting and foresight cannot be considered outside of this context and of changes that have occurred in Strategic Thinking, where the needs for more global and interdisciplinary views of problems are striving to integrate Strategic management and entrepreneurship into the new concept of Strategic Entrepreneurship.

TL;DR: It is stressed that it is possible to define a regional DNA1 through the use of CA models, and by doing so contribute to the development of theory, and to support this claim the main historical phases of the computer model simulations in planning are presented.

TL;DR: In this paper, a theory-based empirical examination of a crisis event and its aftermath is conducted to understand how hindsight can be sharpened and then used to improve organizational foresight.

TL;DR: This article defined foresight as being a mental model about the future and considered the role of foresight in shaping actions and events reflected in imperious, heroic, tragic and chaotic futures.

TL;DR: A checklist is proposed based on the integrated foresight management model to compare eight national foresight studies and a new definition of ‘‘generations’’ of foresight is proposed.