Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 1995"

Urbanization, energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development

Abstract: This paper seeks an exploratory assessment of the possible global greenhouse consequences of economic development in general and urbanization in particular, especially insofar as they relate to changing patterns of energy use. First, the nature of the relationship between urbanization and increased resource use is elaborated upon, and the impact of the development transition upon levels of energy consumption is empirically analysed in a multiple regression framework, using cross-national variations in urbanization and other development indicators to estimate a fixed-effects model of the determinants of energy usage. The same set of hypothesized determinants is then used to measure their contribution to estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the full set of countries. Next, we focus upon the subsample of developing countries to study the effects of urbanization upon their evolving profiles of energy use, disaggregated by final use sector and fuel type, and estimate the magnitude of the greenhouse effects attributable to each of these component fuel uses. Finally, we present some of the implications of the results for policies toward urbanization and energy strategies for developing countries in the context of global environmental management imperatives.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases. A global modelling perspective.

Abstract: GCM-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change are used for the assessment of potential changes in areas vulnerable to malaria and schistosomiasis transmission. The study shows that the transmission potential of both vector-borne diseases is very sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the present endemic areas and at higher altitudes within these areas. The health impact will be most pronounced in populations living in the less economically developed temperate areas in which endemicity is low or absent.

Environmental and social impacts of large scale hydroelectric development: who is listening?

Abstract: The most often heard claims in support of large scale hydroelectric development are: (1) hydropower generation is ‘clean’, (2) water flowing freely to the ocean is ‘wasted’, and (3) local residents (usually aboriginals) will benefit from the development. These three claims are critically examined using case histories from Canada and elsewhere in the world. The critique is based mainly on journal articles and books, material that is readily available to the public, and reveals that the three claims cannot be supported by fact. Nevertheless, large scale hydroelectric development continues on a worldwide basis. The public needs to be well informed about the environmental and social consequences of large scale hydroelectric development in order to narrow the gap between its wishes for environmental protection and what is really occurring.

The forgotten casualties: women, children, and environmental change.

Abstract: The concept of equity is used to highlight the impacts of environmental change on women and children. Three types of equity are defined (social, generational, and procedural) and both process and outcome (distributions) dimensions are described. The application of the equity concept to the understanding of the socio-spatial impacts on women and children is illustrated using three themes. The effect of environmental contamination on women and children provides an example of generational inequity. Evidence of social inequity is seen in the poverty, population, environmental degradation spiral especially as it compromises the wellbeing of women and children and their ability to mitigate the consequence of environmental disturbances. Finally, procedural inequities are described in the context of equal rights for women, including their rights to resources. Women and children bear and will continue to bear a disproportionate burden of global environmental changes. They also have unequal capabilities and opportunities for adjustments, rendering them more vulnerable to the regional and global environmental transformations currently underway.

Integrating knowledges for climate-change - pyramids, nets and uncertainties

Abstract: This paper analyses two dominant ways of conceptualising the research agendas in the climate change sphere, the ‘knowledge pyramid’ and the ‘knowledge net’ Using the idea of a ‘certainty trough’ from sociology of science, and employing crop models as an example, it explores the sometimes terse relationship between climate modellers and the climate impacts community The pressures to develop a more holisitic analysis are discussed, but we argue that much integrated assessment modelling still exhibits an implicit and acultural reductionism, and frequently misconstrues the character and significance of uncertainty as well as the role of analytical knowledge in policy making

Rationality of farmer perception of soil erosion

Abstract: Farmer perception of the dangers of soil erosion is increasingly recognized as having a rational basis. Little independent corroboration exists, however, that farmer behaviour accords with the technical efficiency and cost effectiveness of soil and water conservation measures. Accordingly, at three field sites in semiarid Kenya, five conservation treatments — bench terraces ( fanya juu ), tied ridging, contour tillage, trashlines and a control treatment (hand tillage) — were assessed for their performance and compared with farmers' views of the need for conservation and their actual adoption of soil and water conservation measures. Experimentally in terms of differential maize yields, trashlines were found to be the single most effective measure for most (but not all) circumstances. Analyses of marginal rates of return and net present values over ten years indicated tied ridging and terracing also to be worthwhile but only under specific circumstances of soil quality and labour availability. A questionnaire survey in the three trial areas revealed that farmers' opinions and rate of adoption of techniques closely match the conclusions from the experimental plots. Small farmer behaviour is rational in this marginal and difficult environment.

The equitable international allocation of tradable carbon emission permits

Abstract: The claim that equity considerations can play a significant role in negotiations over the international allocation of tradable permits for carbon emissions is challenged on the grounds that theories of distributive Justice have very little to contribute as regards distributive Justice between sovereign states. In so far as distributive justice principles are to be invoked at all they would imply that some International agency should be allowed to sell or lease some of the total permits to be allocated and to use the revenues for ald to the most needy individuals in society, irrespective of where they live. The remaining permits should be distributed between countries according to criteria that enjoy wide acceptability in negotiation situations involving mutual shares in collective burdens.

IPCC gazing and the interpretative social sciences: A comment on Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen's: ‘Global climate protection policy: the limits of scientific advice’

Abstract: This comment is a response to the 2-part paper ‘Global climate protection policy: the limits of scientific advice’ by Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen recently published in Global Environmental Change. We present some problems with Boehmer-Christiansen's core argument that the involvement of the research community in the IPCC has primarily been motivated by the desire to acquire more research funds. We stress the role of negotiation (between different groups and at different levels) at the IPCC and discuss some of its learning processes. We also use this case to comment on the role of the interpretative social sciences in global environmental change research.

The sustainability of Papua New Guinea agricultural systems: the conceptual background

Abstract: Papua New Guinea offers an opportunity to study the Intensification and sustainability of village agriculture under the pressures of demographic change and social and economic development. This paper describes research investigating the process of agricultural intensification. Theories of intensification suggest the process is associated with increasing population, or with increased production for social purposes, or both. Intensification brings about changes that must be overcome by innovation. Innovation may demand temporary or permanent increases in labour, and changes in the social relations of production, but intensification without innovation is likely to lead to land degradation. A tension exists between the environment, social organization, production and the adoption of innovative techniques, which may determine whether intensification is sustainable. The research is presently identifying, mapping and systematically describing agricultural systems. Preliminary results suggest intensification is positively associated with altitude, sweet potato (lpomoea batatas) cultivation, and with a number of innovative agronomic techniques.

Production pressure and environmental change in the forest-savanna zone of Southern Ghana

Abstract: This study confirms the view that changes in the biophysical environment are significantly related to production pressure. The scattered concentrations of forest species in Ghana's forest-savanna zone evidently are relics of a dominant natural forest. Deforestation has entailed environmental quality deterioration, including biodiversity loss, and impoverishment of the soils. Farmers try to counter environmental change by modifying cropping and intensifying production, but without much success because of poverty and tenurial and technological constraints. Associated with population and market pressures for production, the change calls for greater attention to sustainable small farmer environmental management systems.

Gender and the environment. Women's time use as a measure of environmental change.

Abstract: Women are thought to have a multiplicity of roles as agents, victims and saviours in relation to environmental change. This paper takes an innovative approach to the study of gender and the environment by utilizing women's time use as a surrogate measure of changes in gender roles under conditions of environmental stress. Case studies are drawn from dryland areas of Sri Lanka, Burkina Faso, Ghana, the Sudan and the Caribbean. There is considerable evidence that women have shorter hours of rest than men, that gender roles are becoming more flexible and that environmental degradation increases women's workload.

Patterns and management of agroforestry systems in Yunnan: An approach to upland rural development☆

Abstract: Characterized by great cultural and environmental diversity, China's South-Western Yunnan Province supports an exceptionally rich and dynamic agrodiversity. Since 1990 the Traditional Land Management Systems (TLM) Research Programme has researched change, variation, and adaptability of Yunnan's little studied agroforestry systems in four different areas. Research efforts focus on the interplay between these agroforestry systems, shifting land and resource rights, rural government policies, indigenous management, demographic change, and market conditions, The authors review agrodiversity in Yunnan by briefly highlighting specific forms of agrodiversity and by examining in-depth the transition of Zhuoxi Village farmers, a TLM research area, from swidden agriculture to a predominantly agroforestry based economy.

Postscript: the ‘population-environment nexus’ and PLEC

Abstract: PLEC research impinges directly on the so-called ‘population-environment nexus’, working among small farmers in the developing countries, and seeking explanation of why some manage their land and biota well, while others drive them to destruction. In the literature, to which PLEC is adding, there is now growing evidence that population growth can be accompanied by environmental enhancement or recovery, as well as destruction. This evidence, especially from Africa, is reviewed. It is also noted that underlying as well as proximate causes apply in any explanation, and that single factor hypotheses are unlikely to stand the test of close examination. ‘Agrodiversity’, as a characteristic of many small farmers' practice, is analysed and contrasted with the ‘agrosimplicity’ yielded by many modern interventions. It is urged in conclusion that the ‘nexus’ is by definition an over-simplification, and that a proper approach both to explanation and for practical improvement of the management of dynamic environments, lies in an approach which pays close attention to farmers' own practices and their knowledge.

Montane Mainland South-East Asia: agroecosystems in transition

Abstract: The mountainous regions of mainland South-East Asia have been a classic ground both for the study of shifting agriculture systems, 1 and for their condemnation National policy in Laos, 2 Vietnam, 3 Thailand 4 and China 5 has all been based on the belief that traditional practices of shifting agriculture are wasteful and destructive Development policy is carried out on the assumption that certain land use practices, such as planting rubber in South-Western China and fruit trees in northern Thailand, building terraces and planting contour vegetative strips, or conversion of flat land into paddles for wetland rice are the basis for sustainable land use Under certain conditions, however, these and similar solutions may actually lead to more problems than they solve In this paper we use the agroecosystem as a framework of analysis, and suggest that changes affecting elements within an agroecosystem can render the entire system unsustainable We pay attention particularly to the growth of the human population, to increasing commercialization, to efforts made to find substitutes for opium as a cash crop, and to the rapidly emerging consequences of transborder trade in the region Our report is based on recent studies in Thailand and Laos 6

Regulating sustainable development

Abstract: Sustainable development is an intui tively rational and attractive idea which has solicited considerable interest from both academics and policy makers in recent years. Despite this the prospect of operationalizing the concept in any meaningful way now appears increasingly remote. In this paper we attempt to identify key deflciencies in extant approaches to sustainable development. We then argue that the formulation of a more substantial theory requires the incor poration of key insights from social theory. We subsequently develop this agenda by linking current ideas on sustainable development with regulation theory, This, we suggest, allows further progress to be made in understanding what sustainability must be and how it might best be achieved.

Land use changes in the Amazon estuary

Abstract: The estuarine floodplain inhabitants of Amazon near Belem, Brazil, are making the transition from swidden farming to permanent farming based on palm agro-forests. The region is characterized by rapidly increasing population, proximity to major urban centres, and inhabitants who are fully participating in the market economy. These factors, however, have not led to an intensified use of labour and land. Instead, the pattern has been toward less intense use with higher returns than the previous one. A combination of factors, including social, economic, and political changes within the past two decades, the cultural patterns of the region, and the distinctive environment are responsible for the new pattern. This case study suggests that there are no universal paradigms to explain labour and land use changes.

The use and limits of remote sensing for analysing environmental and social change in the Himalayan Middle Mountains of Nepal

Abstract: The ‘middle mountains’ zone of the Himalayas is a region in stress due to human actions undertaken in a high energy environment. This study is an Initial exploration of this region of human environment ‘criticality’ or ‘endangerment’ through the lens of remotely sensed Imagery. Three villages in the Middle Mountains representing different environmental and socioeconomic situations are examined by means of image processing of Landsat Thematic Mapper data, coupled with ground studies, in order to identify indicators of social and environmental change expressed in the landscape. Preliminary results are both encouraging and cautioning. Indications are that 30 metre resolution satellite data can provide useful information associated with broad land management practices, landesque capital, and land cover changes. Such data are important for the debate on Himalayan environmental degradation, but ideally need to be combined with ground truthing, fieldwork, and interviewing to provide an assessment of types and causes of environmental change.

The social construction of acid rain. Some implications for science/ policy assessment

Abstract: There is currently a great deal of discussion in various national and international fora about how to design global change research programmes (for an overview of part of the terrain see Price). 1 American policy analysts often invoke the National Acid Precipitation Project (NAPAP) as a textbook example of how not to do policy relevant research (see for example US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment 2 ). We fear that the wrong conclusions are being drawn from the NAPAP experience. In this paper we re-examine NAPAP with a view towards discovering what this experience can teach us about global change research initiatives.

Avoiding ‘dangerous’ interference in the climate system

Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) held a workshop in Fortaleza, Brazil (October 1994), to help provide the scientific underpinnings for the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): “… stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the climate system …”. Scientists can assist in helping to identify exposureeffect relationships between changes in climate variables and the structure or function of ecosystems or socioeconomic sectors, and how these relationships might vary by ecosystem and location. But determination of ‘dangerous’ is not solely a scientific process: it involves judgments about what attributes of ecosystems and human activities are most highly valued and what level of change can be considered critical. In the future, further interaction is needed between the policy and scientific communities to help policymakers develop a better understanding of the complexities of the climate system and to assure that the scientific community provides information that is useful to evaluating alternative responses to climate change.

Methane embodied in the international trade of commodities

Abstract: Countries are now setting goals seeking to limit emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and many countries are also addressing measures to control methane (CH 4 ), the next most important gas after CO 2 . Current methods for estimating domestic greenhouse gas emissions do not take into account CH 4 and other gases released abroad when producing the imported goods. In this paper, the amount of CH 4 that is currently released in countries that have not adopted greenhouse gas emissions targets to produce exports consumed in countries that have pledged to stabilize or reduce CH 4 emissions, is analysed. Commodity trading in 1990 that involved the most CH 4 intensive agricultural goods — rice, meat, and milk products — is assessed for six developed countries, the USA, UK, Germany, Japan, France and Canada. The amount of CH 4 ‘embodied’, or released in exporting countries while producing the goods traded with these six countries, is calculated. The total amount of CH 4 embodied in imports from developing countries for these six nations in 1990 is estimated to be nearly 1200 kt, about 7% of emissions from livestock for these importing countries, and 9% of emissions from rice produced within the importing countries own borders. This level is greater than domestic anthropogenic CH 4 released from all sources for most countries (103 out of 140 countries surveyed). The UK is the greatest importer of CH 4 embodied goods, with imports of agricultural products equivalent to 23% of emissions from these agricultural sources. While currently the CH 4 released in producing imports to these countries is small, the rate could grow considerably in the future. Factors that will influence this growth include removal of traditional subsidies and levies in Europe, Japan, the USA and in some developing countries. As developing country livestock production becomes more competitive, the opportunity for trade in CH 4 embodied products is likely to increase. Possible circumvention of national CH 4 targets could be controlled by changing the methodology for estimating national greenhouse gas emissions so that trade is taken into account. The more practical and equitable approach is to extend greenhouse gas emissions targets to all countries participating in the climate convention, using an emission trading scheme or an international funding mechanism for transferring resources.

Global environmental change, sociology, and paradigm isolation

Abstract: There are three broad categories of thought on how to respond to problems associated with global environmental change: structural economic change and grassroots mobilization; international diplomacy and regime building; and cultural/behavioural transformation. These categories of thought correspond to the classical paradigms of sociology — that is, to the class, managerial, and pluralist perspectives. Many writings on global environmental change adhere to the tenets of one particular paradigm while ignoring, downplaying the significance of, or challenging the tenets of other paradigms. The article discusses the dangers of such compartmentalization and recommends that writers on global environmental change work to cross paradigm boundaries.

The IPCC: policy relevant (not driven) scientific assessment

Abstract: Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen's recent articles on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describe the role of the IPCC in the evolution of climate change policy. This comment responds to several assertions contained in the articles and raises questions about potential distortion of scientific information in the policy process.

Energy inequities within developing countries

Abstract: A major theme of development during the half century since the end of World War II has been that of closing the affluence gap between the richer and poorer countries of the world. It is thus not surprising that a principal focus of the worldwide discussions on global environmental change during the past decade has been the issue of equity between countries. The evolving concept of sustainable development has drawn attention to the need of maintaining some equity between generations. In contrast, there has been relatively little attention paid to issues of equity within countries. In many parts of the world, the disparities within countries are as large as those between the developing and the industrialized countries, and these inequities need to be addressed much more explicitly than has been the case so far. In this paper, differences in energy use in South Asia between the low income and middle class households for cooking, transportation, and electricity, are used as illustrations of the disparities within countries. These have implications in terms of the impact of each group on the global environment, as well as on the local environment.

Explaining national climate change policies

Abstract: In this article, the ‘interest based explanation’ for international environmental policy is used to investigate the climate change issue. By assessing vulnerability and abatement costs for 24 OECD countries, their respective policy positions are predicted. These are then compared with those policies that actually exist in the international debate to date. Of the 24 countries' policy positions, 11 are accurately predicted, while 13 fail. The article concludes with some comments about the limitations and potential of the interest based explanation.

Long-term subsistence adaptation to the diversified Papua New Guinea environment: Human ecological assessments and prospects

Abstract: Adaptive diversity of Papua New Guinea peoples, represented by population densities varying from less than 1 person to more than 100 persons/km2, is mostly attributable to their agricultural systems in accordance with the natural and sociocultural environment. Comparison of long-term adaptation among several populations selected for highland/lowland status and degree of modernization is expected to clarify the causal relationships and to predict future potential. This article discusses relationships between productivity and sustainability of agriculture and population dynamics in the agrodiversified environment in Papua New Guinea.

Population, land management and environmental change: the genesis of PLEC within the United Nations University programme

Abstract: PLEC addresses a central issue for sustainable development In the tropical and sub-tropical parts of the world, namely the Interlinkages between population processes, land management and environmental change. The programme forms part of the United Nations University programme area entitled ‘Sustaining Global Life-Support Systems.’ The programme area responds to the United Nations Agenda 21 focusing on selected issues of sustainable development where the University has specific competence. PLEC has strong complementarity with other UNU programmes in this area, including the long standing programme on ‘Mountain Ecology and Sustainable Development’. Close collaboration has also been established between PLEC and the UNU Institute for Natural Resources in Africa (UNU/INRA) based In Ghana, which gives specific backstopping support to the PLEC Clusters in West and East Africa.