Showing papers in "Journal of Policy Analysis and Management in 2006"

The Effectiveness of Regulatory Disclosure Policies.

Abstract: Regulatory transparency—mandatory disclosure of information by private or public institutions with a regulatory intent—has become an important frontier of government innovation. This paper assesses the effectiveness of such transparency systems by examining the design and impact of financial disclosure, nutritional labeling, workplace hazard communication, and five other diverse systems in the United States. We argue that transparency policies are effective only when the information they produce becomes “embedded” in the everyday decision-making routines of information users and information disclosers. This double-sided embeddedness is the most important condition for transparency systems' effectiveness. Based on detailed case analyses, we evaluate the user and discloser embeddedness of the eight major transparency policies. We then draw on a comprehensive inventory of prior studies of regulatory effectiveness to assess whether predictions about effectiveness based on characteristics of embeddedness are consistent with those evaluations. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

State‐level predictors of food insecurity among households with children

Abstract: This article examines interstate variation in household food security. Using hierarchical modeling, we identify several kinds of state characteristics that appear linked to household food security: the availability and accessibility of federal nutrition assistance programs, policies affecting economic wellbeing of low income families, and states' economic and social characteristics. These dimensions comprise what we refer to as the state food security infrastructure. We find that a strong food security infrastructure is particularly beneficial to families who are economically vulnerable yet have incomes above the poverty line. Almost all of the observed interstate differences in food security can be explained by crossstate differences in demographic and contextual characteristics. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Public management reform and organizational performance: An empirical assessment of the U.K. Labour government's public service improvement strategy

Abstract: We present the first empirical assessment of the U.K. Labour government's program of public management reform. This reform program is based on rational planning, devolution and delegation, flexibility and incentives, and enhanced choice. Measures of these variables are tested against external and internal indicators of organizational performance. The setting for the study is upper tier English local governments, and data are drawn from a multiple informant survey of 117 authorities. The statistical results indicate that planning, organizational flexibility, and user choice are associated with higher performance. Conclusions are drawn for the theory and practice of public management reform. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Alternative routes to teaching: The impacts of Teach for America on student achievement and other outcomes

Abstract: This paper reports on a randomized experiment to study the impact of an alternative teacher preparation program, Teach for America (TFA), on student achievement and other outcomes. We found that TFA teachers had a positive impact on math achievement and no impact on reading achievement. The size of the impact on math scores was about 15 percent of a standard deviation, equivalent to about one month of instruction. The general conclusions did not differ substantially for subgroups of teachers, including novice teachers, or for subgroups of students. We found no impacts on other student outcomes such as attendance, promotion, or disciplinary incidents, but TFA teachers were more likely to report problems with student behavior than were their peers. The findings contradict claims that such programs allowing teachers to bypass the traditional route to the classroom harm students. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

School choice in Chile: Is it class or the classroom?

Abstract: Skeptics of school choice are concerned that parents, especially low-income ones, will not choose schools based on sound academic reasoning. Many fear that, given choice, parents will sort themselves into different schools along class lines. How-ever, most surveys find that parents of all socioeconomic groups cite academic aspects as important when choosing a school. Moreover, almost no parents refer to the social composition of the student body. Many advocates of choice hold up these results as proof that choice will produce desirable outcomes. However, these results may not be reliable because they may simply be verbal responses to survey items rather than indicators of actual behavior. In this research, we report on the search behavior of parents in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile, examining how they construct their school choice sets and comparing this to what they say they are seeking in choosing schools. The data indicate that parental decisions are influenced by demographics. Based on this evidence, we argue that unfettered choice may reduce the pressure on schools to improve their performance and could potentially increase stratification. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

A Re-Examination of Welfare States and Inequality in Rich Nations: How In-Kind Transfers and Indirect Taxes Change the Story.

Abstract: Previous studies find large crossnational differences in inequality amongst rich Western nations, due in large part to differences in the generosity of welfare state transfers. The United States is the least generous nation and the one having the most aftertax and transfer inequality. But these analyses are limited to the effects of cash and nearcash transfers and direct taxes on incomes, while on average, half of welfare state transfers in rich nations are inkind benefits—health insurance, education, and other services. Counting inkind benefits at government cost and accounting for the indirect taxes used to finance transfers substantially reduces crossnational differences in inequality at the bottom of the income distribution. The findings have implications for how we think about tradeoffs across welfare state domains that all nations face and we illustrate this with reference to the current U.S. debate about health insurance. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Affirmative action: What do we know?

Abstract: In this paper we review the research evidence on the effects of affirmative action in employment, university admissions and government procurement. We consider effects on both equity (or distribution) as well as efficiency. Overall, we find that affirmative action does redistribute jobs, university admissions and government contracts away from white males towards minorities and females, though the overall magnitudes of these shifts are relatively modest. We also find that affirmative action shifts jobs and university admissions to minorities who have weaker credentials, but there is little solid evidence to date of weaker labor market performance among its beneficiaries. While those students admitted to universities under affirmative action have weaker grades and higher dropout rates than their white counterparts at selective schools, they seem to benefit overall in terms of higher graduation rates and later salaries. Affirmative action also generates positive externalities for the minority and low-income communities (in terms of better medical services and labor market contacts), and perhaps for employers and universities as well. More research on a variety of these issues is also clearly needed.

A cure for crime: Can mental health treatment diversion reduce crime among youth?

Abstract: Youth crime is a serious social problem, as is the high proportion of young offenders in the juvenile justice system who have mental disorders. A recent policy innovation applies the theory of therapeutic jurisprudence and diverts youth with mental disorders to treatment in lieu of further court processing. The expansion of mental health diversion programs reflects an increasingly popular view that there is a causal relationship between youth mental disorders and crime. Policymakers who share this view place greater emphasis on rehabilitation and treatment as a way to reduce crime, rather than on stricter punishment. This paper considers the policy issues around youth mental health diversion programs. In addition, it evaluates the effect of a mental health diversion program for youth that was implemented in Texas. The paper finds that mental health diversion can be used effectively to delay or prevent youth recidivism.

Contracting for management: Assessing management capacity under alternative service delivery arrangements

Abstract: Contracting critics suggest that when governments outsource, they reduce their capacity to produce services and manage service delivery. In this paper, we decompose the service delivery decision into service production and service management components. When governments contract for service production, they may also choose to contract for a portion of service delivery management. Studies that only compare the management activities of contracting and direct service delivery governments, without examining the management activities contracted to vendors, are likely to be incomplete and biased. Drawing on a unique survey of governmental refuse collection service directors, matched with a survey of refuse collection vendors operating under municipal contracts, we show that the vendors' management activities offset the decline in management capacity that occurs when governments contract for service delivery for this particular service. Governments can “buy” management activities when contracting for service production. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Has the Food Stamp program become more accessible? Impacts of recent changes in reporting requirements and asset eligibility limits

Abstract: This paper uses data from the 1996 and 2001 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to assess the impact of recent policy initiatives intended to increase access to Food Stamps. It finds that reductions in state certification requirements increased Food Stamp participation rates of income-eligible families with children by one to two percentage points from 2001 to 2003, a change that is comparable to the impact of changes in economic conditions over this period. It did not find consistent evidence of an impact of relaxing vehicle asset limits, or of offering continuous eligibility through the Semi-Annual/Simplified Reporting option. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Curbside recycling: Waste resource or waste of resources?

Abstract: In this paper, we address the often contentious debate over state and local recycling policy by carefully estimating the social net benefit of curbside recycling. Benefits are estimated using household survey data from over 4,000 households across 40 western U.S. cities. We calibrate household willingnesstopay for hypothetical bias using an innovative experimental design that contrasts stated and revealed preferences. Cost estimates are compiled from previous studies by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Institute for Local Self Reliance, and from indepth interviews with recycling coordinators in our sampled cities. Across our sample of cities, we find that the estimated mean social net benefit of curbside recycling is almost exactly zero. On a citybycity basis, however, our social netbenefit analysis often makes clear predictions about whether a curbside recycling program is an efficient use of resources. Surprisingly, several curbside recycling programs in our sample appear to be inefficient. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

Is Full Better than Half? Examining the Longitudinal Effects of Full-Day Kindergarten Attendance.

Abstract: Kindergarten policy varies widely both across and within states. Over the past decade, a number of states have instituted a full-day kindergarten requirement and others are considering it as a way to increase educational achievement. Many parents also support full-day kindergarten as a source of child care. This paper uses the Early Child Longitudinal Study–Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999 to evaluate the efficacy of this policy. In ordinary least squares, probit, county fixed effects, and instrumental variables models, we find that there are initial benefits for students and the mothers of students who attend full-day kindergarten, but that these differences largely evaporate by third grade. Contrary to claims by some advocates, attending full-day kindergarten is found to have no additional benefit for students in families with income below the poverty threshold. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Changes in the welfare caseload and the health of low-educated mothers.

Abstract: Declines in the welfare caseload in the late 1990s brought significant change to the lives of many low-educated, single mothers. Many single mothers left welfare and entered the labor market and others found different ways to avoid going on public assistance. These changes may have affected the health and health behaviors of these women. To date, there has been little study of this issue. In this paper, we obtained estimates of the association between changes in the welfare caseload caused by welfare policy, and four health behaviors—smoking, drinking, diet, and exercise—and four self-reported measures of health—weight, days in poor mental health, days in poor physical health, and general health status. The results of our study reveal that recent declines in the welfare caseload were associated with less binge drinking, but otherwise welfare reform had little effect on health and health behaviors. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Nonprofit housing and neighborhood spillovers

Abstract: Nonprofit organizations play a critical role in U.S. housing policy, a role typically justified by the claim that their housing investments produce significant neighbor-hood spillover benefits. However, little work has actually been done to measure these impacts on neighborhoods. This paper compares the neighborhood spillover effects of city-supported rehabilitation of rental housing undertaken by nonprofit and for-profit developers, using data from New York City. To measure these benefits, we use increases in neighboring property values, estimated from a difference-in-difference specification of a hedonic regression model. We study the impacts of about 43,000 units of city-supported housing completed during the 1980s and 1990s, and our sample of property transactions includes nearly 300,000 individual sales. We find that both nonprofit and for-profit projects generate significant, positive spillover effects. This finding in itself is significant, given the widespread skepticism about the impact of subsidized housing on neighborhoods. We also find some differences across sectors. First, the impact of nonprofit housing remains stable over time, whereas the effect of for-profit housing declines slightly with time. Second, while large for-profit and nonprofit developments deliver similar benefits, in the case of small projects, for-profit developments generate greater impacts than their nonprofit counterparts. These differences are consistent with theoretical predictions. In particular, in the presence of information asymmetries with respect to housing quality, the non-distribution constraint should lead nonprofits to invest more than for-profits in developing and maintaining features that benefit the broader community. Meanwhile, the fact that scale makes a difference to nonprofit impacts may reflect the capacity constraints often faced by smaller nonprofits. ©2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Does sex education affect adolescent sexual behaviors and health

Abstract: This study examines whether offering sex education to young teenagers affects several measures of adolescent sexual behavior and health: virginity status, contraceptive use, frequency of intercourse, likelihood of pregnancy, and probability of contracting a sexually transmitted disease. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, I find that while sex education is associated with adverse health outcomes, there is little evidence of a causal link after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity via fixed effects and instrumental variables. These findings suggest that those on each side of the ideological debate over sex education are, in a sense, both correct and mistaken. Opponents are correct in observing that sex education is associated with adverse health outcomes, but are generally incorrect in interpreting this relationship causally. Proponents are generally correct in claiming that sex education does not encourage risky sexual activity, but are incorrect in asserting that investments in typical school-based sex education programs produce measurable health benefits.

Did welfare reform influence the fertility of young teens

Abstract: During the 1990s, states made several reforms to their welfare programs designed to reduce teenage fertility among minors. Among the most prominent of these changes, states started requiring teenage mothers younger than 18 to live with a parent or legal guardian and enroll in high school in order to receive welfare benefits. Using natality data from the National Center for Health Statistics, we compare the trend in fertility rates for young women aged 15 to 17 to the trend for a control group of 18-year-olds. Our estimates imply that the annual percent decline in fertility rates following implementation of these minor parent provisions was 0.7 percentage points larger for young teens than for teens aged 18, a difference of over 22 percent.

Attracting private investment to contaminated properties: The value of public interventions

Abstract: We employ a mail survey of private developers that uses conjoint choice experiments and Likert-scaled attitudinal questions to examine preferences for policy instruments and incentives intended to encourage brownfield cleanup and redevelopment. Our analysis suggests that developers judge public hearing requirements at brownfield redevelopments unattractive, but that they place a relatively high value on liability relief—from both cleanup costs and claims by third parties. Reimbursement of environmental assessment costs is not particularly attractive. We also find considerable heterogeneity among developers in the value they place on these incentives, depending on their experience with contaminated sites. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Downsizing, competition, and organizational change in government: Is necessity the mother of invention?

Abstract: One answer to the question of why government organizations don't perform better—common in academic “public choice” literature but also in folk wisdom—is that resources come too easily, independent of performance. Some businessmanagement literature suggests that a crisis in resource flows can force successful change—”necessity is the mother of invention.” However, the literature also presents an alternative view: that crisis promotes rigid preprogrammed responses, not new ways of behaving. This paper examines the impact of crisis on organizational change in government by examining an organizational change effort in the U.S. federal government (procurement reform during the 1990s) that occurred simultaneously with an organizational crisis involving workforce downsizing and introduction of competition for some buying offices. Using a dataset consisting of a survey of approximately 1,600 frontline government contracting officials, the impact of variation in crisis at different buying offices on variation in behavior change is examined. Necessity was found to be the mother of invention, not rigidity. However, these effects were counteracted by two negative effects of crisis on organizational change: 1) employee resentment over violation of a “social contract at work” reduced behavior change, 2) employee association of the change effort with downsizing reduced attitudinal support for the change, which translated into reduced behavior change. On balance, crisis inhibited organizational change, rather than promoting it. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Does a More Centralized Urban Form Raise Housing Prices

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between various quantitative measures of urban centralization and urban housing prices through the use of a 2000 data set from the 452 Census designated urbanized areas in the United States. An empirical study of this type is necessary because: (1) the theoretical influence of creating more centralized urban areas—or what many would consider less “sprawl”—on what people pay for housing is indeterminate, (2) now popular “Smart Growth” policies advocate more centralized urban areas, and (3) some have argued that a cost of this centralization is an increase in the price of homes. After controlling for differences across United States urbanized areas in residents' economic status and demographics, number and type of households, climate, household growth, nonresidential land uses, and the structural characteristics of houses, we find that a more centralized area exhibits a lower median home value and percentage of homes in an upper-end price category. Therefore, we offer no evidence to support the contention that a successful effort to further centralize an urban area raises the price of homes in that urban area. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Presidential address: Evidence-based decision making: What will it take for the decision makers to care?

Abstract: Over the past 10 years, there has been a growing emphasis on evidence-based policy and practice throughout in the United States and elsewhere around the world. This should be music to the ears of the APPAM membership, as most of us entered our professions, in no small part, to feed our personal interests in helping make the world a better place. The field of public policy research has changed enormously in the 26 years since the founding of APPAM in ways that have improved the quality of evidence that can be produced, expanded the breadth of questions addressed, and broadened avenues for communicating findings. Still, we are far from a world in which evidence is routinely and smartly produced and integrated into decision making. APPAM’s mission is to “[improve] public policy and management by fostering excellence in research, analysis, and education.” Yet, much of the research we produce is ignored or misused for three main reasons. First, some of the research produces results that lack credibility. We know how to judge the credibility of study findings and should be vigilant in doing so. Second, much research addresses questions that have intrinsic interest and value, but yield results that are not helpful to policymakers and practitioners and, indeed, may be misinterpreted by them. We should sift and sort the information we direct to the policy and practitioner communities to promote proper interpretation and application of evidence. Third, there are many terrific examples of valuable syntheses of evidence on particular issues. However, there also are many examples of nonsystematic (and, in some cases, biased) reviews of evidence. There are well-established, but poorly disseminated methods for systematically synthesizing evidence on particular questions in ways that provide clear guidance regarding what we do and do not know with a particular degree of confidence. Three personal experiences that have occurred during the course of trying to provide policy-relevant answers to important questions illustrate some challenges in using research for the development and management of public policy and to guide practice. Experience 1. The question is: Are there things that could or should be done to improve the neighborhoods where children live? Three evidence-based answers are: Yes, No, and Maybe. 1 This talk reflects much that I have learned from my colleagues in APPAM and elsewhere, including those who have been my collaborators, my teachers, my mentors, and my students. There are too many of you to name individually. But you know who you are. One or more of you deserves credit for any true insight that may be lurking in this talk. I am grateful to Phoebe Cottingham, Stuart Kerachsky, Lauren Scher, and Matthew Stagner for very useful comments on an early draft of this talk. I alone am responsible for any errors or omissions.

Do Experimental and Nonexperimental Evaluations Give Different Answers about the Effectiveness of Government-Funded Training Programs?.

Abstract: This paper uses meta-analysis to investigate whether random assignment (or experimental) evaluations of voluntary government-funded training programs for the disadvantaged have produced different conclusions than nonexperimental evaluations. Information includes several hundred estimates from 31 evaluations of 15 programs that operated between 1964 and 1998. The results suggest that experimental and nonexperimental evaluations yield similar conclusions about the effectiveness of training programs, but that estimates of average effects for youth and possibly men might have been larger in experimental studies. The results also suggest that variation among nonexprimental estimates of program effects is similar to variation among experimental estimates for men and youth, but not for women (for whom it seems to be larger), although small sample sizes make the estimated differences somewhat imprecise for all three groups. The policy implications of the findings are discussed. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Five‐Year Effects of an Anti‐Poverty Program on Marriage among Never‐Married Mothers

Abstract: Using data from an experimental evaluation of the New Hope project, an anti-poverty program that increased employment and income, this study examined the effects of New Hope on entry into marriage among never-married mothers. Among never-married mothers, New Hope significantly increased rates of marriage. Five years after random assignment, 21 percent of women assigned to the New Hope condition were married, compared to 12 percent of those assigned to the control group. The New Hope impact on marriage was robust to variations in model specification. The program also increased income, wage growth, and goal efficacy among never-married mothers, and decreased depression. In non-experimental analyses, income and earnings were associated with higher probability of marriage and material hardship was associated with lower probability of marriage. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Does early adolescent sex cause depressive symptoms

Abstract: A recent study by the Heritage Foundation (Rector, Johnson, & Noyes, 2003) found evidence of a positive relationship between early sexual intercourse and depressive symptoms. This finding has been used to bolster support for funding abstinence only sex education. However, promoting abstinence will only yield mental health benefits if there is a causal link between sexual intercourse and depression. Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), I carefully examine the relationship between early teen sex and several measures of depression. Controlling for a wide set of individual level and family level observable characteristics, cross section estimates consistently show a significant positive relationship between early sexual activity for females and three measures of adverse mental health: self reported depression, a belief that one's life is not worth living, and serious thoughts of suicide. However, difference-in-difference estimates reflect no evidence of a significant relationship between early teen sex and depressive symptoms. These findings suggest that the positive association observed by Rector et al. (2003) can be explained by unmeasured heterogeneity. Thus, promoting abstinence among adolescents is unlikely to alleviate depressive symptoms Language: en

Reducing Traffic Fatalities in the American States by Upgrading Seat Belt Use Laws to Primary Enforcement.

Abstract: A key component of crime deterrence is the certainty of detection, but in 2005 seat belt laws in 27 states prohibited law enforcement officers from ticketing an observed violation unless the driver is stopped for another offense, which is referred to as secondary enforcement. Thirteen states and the District of Columbia have upgraded from secondary to primary enforcement, which authorizes police to stop a motor vehicle if a driver or occupant covered by the law is observed not using a seat belt. To test the impact of seat belt enforcement provisions, cross-sectional time series regressions are estimated for annual driver and occupant fatality rates in the American states from 1990 to 2002. Using several control variables for other traffic policies and state demographics, the results indicate primary enforcement is more effective in saving lives than secondary enforcement. Furthermore, upgrading to a primary law enhances the effectiveness of an existing state mandatory use law. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management Language: en

Job Sprawl, Spatial Mismatch, and Black Employment Disadvantage.

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between job sprawl and the spatial mismatch between blacks and jobs. Using data from a variety of sources, including the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census and U.S. Department of Commerce's ZIP Code Business Patterns, I control extensively for metropolitan area characteristics and other factors. In addition, I use metropolitan area physical geography characteristics as instruments for job sprawl to address the problem of simultaneity bias. I find a significant and positive effect of job sprawl on mismatch conditions faced by blacks that remains evident in the twostage least squares models but not in first difference change regressions. The crosssectional effect is particularly important in the Midwest and West, and in metropolitan areas where blacks' share of the population is large and where blacks' population growth rate is relatively low. Among others, the results also reveal that the measures of mismatch and job sprawl used in this analysis are highly correlated with blacks' employment outcomes in the expected direction. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management