Showing papers in "Political Behavior in 1997"

Toward a Psychology of Framing Effects

Abstract: Framing is the process by which a communication source constructs and defines a social or political issue for its audience. While many observers of political communication and the mass media have discussed framing, few have explicitly described how framing affects public opinion. In this paper we offer a theory of framing effects, with a specific focus on the psychological mechanisms by which framing influences political attitudes. We discuss important conceptual differences between framing and traditional theories of persuasion that focus on belief change. We outline a set of hypotheses about the interaction between framing and audience sophistication, and test these in an experiment. The results support our argument that framing is not merely persuasion, as it is traditionally conceived. We close by reflecting on the various routes by which political communications can influence attitudes.

Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity

Abstract: Much previous research shows that variation in vote choice closely follows variation in economic perceptions over time. A number of scholars argue that the pattern is rooted in cross-sectional effects and have found apparent evidence of such effects. However, most of these studies do not take into account the possibility that economic perceptions are themselves structured by vote choice, which poses potentially serious implications. We begin to address this endogeneity, focusing specifically on Lewis-Beck's (1988) analysis of economic voting. The results suggest that the cross-sectional effects of the economy on vote choice have been substantially overstated.

Economic Conditions, Economic Perceptions, and Public Support for European Integration

Abstract: Public attitudes play an important-sometimes crucial-role in the process of European integration. This is evident from the two most recent attempts at institutional and geographical reform of the European Union (EU). In a June 1992 referendum, the Danish public effectively halted the further institutional and economic integration of Europe by rejecting the Treaty on European Union. Two years later, Norwegian voters chose to reject membership in the EU. Less obviously, but more regularly, public attitudes influence EU policymaking through traditional political channels such as elections and lobbying. How do Europeans structure their attitudes toward integration? Given that economic growth and development are both central motivations for integration and among the predominant responsibilities of the European Union (EU), it seems reasonable that the EU public would evaluate integration based upon economic criteria. Previous studies have investigated this hypothesis in two ways. First, Gabel and Palmer (1995) investigated how the differential economic benefits of integrative policy relate to individual-level differences in public support for integration. They found that EU citizens' support for integration varies consistently with the differential benefits associated with occupational skills, education, wealth, and intra-EU trade. Eichenberg and Dalton (1993) investigated how objective national economic conditions and national net return from the EU budget related to national-level variation in

The Effect of Interviewer Gender on the Survey Response

Abstract: We examined the existence of gender-of-interviewer effects in two local-area surveys in which male and female interviewers were randomly assigned to interview male and female respondents. Small but consistent gender-of-interviewer effects arose on questions related to the women's movement, women's issues, and gender equality, demonstrating that, as expected, respondents were more likely to provide feminist answers to female interviewers. Gender-of-interviewer effects were somewhat more pronounced and consistent on controversial political topics: the women's movement (feminists and political activism) and their policy agenda. There was mixed evidence on whether respondents were equally susceptible to gender-of-interviewer effects. In one of the surveys, gender-of-interviewer effects were more pronounced among less well-educated and younger respondents than among respondents who were better educated or older. This effect was not replicated in the second survey.

Explaining Contextual Effects on Vote Choice

Abstract: How are individual voters influenced by their social surroundings? Though numerous studies establish that voting behavior can be influenced by the social context, we lack a full understanding of how the actions of individual voters can be influenced by the composition of their social environment. In this paper, I develop and test a micro-level model of the operation of contextual influences on political behavior. The model specifies the effects of both personal contact and individual perception of the partisan nature of the local environment. The data show little support for personal contact as a mechanism of contextual influence, but reveal that perception of partisan dominance markedly enhances the impact of partisan identification on vote choice.

Theories of Political Literacy

Abstract: This paper tests cognitive mobilization, structural role, and traditional socialization agent theories of political literacy, conceptualized as the potential for informed political participation. Political literacy cannot be measured directly, but we presume that if people are politically literate, they understand party differences and know basic political concepts and facts. Other names for this concept include political expertise, political awareness, and civic competence. Using Jennings and Niemi's youth-parent panel socialization data, we conclude that cognitive mobilization has the largest effect on political literacy, followed fairly closely by structural roles. Socialization agents have a very minor effect. This conclusion partly supports prevailing cognitive mobilization explanations of this concept. However, self-selection causes much of the relationship between political literacy and education, making education's cognitive mobilization potential far smaller than most political scientists assumed. Political involvement and ability are the main sources of cognitive mobilization instead, and education's spurious cross-sectional effect primarily reflects structural roles.

Economics and the vulnerability of the pan-european institutions

Abstract: Because of the dramatic political changes that have occurred over the past decade there is significant interest in understanding the dynamics of citizen support for nascent democratic institutions The success of the new de- mocracies of the former communist regimes is a case in point And in West- ern Europe, of course, there is considerable interest in understanding the dynamics of popular support for the rapidly changing institutions of the Euro- pean Union One of the common themes found in these studies is the impor- tance of economic factors in shaping mass support for these new institutions Duch (1995) has argued that in the context of new postcommunist regimes this relationship is often exaggerated and to some extent misspecified We raise a similar concern with respect to the institutions of the European Union We do not deny that economic considerations shape mass attitudes regarding the European Union Rather we argue for a more careful specifica- tion of how economic outcomes are shaped by the European Union and hence how self-interested citizens are likely to incorporate economic out- comes into their evaluation of European integration We make four arguments in this essay First, we argue that models of the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and political preferences, in this case support for the European Union, must be based on a credible asso- ciation between the institution or political office and these economic out- comes Because the European Union is, as yet, not responsible for macro- economic policies, we should not expect evaluations of these institutions to be shaped by policy outcomes in this area Second, to the extent that economic factors do shape citizens' attitudes toward the European Union, it will be in terms of comparative advantage Those best situated to reap benefits from the European Union will be more supportive than those who are less likely to

CONVERSATIONS IN CONTEXT: The (Mis)Measurement of Value Change in Advanced Industrial Societies

Abstract: One aspect of the multifaceted controversy on value change in advanced industrial societies concerns the measurement of values. Analyses of 1976–86 Euro-Barometer data have indicated that responses to the four-item “materialist-postmaterialist” values index are very sensitive to current economic conditions, especially inflation and unemployment rates and, hence, much of the recorded increase in postmaterialism in eight Western European countries since the mid-1970s is artifactual. Although it has been claimed these findings disappear if more recent data are considered, time series analyses reveal that responses to the values measure are strongly affected by prevailing economic conditions throughout the entire 1976–92 period. These aggregate-level findings are buttressed by individual-level analyses of 1989 Euro-Barometer data.

Incumbent Vulnerability and Challenger Emergence in Senate Elections

Abstract: We examine challenger emergence in Senate elections by looking at the 1992 campaign in depth. We develop unproved measures of incumbent: vulnerability using data from the 1988 and 1990 NES Senate Election Studies. These measures are used to test the hypothesis that higher-quality challengers are more likely to challenge vulnerable incumbents. We find generally weak relationships between our incumbent vulnerability measures and challenger quality. Instead, challenger quality scores increase with the size of the pool of potential high-quality challengers.

Value Priorities, Partisanship and Electoral Choice: The Neglected Case of the United States

Abstract: A wealth of comparative scholarship indicates that a transformation in the value priorities of Western publics has been occurring during the last quarter century, and that value-based cleavages are increasingly coming to structure Western political behavior. The United States, however, has been conspicuous by its relative absence from this research enterprise. This paper attempts to partially fill this void in the literature by examining the impact of materialist-postmaterialist value priorities on American political behavior. Using data from the 1972 through 1992 American National Election Studies, we first compare the impact of the value-based cleavage on partisanship and presidential vote choice to that of other relevant sociodemographic variables. These analyses show that the effect of postmaterialism on American political behavior is not negligible. When the parties take distinct stances on postmaterial concerns, value type exerts a noticeable, though not overwhelming, influence on partisanship and vote choice. Further analyses show that the effect of value priorities on electoral behavior is mainly indirect, as they significantly shape attitudes on defense and racial issues, which in turn influence vote choice. Surprisingly, however, value type is not related to attitudes on cultural issues such as abortion and homosexual rights. Thus, although postmaterialism does have some relevance for American political attitudes and behavior, it does not seem to be pertinent to the cultural conflicts that are increasingly salient to American political life.

The effects of campaign participation on political attitudes

Abstract: Participatory democratic theorists have long claimed that political participation improves citizens and helps to integrate them into the political community. In recent years political participation has been advocated as a way of reducing alienation, particularly among the young. This experimental study assesses the effects of campaign participation on the attitudes and opinions of a group of young people, particularly attitudes of alienation. Employing Q methodology, this study examines the attitudinal impact of campaign participation on 57 subjects through the use of precampaign and postcampaign Q sorts. By comparing the results with a control group it was determined that campaign participation does result in greater attitudinal shift for participants than for nonparticipants; however, the changes that occurred resulted in shifts away from alienation (as democratic theorists predict) and shifts in the direction of greater alienation (contrary to predictions).

Research in Context: Measuring Value Change

Abstract: Abramson and Inglehart find a significant trend toward postmaterialist values in Western Europe, which they argue is largely driven by the gradual processes of generational replacement. Clarke, Dutt, and Rapkin argue that this trend is a methodological artifact of the wording of Inglehart's four-item measure of materialist/ postmaterialist values. They claim that because this battery does not include a question about unemployment, in periods of high unemployment respondents tend to choose postmaterialist goals. The long-term trend toward postmaterialism in Western Europe, they argue, results from rising levels of unemployment during the past two decades. Abramson and Inglehart point out that increases in inflation have a short-term impact on decreasing postmaterialism, but maintain that the positive relationship between unemployment and postmaterialism is spurious. As this analysis shows, Clarke, Dutt, and Rapkin find a positive relationship between unemployment and postmaterialism by building a model that has little theoretical justification and that is not robust to changes in specification. As this analysis demonstrates, unemployment is actually linked with support for materialist goals, and the trend toward post-materialism is robust in the face of alternative time frames, models, and specifications. The weight of the evidence demonstrates that the long-term trend toward postmaterialism in Western Europe is driven by generational replacement.

Forecasts and Preferences in the 1992 General Election

Abstract: Little attention has been paid to the influence of expectations for victory on the formation of general election preferences in U.S. presidential races. There is good reason to believe, however, that under certain conditions citizens' forecasts of who will win the fall election may influence their preference and their vote. We model preferences during the course of the fall 1992 campaign as a function of two kinds of expectations. First we attempt to identify a component of expectations that is independent of political projection. We discover that expectations based only on information about the race play a prominent role in preference formation early in the fall but decline later as the cost of information drops. Similar results obtain when we include projection in the model of expectations. We conclude that general elections may have some of the same dynamic properties that are observable in primaries. Since early momentum in the fall campaign may influence subsequent preference formation, we contend that leads in early polls are valuable.

Candidate Character vs. The Economy in the 1992 Election

Abstract: The outcome of the 1992 U.S. presidential election has been explained largely as a function of perceptions of George Bush's economic performance. The economy submerged questions about Bill Clinton's character, awarding the advantage to the Democrat. In this article, we evaluate the effect of economic evaluations along with character attacks on candidate support in the 1992 presidential contest. Claims that the economy submerged character have been somewhat exaggerated. But while character remains an important issue in presidential evaluation, its role in judging candidates cannot be taken at face value. We show that both economic evaluations and character judgments are highly politicized. The findings indicate that those protesting Clinton's character turned almost exclusively to Bush. Those protesting Bush's economic record turned to both Perot and Clinton. Still, the economy did not “trump” character. The troubles of both major party candidates fueled a strong protest vote that contributed to Perot's strong showing.

The Public Nature of Personal Opinion: The Impact of Collective Sentiment on Individual Appraisal

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the public on individual opinion. Employing survey-based experiments, I demonstrate public influence to be considerable, yet the magnitude, direction, and significance of effect depends critically on the target of public sentiment and the political predispositions of the perceiver. A theoretical model is developed to delineate and examine such effects, guiding the analyses throughout. Central to this framework is the interplay between opinion context and individual, reflecting the often fluid and complex relationship between aggregate and individual judgment. The specific findings that representations of public opinion can alter the distribution of opinion through assimilation, contrast, or reinforcement are emphasized and given context within the voting and public opinion literature.

The Structure and Dynamics of Group Politics: 1964–1992

Abstract: In the realm of politics the relevance of groups derives from their centrality to government institutions, the policy process, and election campaigns. In addition, individuals have a predisposition to rely on cues and shortcuts when making choices and forming preferences; groups are ideal for this purpose. Groups help orient individuals to their social world by providing standards, supplying information, and defining friend and foe. If groups are central to politics and political cognition then we should find an underlying political structure within which group attitudes can be organized, and through which other political attitudes, coalitions, and behaviors can be viewed. In our analysis we apply Rabinowitz (1976) Line of Sight method for ordering object pairs consistent with the Euclidean spatial model to the complete series of group thermometer ratings from the NES Presidential Election Studies, 1964 through 1992. The resulting eight group by group matrices are subjected to a series of multidimensional scaling models to determine the underlying structure of the group spatial distances. Our findings suggest that orientations toward groups can be satisfactorily mapped into a two-dimensional space defined by partisan and affective axes. Over this 30-year period we find that attitudes toward groups have become more emotional and less partisan in nature. Interpretation of the group space is further aided by the use of ideal-point regressions that make it possible to place voters, members of the New Deal coalition, and issue publics in the space defined by group attitudes.

NAMING NAMES IN A MIDWESTERN TOWN The Salience of Democratic Presidential Hopefuls in Early 1992

Abstract: The name diffusion of candidates seeking the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination as a function of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary is investigated in a survey among panel participants from a midwestern community. Controlling for political interest and media dependency predispositions, the comparative influence of media exposure and interpersonal discussion is demonstrated. In general, interpersonal communication influences are found to be dependent on media coverage dynamics, either complementing media effects when they are strong or substituting for media effects when they are nonexistent. The consequences for the party nomination “momentum” model, especially in regard to candidate viability, are discussed.

The Economics of Politics in Comparative Perspective Revisited: An Introduction

Abstract: Students of political behavior have long been interested in whether and how economics structures politics Over the past two and a half decades, much effort has been devoted to investigating the influence of the economy on voting behavior, election outcomes, and government support in democratic polities A special issue of Political Behavior explicitly addressed these issues some thirteen years ago Since the publication of that special issue, however, a number of important developments have occurred Clearly, we have learned a great deal about the influence of the economy on elections We have been able to establish that there are powerful effects of economic conditions and perceptions at various levels of analysis (see Nannestad and Paldam, 1994, for an overview) Increasingly, attention has centered on identifying how the economy influences vote choice; that is, research has focused on which of voters' many economic perceptions are most important (see especially Lewis-Beck, 1988) The cumulative body of empirical work now supports a sociotropic electorate that votes on the basis of the state of the national economy The bulk of this work finds that voters evaluate past performance, although some recent research also suggests that voters are "prospective," basing their political judgments on expectations of future economic performance (Lewis-Beck, 1988) Regardless of the exact nature of the effects, it is now fairly clear that vote choice and election outcomes are driven by the direction and magnitude of economic change, whether retrospective or prospective in nature Scholarly interest in the relationship between the economy and politics

(Mis)Measuring Value Change: A brief postscript

Abstract: In their rejoinder to our critique, Abramson, Ellis, and Inglehart claim that the four-item Euro-Barometer battery provides a valid measure of the value orientations citizens in advanced industrial societies We are not persuaded Our analyses indicate that the battery is seriously flawed, and that the dynamics of response to it over the past two decades provide a classic illustration of what we have termed the "conversations in context" problem in survey research There is no need to reiterate the details of our argument and supporting empirical evidence here Rather, we will confine our attention to three larger methodological and theoretical points that may suggest a way forward for those interested in comparative studies of the nature and dynamics of values and related aspects of public political psychology Point 1 concerns how the structure and content of a survey instrument can interact with the changing context in which the instrument is administered We have argued that sharp variations in macroeconomic conditions since the mid-1970s have done much to produce the over-time pattern in responses to the Euro-Barometer surveys that prompt Inglehart and his associates to conclude that these data support the materialist to postmaterialist value shift thesis However, the point is much more general than the present controversy; at issue is the larger question of how social scientists measure the dynamics of political beliefs, attitudes, and opinions, and how they interpret