Showing papers in "Political Research Quarterly in 2002"
TL;DR: This paper examined the impact of constitutional provisions for six individual freedoms and four due process rights on state abuse of the right to personal integrity and found statistical evidence that some constitutional provisions do matter, even when controlling for democracy and other factors known to influence human rights behavior.
Abstract: This global cross-national study seeks to build upon earlier studies that have tested the impact of constitutional provisions upon state human rights behavior. I examine across a twenty-year period the impact of constitutional provisions for six individual freedoms and four due process rights on state abuse of the right to personal integrity Here I find statistical evidence that some constitutional provisions do matter, even when controlling for democracy and for other factors known to influence human rights behavior. While none of the constitutional provisions for individual freedoms is statistically significant, two of the due process provisions (provisions for fair and public trials) do decrease substantially the likelihood that states will abuse their own citizens' human rights. The other two due process provisions, which have become almost universal, the ban against torture, and the writ of habeas corpus, are quite disappointing in that they do not produce the expected impact. Over the long term, the...
161 citations
TL;DR: This paper investigated the interaction of exposure to stereotype reinforcing local crime news and neighborhood racial context on attitudes about race and crime and found that white respondents living in white homogeneous neighborhoods endorsed more punitive policies to address crime.
Abstract: In this article, we investigate the interaction of exposure to stereotype reinforcing local crime news and neighborhood racial context on atti- tudes about race and crime. To date, there has been little research inves- tigating whether neighborhood context mitigates or exacerbates the impact of exposure to racially stereotypic crime news. Based on theories of schema formation and change, we predict that residential proximity should condition more complex, multidimensional views of blacks, such that whites from those areas would be less negatively influenced by black criminal stereotypes on the news. We collected information about the neighborhood racial context for each respondent in an experiment. We then exposed respondents either to racially stereotypic or non-stereotypic crime stories on local news programs. Results support our central hypothesis. When exposed to racial stereotypes in the news, white respondents living in white homogeneous neighborhoods endorsed more punitive policies to address crime...
155 citations
TL;DR: The authors examined partisan polarization on several culture war issues, including pornography, environment, gun control, and gay civil rights, and found evidence of partisan polarization among political elites and citizens, as well as examine top-down versus bottom-up paths of influence among Republicans and Democrats.
Abstract: Using the issue evolution framework, our research examines partisan polarization on several culture war issues, including pornography, environment, gun control, and gay civil rights We look for evidence of partisan polarization among political elites and citizens, as well as examine top-down versus bottom-up paths of influence among Republicans and Democrats Data from the General Social Survey and congressional rollcall votes between 1970-1999 are analyzed Our results suggest that although partisan elites have become increasingly polarized on culture war issues, mass partisans have not followed suit across all issues Only on environmental and gun control issues do we find significant evidence of issue evolution, including a linkage between elite and mass opinion We conclude that culture war issues may not be as prone to issue evolution as previous research has indicated, in part because these issues are not all equally salient to the mass public
132 citations
TL;DR: The authors study the conditions that motivate candidates to employ negative campaign tactics and find that candidates' decisions to go negative are a function of changes to the campaign environment, the dynamic interplay that develops between candidates over the course of campaigns, and attributes of issues on the campaign agenda.
Abstract: The research examining negative campaigning has focused largely on the effects that exposure to negative advertising has on voters' decisionmaking. Less attention has been given to studying the conditions that motivate candidates to employ negative campaign tactics. I attempt to move our understanding of this process forward by unifying hypotheses suggested in the literature into a more cohesive theoretical framework and testing them against data collected from all available campaign advertisements produced by major party presidential candidates competing in the 1976-1996 general elections. The results of the logit analysis indicate that candidates' decisions to go negative are a function of changes to the campaign environment, the dynamic interplay that develops between candidates over the course of campaigns, and attributes of issues on the campaign agenda.
132 citations
TL;DR: The findings suggest that disability, apart from imposing resource constraints, often has social and psychological effects that decrease voter turnout through decreased social capital and identification with mainstream society, particularly among senior citizens.
Abstract: How likely are the millions of Americans with disabilities to participate in politics? What insights do their experiences provide into overall participation levels and determinants? This article reports the results of a nationally representative household telephone survey of 1,240 peoplestratified to include 700 people with disabilities-following the November 1998 elections. Voter turnout is found to be 20 percentage points lower among people with disabilities than among people without disabilities who have otherwise-similar demographic characteristics. Other standard predictors of turnout such as political efficacy and mobilization explain only a small portion of this gap. There is great variation within the disability sample: the lower turnout is concentrated among people with disabilities who are not employed or who are age 65 or older, who have had recent onset of a disabling condition, and who have difficulty going outside alone (despite the availability of absentee ballots). The findings suggest tha...
112 citations
TL;DR: In recent years, a fundamental basis of union strength, membership desity, has diverged dramatically across Europe as discussed by the authors, while most countries have witnessed stagnation or decline in unionization rates.
Abstract: In recent years, a fundamental basis of union strength, membership desity, has diverged dramatically across Europe. While most countries have witnessed stagnation or decline in unionization rates, ...
91 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an attributional model of economic voting was proposed to analyze the 2000 U.S. presidential election and found that the incumbent party's can- didate did benefit from the belief that economic conditions had improved, but only among voters who attributed responsibility for that improvement to the president.
Abstract: In this article we propose and test an attributional model of economic voting. Exploiting an innovative responsibility instrument to analyze the 2000 U.S. presidential election, we find that the incumbent party's can- didate did benefit from the belief that economic conditions had improved, but only among voters who attributed responsibility for that improvement to the president. Moreover, we find that by explicitly mod- eling the effects of responsibility attributions instead of presuming a homogeneous and automatic sanctioning process, the attributional model outperforms the classical reward-punishment model in explaining presidential vote choice. Our results provide new insights into the out- come of the 2000 presidential election and demonstrate the relative importance of issues and the economy.
87 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an interpretive content analysis of fourteen research methods texts is presented, exploring their structural and rhetorical features to address two questions: 1) to explore their structural features and 2) to address their rhetorical features.
Abstract: This article reports on an interpretive content analysis of fourteen research methods texts. We read them as a genre—exploring their structural and rhetorical features—to address two questions: To ...
80 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the relationship between membership in voluntary associations and political tolerance attitudes, and found that membership in a voluntary association is associated with political tolerance, but not with economic well-being.
Abstract: This article examines the relationship between membership in voluntary associations and political tolerance attitudes. Though the extensive literature on social capital posits a relationship betwee...
76 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the question of why some judicial candidates are subjected to lengthy delays, while others move through the Senate confirmation process in a matter of days, and explore the impact of div...
Abstract: Legislators have long recognized that delaying tactics are powerful tools for preventing the passage of laws they deem unsatisfactory. Because the U.S. Congress has several deadlines built into its session, when committee chairmen or individual members delay the scheduling of hearings, markups, or executive business meetings, it can have a devastating effect on pending legislation. The tactic of delay is now being used by the Senate Judiciary Committee and individual senators to stall confirmation of the President's judicial nominations. Since 1996, the average length of time between an individuals nomination to serve as a federal judge and the time that he or she is confirmed has increased dramatically At the same time, some nominations still proceed very quickly through the confirmation process. This article explores the question of why some nominees are subjected to lengthy delays, while others move through the Senate confirmation process in a matter of days. Specifically, it explores the impact of div...
74 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the decisions of the Department of Justice appellate sections and the Office of the Solicitor General to appeal unfavorable U.S. court of appeals decisions to which the federal government is a party during 1993 and 1994.
Abstract: I examine the decisions of the Department of Justice appellate sections and the Office of the Solicitor General to appeal unfavorable U.S. court of appeals decisions to which the federal government is a party during 1993 and 1994. I hypothesize that factors relating to the cost, reviewability and likelihood of victory in the appeal will be influential in the government's decision, and that the influence of each of these types of factors will vary depending upon the actor making the decision. Multivariate analysis supports these hypotheses, indicating that those factors which have been shown to influence both the Court's decision to grant certiorari and its decisions on the merits also operate in the government's decision to bring an appeal. Overall, my research suggests that the case selection process has a substantial influence on the success of the United States in the federal appellate courts.
TL;DR: The authors examine the nature of legislative support for direct democracy by surveying legislators and legislative can-didates in Canada, New Zealand and the United States and find that support is conditioned by factors internal to the legislative setting (affiliation with a governing party, incumbency, and tenure) and by ideology and subjective attitudes about democracy.
Abstract: Legislators typically control the design of political institutions, and can be expected to craft rules that work to their advantage. In some nations, however, legislators adopt provisions for direct democracy-an institu- tion that might weaken the control that established parties and incum- bents have over political agendas. We examine the nature of legislative support for direct democracy by surveying legislators and legislative can- didates in Canada, New Zealand and the United States. We find that sup- port is conditioned by factors internal to the legislative setting (affiliation with a governing party, incumbency, and tenure) and by ideology and subjective attitudes about democracy We discuss how our findings relate to broader questions about when elites might change democratic institu- tions they control.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on city officials' actions when morality issues (gay rights, pornography regulations, etc.) are at stake and find that cases drawn from a systematic sample of cities reveal a continuum of l...
Abstract: This article focuses on city officials' actions when morality issues (gay rights, pornography regulations, etc.) are at stake. Cases drawn from a systematic sample of cities reveal a continuum of l...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the amount of negative campaigning in the 1998 US Senate primary election and the ramifications of negative campaigns on primary turnout and general election outcomes, and find that negative campaigning had a large impact on primary voter turnout and election outcomes.
Abstract: We investigate the amount of negative campaigning in the 1998 senato- rial primaries and the ramifications of negative campaigning on primary turnout and general election outcomes. A large literatu...
TL;DR: For example, this article developed general models of presidential approval ratings, seeking to determine the structure of aggregate approval, and developed a model of the average of the ratings of each presidential candidate.
Abstract: Over the past three decades, political scientists have been developing general models of presidential approval ratings, seeking to determine the structure of aggregate approval. This endeavor has c...
TL;DR: Based on data from 18 Central and East European countries collected between 1991 and 1996, the authors test informational assumptions underlying strategic interaction and collective action models, and find that the assumptions are applicable to all the scenarios.
Abstract: Based on data from 18 Central and East European countries collected between 1991 and 1996, this article tests informational assumptions underlying strategic interaction and collective action models...
TL;DR: This article examined the role of gubernatorial and U.S. Senate campaigns in mobilizing voters in the 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996 elections and found that statewide campaigns are especially important for activating citizens in midterms.
Abstract: This article examines the role of gubernatorial and U.S. Senate campaigns in mobilizing voters in the 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996 elections. Merging contextual measures on these campaigns with data from the Voter Supplement Files of the November Current Population Surveys, I find that statewide campaigns are especially important for activating citizens in midterms. An off-year campaign environment that is associated with hotly-contested, high-spending campaigns elevates citizens' turnout probabilities by double-digit points. However, a presidential race provides an overriding stimulus that gets to the polls most of those citizens who can be activated, as state-level races demonstrate negligible mobilizing influence in the on-years. I also find that previous looks into the influence of campaign context on individual turnout are based on “biased” tests of statistical significance. Failure to take into account state “clusters” in national samples results in downwardly biased standard errors and, consequently,...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors test theories about the distinctiveness of Hispanic voting participation using validated voting data, which are necessary to assess Hispanic turnout relative to the turn out of white voters.
Abstract: This study is the first to test theories about the distinctiveness of Hispanic voting participation using validated voting data, which are necessary to assess Hispanic turnout relative to the turno...
TL;DR: This article analyzed data from the 2000 Study of Canadian Political Party Members to address the question of why individuals join political parties in Canada and to trace their paths to activism, finding that the members' ideological or policy-related commitment to the party was by far the most important motivation for joining.
Abstract: This article analyses data from the 2000 Study of Canadian Political Party Members to address the question of why individuals join political parties in Canada and to trace their paths to activism. Because Canadian parties are essentially brokerage parties charactensed by ideological flexibility and limited substantive roles for their members, membership in a party islikely to be motivated less by ideological concerns than by membership in a social network mobilised in support of a particular individual. As a consequence, most accounts assume that individuals are mobilised into party membership by family, friends, and neighbors in order to support candidates for the leadership or local nomination. In contrast to this expectation, we find that for all five major Canadian political parties, it is the members' ideological or policy-related commitment to the party that is by far the most important motivation for joining. Although parties do, to varying degrees, rely on social networks for recruitment into part...
TL;DR: This paper examined the extent to which evangelical influences on moral conservatism and economic conservatism are similar in the United States and Canada and employed regression models with slope dummy variables on data collected from comparable telephone surveys conducted in the two countries in 1996.
Abstract: One of the most prominent ideas subsumed within the "American exceptionalism" literature is that evangelical Protestantism has always had an unusually powerful influence on U.S. political culture. In contrast, more recent literature points to the transnational influence of social movements, including those based in evangelicalism and other religious traditions. We examine the extent to which evangelical influences on moral conservatism and economic conservatism are similar in the United States and Canada. We employ regression models with slope dummy variables on data collected from comparable telephone surveys conducted in the two countries in 1996. Evangelical Protestantism's influence on moral conservatism and value priorities is transnational, but its influence on economic conservatism is distinctively American. Compositional analysis shows this pattern is largely shaped by the greater influence of self-identified fundamentalists among evangelical Protestants in the United States. One of the most prominent ideas subsumed within "American exceptionalism" is that evangelical Protestantism has always had an unusually (perhaps even uniquely) powerful influence on U.S. political culture. This is a commonplace assumption in comparative political study, dating at least to Alexis de Tocqueville's Democracy in America. Even by comparison to Canada, argues Seymour Martin Lipset (1990, 1996), a leading advocate of American exceptionalism, the United States has been and continues to be distinctive. Lipset's argument is that, from the colonial days to the present, a particular set of values and ideological emphases have distinguished Americans, and these values in turn help explain why U.S. political behavior and institutions are distinctive. Among these ideological tendencies, two are said especially to implicate evangelical Protestants: (1) traditionalist moralism that fuels recurring crusades for social reform, and (2) meritocratic individualism that supports the spirit of capitalism, anti-statist attitudes, and a bourgeois economy. Evangelicalism in the United States is seen as exceptional because it has had exceptional success injecting this ideology-a combination of social and economic conservatism-into the main arteries of the nation's political culture. Yet Lipset does not directly address whether U.S. evangelicalism is distinctive, either in the muscle it has flexed promoting this ideological package or for its content. Is it possible that one or both of these two right-wing ideological tendencies is not shared by coreligionists abroad? Lipset's failure to examine closely the politics of evangelicals outside the United States is reflective of most of the literature in this area, the vast majority of which is confined to U.S. borders. The extant literature does not clearly establish if evangelical Protestantism has a common political effect across borders, or if it has diverse effects. This article explores the extent of transnational similarity (an evangelical transnationalism hypothesis) or difference (an evangelical diversity hypothesis) in the effect of evangelical Protestant beliefs on political attitudes. Given the worldwide diffusion of evangelical Protestantism, a full comparative test would require a virtually global study Our analysis has more modest ambitions, focusing on a bilateral comparison of the United States with Canada. As Lipset's own arguments in defense of American exceptionalism attest (Lipset 1990), Canada has great value within the "most similar" strategy of comparative case selection. Canada's structural similarities and proximity to the United States make it an appropriately difficult hurdle for the American exceptionalism thesis to clear. We seek to determine the relationship between evangelical doctrine and policy preferences on a range of moral and economic issues. Employing data from the 1996 God and Society in North America survey conducted by the Angus Reid Group, we use OLS regression and the slope dummy approach to analyze both the direction of the relationship between evangelical religion and these political orientations, and the relative strength of the relationship across the U. …
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of the policy preferences of presidents compared to those of home state senators of each party on the decisions of judges on the United States Courts of Appeals from 1960-1993 was investigated.
Abstract: Previous studies are in agreement that most appointments to the lower federal courts are the result of negotiations between the President and senators or other elites from the nominees' home state There is also widespread agreement that the votes of lower court judges reflect, in part, the value preferences of the President who appointed them, and the state or region of their appointment However, less is known about the relative influence of the President, the home state senators, and other home state forces on the decisions of these judges The present study investigates these relative influences with an examination of the decisions of judges on the United States Courts of Appeals from 1960-1993 Using refined measures of the policy preferences of Presidents and senators, along with a new measure of the voting behavior of Judges on the United States Courts of Appeals, we provide an assessment of the impact of the policy preferences of Presidents, compared to those of home state senators of each party,
TL;DR: The authors applied the theory of competitive and substantive communication strategies to the presidential election and found that there are definite patterns of messaging choice relative to candidate status, and that competitive messages dominate the discourse of candidates relative to the news media to a far greater extent than anticipated.
Abstract: This article applies the theory of competitive (war) and substantive (marketing) communication strategies to the presidential nomination campaign, focusing primarily on the time period during which we expect the candidates to be most concerned with framing their campaigns-the invisible primary. We utilize candidate press releases to assess the accuracy of this theory and refine it. We then test the hypothesis that a candidate's strategic goals, which are generally defined by the candidate's competitive status relative to the field, determine the dominant type of message communicated during this penod. We find that there are definite patterns of messaging choice relative to candidate status. We also find that competitive messages dominate the “discourse” of candidates relative to the news media to a far greater extent than anticipated.
TL;DR: This paper explored the influence of candidate expenditures on gubernatorial election outcomes and found that out-party candidates are especially sensitive to spending limits, raising the normative concern that these limits insulate in-party candidate from competition.
Abstract: In this article, I explore the influence of candidate expenditures on gubernatorial election outcomes (a heretofore largely ignored topic). I find that spending by gubernatorial contestants dramatically influences the outcomes of these races, matching or even out-performing previously studied predictors of gubernatorial election outcomes. I then deal with two issues. First, I explore possible explanations of candidate expenditures in these contests and find that, among other things, out-party candidates are especially sensitive to spending limits, raising the normative concern that these limits insulate in-party candidates from competition. Second, I explore the possible endogeneity of candidate spending using a two-stage least squares, instrumental variables model. I find that once we account for this endogeneity, the relatively vulnerable position of out-\party candidates becomes more acute. These findings expand our understanding of governors' races to include spending effects and emphasize the importance of aggregate-level factors in these contests. According to Jesse Unruh, money is the "mother's milk of politics." Nowhere is this statement more true than in the electoral process. Money has the potential to dramatically condition the flow of information in campaigns, and clearly has the potential to influence election outcomes. Not surprisingly, then, students of electoral behavior have focused on the impact of spending in a variety of electoral contexts, particularly congressional elections (Glantz, Abramowitz, and Burkhart 1976; Jacobson 1976, 1978, 1980, 1987, 1990; Copeland and Patterson 1978; Silberman 1978; Abramowitz and Segal 1986; Abramowitz 1988; Green and Krasno 1988; Thomas 1989; Green and Krasno 1990; Abramowitz 1991; Kenny and McBurnett 1992; Kenny and McBurnett 1994; Krasno, Green, and Cowden 1994; Epstein and Zemsky 1995; Box-Steffensmeier 1996; Gerber 1998), but also state legislative contests (Breaux and Gierzynski 1991; Gierzynski and Breaux 1991; Hogan 1997; Thompson and Moncrief 1998; Hogan 1999), and statewide initiatives and referenda (Owens and Wade 1986; Hadwiger 1992; Bowler and Donovan 1998). Virtually overlooked in these studies of money in various electoral arenas are elections for state governor.1 This oversight is unfortunate for a variety of reasons. To begin, given the importance attributed to campaign resources by politicians, pundits, as well as political scientists, one would hope that our scholarly assessment of this "mother's milk" comes from as broad an understanding of American elections as possible.2 For those scholars interested more specifically in gubernatorial elections, past inattention to campaign expenditures may amount to a serious mis-specification of previous models of election outcomes in these races. Elections for public office are, as pointed out by Key (1966), interactions between the public and potential elected officials. Nevertheless, for the most part, studies of gubernatorial elections have focused primarily on the behavior of voters in these races, to the exclusion of candidate actions and behavior (Turett 1971; Piereson 1975; Bibby 1983; Cohen 1983; Eismeier 1983; Kenney 1983; Kenney and Rice 1984; Peltzman 1987; Chubb 1988; Tompkins 1988; Simon 1989; Stein 1990; Simon, Ostrom, and Marra 1991; Kone and Winters 1993; Atkeson and Partin 1995; Leyden and Borrelli 1995; Partin 1995; Svoboda 1995; Atkeson and Partin 1998; Carsey and Wright 1998; Lowry, Alt, and Ferree 1998).3 While much work certainly remains to be done in understanding individual-level voting behavior in gubernatorial races, a largely unfilled field of inquiry deals with the actions and activity of candidates in these contests. In comparison with the congressional elections literature, for example, we have little understanding of strategic considerations by gubernatorial candidates (Jacobson and Kernell 1981; Bianco 1984; Born 1986; Wilcox 1987; Krasno and Green 1988; Fowler and McClure 1989; Jacobson 1989; Squire 1991; Kazee 1994; Krasno 1994; Lublin 1994; Epstein and Zemsky 1995; McCurley and Mondak 1995; Box-Steffensmeier 1996; Adams and Squire 1997). …
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the relationship between the value of a representative's committee seats and his or her loyalty in voting with party leaders in the immediate past, and further investigated whether the reelection costs of voting with the party leaders-and against constituents-matters, compared to the importance of committee seats.
Abstract: This article empirically investigates the relationship between the value of a representative's committee seats and his or her loyalty in voting with party leaders in the immediate past. We further investigate whether the reelection costs of voting with party leaders-and against constituentsmatters, compared to the value of committee seats. We first construct proxies for loyalty in voting, the re-election costs of party loyalty, and the value of members' committee assignments. We then estimate both continuous and discrete dependent variable models, controlling for leadership and tenure. Our results are twofold. First, we find a strong and positive relationship between loyalty and value of committee assignments. Second, we find a weaker, though still positive relationship between our measure of the electoral costs of loyalty and value of committee assignments. These results imply that there is some degree of signaling and/or exchange between party leaders and the rank-and-file membership to allocate parliam...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used regression with panel corrected standard errors to show that, while efficiency is always very important, the IRS shifts audits between the wealthy and the less affluent in response to the prevailing median ideology of the relevant federal court of appeals.
Abstract: While there have been numerous studies demonstrating bureaucratic control of administrative and regulatory agencies, many argue that the Internal Revenue Service is an agency out of control, and one not subject to political constraints. However, some recent studies have shown that the IRS is subject to some political control in shifting policy between the often competing concerns of efficiency and fairness. We extend these studies to examine judicial control of the IRS. Examining cross sectional time series data from 1960 until 1988, we use regression with panel corrected standard errors to show that, while efficiency is always very important, the IRS shifts audits between the wealthy and the less affluent in response to the prevailing median ideology of the relevant federal court of appeals. As the median appeals court judge becomes more liberal, the IRS shifts its audits in that region in favor of equity by reducing the audits on the poor and increasing the audits of the more affluent. As the median app...
TL;DR: For instance, this article examined the voting behavior of Canadian Supreme Court Justices in non-unanimous post-Charter cases decided during the first five terms of the Lamer Court (1991-95).
Abstract: This article assesses whether the same attitudinal dimension that dominates judicial decision-making in the United States-liberalism/conservatism-is also prominent in the Canadian context. Specifically, the study examines the voting behavior of Canadian Supreme Court Justices in non-unanimous post-Charter cases decided during the first five terms of the Lamer Court (1991-95). After employing factor analysis, which disclosed three principal dimensions underlying the voting behavior of the justices, we closely examined the cases scoring most positively and most negatively on each of the factors. The principal dimensions underlying the Charter rulings suggest three prominent attitudinal conflicts dominate this Court period: communitarianism versus libertarianism, fair trial and criminal due process disputes, and judicial activism versus judicial self-restraint. These dimensions corroborate the findings of studies that have tracked the development of the Canadian Court in post-- Charter years. Few relationships have been as frequently investigated or reported at greater length in the empirical study of public law than that between political attitudes and judges' decisions. Scholars of judicial behavior have built an entire field of the political science discipline on the thoroughly familiar premises gleaned from the writings of Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. (1881, 1897) and other rule skeptics (Fisher, Horowitz, and Reed 1993). The central premise of this body of literature is that rules contained in precedents simply provide cover for the justices' own attitudes and values (Holmes 1897; Frank 1930; Pritchett 1941; Schubert 1974, 1965; Segal and Spaeth 1993, Chap. 2; Epstein and Knight 1998: 25). In essence, the attitudinal model now dominates public law research in the United States. The attitudinal model so prominent in the literature today can trace its origins to the seminal research of Glendon Schubert (1974, 1965). Schubert's application of psychometric scaling techniques uncovered multiple attitudinal dimensions at work on the U.S. Supreme Court (Schubert 1974, 1965). This groundbreaking work on the U.S. court inspired him to conduct further research on judicial behavior in Switzerland, Australia, and South Africa (Schubert 1969a, 1969b, 1977, 1980). Other researchers who followed in his footsteps also found that attitudinal conflicts were at the crux of the decision making process of courts throughout the world, including the Philippines (Samonte 1969; Flango and Schubert 1969; Tate 1995); Italy (DiFrederico and Guarnieir 1988); Japan (Dator 1969; Kawashima 1969; Danelski 1969); Australia (Blackshield 1972; Galligan and Slater 1995; Power 1995); and Canada (Fouts 1969; Peck 1967a, 1967b, 1969; Tate and Sittiwong 1989; Morton, Russell, and Withey 1991; Russell 1995; Epp 1996; Wetstein and Ostberg 1999). These studies confirm that the political nature of judicial decision-making is not endemic to any one culture. Although research has shown that attitudes and values clearly influence the decisionmaking process in a variety of national high courts, the question remains whether the voting patterns that demonstrate attitudinal conflict are structured in a similar fashion across those courts. In the Canadian context, Fouts found in the 1950s and 1960s that the "decisional philosophy" of the Canadian justices was "strikingly similar to that espoused in the U.S. Court a generation earlier" (Fouts 1969: 284). He and Sidney Peck (1969) found the same liberal-conservative ideological conflicts in the U.S. were at work in Canada as well. The methodology used by these scholars presumed that the cases they analyzed could be analyzed using the same liberal-conservative continua on civil liberties, economics, and criminal cases that Schubert and others had used in studying the United States Supreme Court. Our study begins from a different premise. We start from the assumption that there might be different attitudinal issues at work in the minds of Canadian judges than simply liberalism-conservatism. …
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors apply a Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) statistical modeling approach to analyze constant dollar-branch expenditure data for the 1939-1997 period, finding that an "opportunistic" Presidency prevails in the short run; in the long run, a steadystate equilibrium exists, whereby the Presidency cannot permanently exploit Congress.
Abstract: A central feature of the modern presidential and congressional branches has been its institutional development. Growth in the presidential and legislative branches reflect distinct short-run and long-run dynamics. In the former case, Presidents exhibit greater responsiveness to congressional branch efforts than vice versa. However, in the long run a steadystate equilibrium exists, whereby the Presidency cannot permanently exploit Congress. This proposition is empirically tested by applying a Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) statistical modeling approach to analyze constant dollar-branch expenditure data for the 1939-1997 period. The empirical evidence shows that an "opportunistic Presidency" prevails in the short run; in the long run; however, considerable evidence is obtained in favor of an institutional equilibrium consistent with the "iron law of emulation" thesis. On a more general theoretical level, these findings make the novel point that a critical distinction must be made between short-run and long-run dynamics when assessing institutional relationships involving the Presidency and Congress. Understanding the institutional development of the Presidency and Congress is critical to understanding both the power and effectiveness of these branches. Several studies examine this process in relation to the rise in staff and support agencies used to facilitate administration for these governmental branches (Burke 1992; Fiorina 1989; Fox and Hammond 1977; Hart 1995; Malbin 1980; Ragsdale and Theis 1997; Rourke 1987; Sundquist 1981). Considerable research has focused its attention on this particular dimension of the institutionalization process via branch resources.1 Although this particular item does not serve as a perfect, complete measure of institutional development, it clearly captures an important dimension of this process. Branch resources yield information, expertise, and staff support that enable these institutions to influence bureaucratic behavior better by reducing information asymmetries enjoyed by the latter (Wilson 1989: 259); assisting in legislative construction and policy decisionmaking (e.g., Cronin 1980; Hart 1995); and creating autonomy from other branches of government (Fox and Hammond 1977; Ragsdale and Theis 1997; Sundquist 1981: 407-08).2 Scholars studying both Congress and the Presidency note the importance associated with branch resources. Resource enhancements to a particular branch of government can augment institutional power. Terry Moe (1995: 424), for example, states that "Presidents cannot build a powerful institution with no money" Presidency research finds that professional expertise and institutional memory associated with branch resources produce a sense of rationality and continuity (e.g., Burke 1992: 53, 185; Heclo 1975), and also the means both to centralize and politicize the office (Burke 1992: 185; Moe 1985; Rourke 1987; Weko 1995). Congressional scholars contend that institutional resources enable legislators to acquire additional and independent sources of information, as well as increase the collective capacity of the institution (e.g., Dodd and Schott 1979; Fox and Hammond 1977; Malbin 1980).3 A systematic empirical investigation analyzing presidential and congressional branch expenditures can help us understand the process by which the institutional capabilities of chief executives and legislatures vary through time.4 Is this process due to the changing demands on a given institution that reflect a gradual evolving process from within that is generally thought to be independent of the institutional growth exhibited by competing branches of government (Burke 1992; Fiorina 1989; Fox and Hammond 1977; Malbin 1980; Polsby 1968; Ragsdale and Theis 1997)? For example, a President may seek institutional resources as a means of internally shifting policy priorities or the locus of policy decisionmaking from his predecessor. Does this process instead reflect an opportunistic President who is able permanently to exploit Congress through time (Cronin 1980; Hart 1995; Moe 1995; Rourke 1987; Schlesinger 1973; Sundquist 1981)? …
TL;DR: This paper explored the linkages between television news and the decline of partisanship in Latin America, using survey data for eight countries, and found that television news encourages party identification in the short run (through treatment effects), although the development of television may weaken Latin American parties in the long run through strategic effects.
Abstract: This article explores the linkages between television news and the decline of partisanship in Latin America, using survey data for eight countries. After discussing the erosion of traditional Latin American parties during the 1990s, I show that the literature has assumed different types of causal links between television and party dealignment (treatment vs. strategic effects, and cohort vs. short-term effects). Based on comparative research on industrial and new democracies, I present two contrasting hypotheses (television news inhibits partisanship; exposure to television creates political awareness) and test the impact of short-term treatment effects using a multinomial logit model. The results suggest that television news encourages party identification in the short run (through treatment effects), although the development of television may weaken Latin American parties in the long run (through strategic effects).
TL;DR: The authors used data from 1980 to 2000 to test hypotheses about challenger emergence, campaign finance laws, and candidate spending in gubernatorial party primaries and found that experienced challengers and those who accept public funding are better able to match levels of spending by incumbents.
Abstract: Compared to congressional elections, gubernatorial races are underrepresented in the campaign finance literature. At the same time, the great diversity of state campaign finance laws enables a comparative analysis of their impact in gubernatorial races. I use data from 1980 to 2000 to test hypotheses about challenger emergence, campaign finance laws, and candidate spending in gubernatorial party primaries. I find that incumbents with high job approval ratings and those in party endorsement states are more likely to be unopposed in the primary. In contested primaries, experienced challengers and those who accept public funding are better able to match levels of spending by incumbents. The findings shed light on the dynamics of challenger emergence and the potential for public funding programs to make elections more competitive.
TL;DR: In the case of the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial election, a multinomial probit model of vote choice and turnout was proposed by as discussed by the authors, which showed that voters who elected Jesse Ventura tended to be young, male, lower in education, liberal on social issues, and fiscally conservative.
Abstract: We estimate a multinomial probit model of vote choice and turnout to examine the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial election. Like supporters of recent third-party presidential candidates, voters who elected Jesse Ventura tended to be young, male, lower in education, liberal on social issues, and fiscally conservative. Ventura support was not due to a general dissatisfaction with U.S. government, but it was correlated with voter dissatisfaction with Minnesota state government. Ventura was the Condorcet winner in the election; Hubert H. Humphrey was the Condorcet loser. With Ventura out of the race, Norm Coleman would have beaten Humphrey by approximately ten percentage points. Coleman voters overwhelmingly preferred Ventura to Humphrey, but Humphrey voters preferred Ventura to Coleman by a slim margin. Ventura's candidacy added seven percentage points to the turnout rate. Under full turnout, the vote shares of the candidates would not have changed significantly Strong third-party candidacies are becoming commonplace in U.S. national elections, particularly at the presidential level. In four of the eight presidential elections between 1968 and 1996, a third-party candidate won at least 5 percent of the popular vote. No other thirty-year period in U.S. history has witnessed such third-party performance.1 Ross Perot's popular vote of close to 20 percent in 1992 was the highest ever recorded by a third party candidate who had no prior political experience, and his nearly 9 percent of the popular vote in 1996 was the highest recorded by a repeat third party candidate. In 2000 the impact of third-party candidates became even more significant: even though Ralph Nader polled barely 2 percent of the popular vote, his candidacy likely took enough potential Gore votes to give George W Bush an Electoral College victory. Third-party success at the presidential level pales in comparison to third-party success in recent gubernatorial elections. While the 1998 election of Jesse Ventura in Minnesota may seem unusual, three other third-party candidates won gubernatorial elections in the 1990s: Walter Hickel in Alaska (1990), Lowell Weicker in Connecticut (1990), and Angus S. King, Jr., in Maine (1994 and 1998). At the presidential level, only Ross Perot's short-lived lead in the polls during the summer of 1992 approaches the success of third-party candidates in gubernatorial elections. Third-party candidacies in gubernatorial elections are an understudied phenomenon in American electoral politics. The existing research on third-party candidates in US elections has focused on the presidential level (e.g. Abramson et al. 1995; Alvarez and Nagler 1995, 1998; Gold 1995; Herron 1998; Lacy and Burden 1999, 2000; Rosenstone, Behr, and Lazarus 1996) while recent thirdparty gubernatorial and congressional candidacies have received relatively little attention. Beiler (1999) and Frank and Wagner (1999) examine the candidacy of Jesse Ventura in the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial election. Reiter and Walch (1995) describe voter support for James Longley (elected Governor of Maine in 1974), Lowell Weicker, and Bernard Sanders (elected to the U.S. House from Vermont in 1990). Donovan, Bowler, and Terrio (2000) study voter support for minor-party candidates in the 1994 California gubernatorial and senatorial elections, and Magleby, Monson, and Walters (2000) examine support for Merrill Cook's 1994 independent run for Congress in Utah. However, none of these studies have examined the impact of the third-party candidates on the vote shares of the other candidates or on turnout. We examine Jesse Ventura's victory in the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial election in order to compare the electoral origins and impact of his support to that of third-party presidential candidates. Using recent advances in the study of voting with three or more candidates (Alvarez and Nagler 1995, 1998; Lacy and Burden 1999, 2001), we develop a unified multinomial probit model of vote choice and turnout to answer four questions central to the literature on thirdparty candidacies. …