Showing papers in "Population Research and Policy Review in 2003"
TL;DR: The most recent data from the Eurobarometer 2001 survey showed that in the German-speaking parts of Europe the average ideal family size given by younger men and women have fallen as low as 1.7 children as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Period fertility started to drop significantly below replacement in most Western European countries during the 1970s and 1980s, while most fertility surveys, value studies and opinion polls have found that the number of children considered ideal for society or for one's own family has remained above two children per woman. These surveys have led to the expectation that, sooner or later, period fertility would recover in Europe. The most recent data from the Eurobarometer 2001 survey, however, suggest that in the German-speaking parts of Europe the average ideal family sizes given by younger men and women have fallen as low as 1.7 children. This paper examines the consistency and the credibility of these new findings, which - if they are indeed indications of a new trend - may alter the current discussion about future fertility trends in Europe.
366 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a dramatic change in the association of fertility levels to women's levels of labor force participation has been found in 22 low-fertility countries using data for 1960-97 for 22 low fertility countries, and they argue that these transformed associations reflect societal level responses that, in some contexts, have eased the incompatibility between mother and worker roles, and loosened the link between marriage and childbearing.
Abstract: Using data for 1960–97 for 22 low fertility countries, we document a dramatic change in the association of fertility levels to women's levels of labor force participation. Until the 1980s, this association had been strongly negative. However, during the 1980s itbecame positive, and since 1990 strongly positive. We also document an emerging positive association of the country-level total fertility ratio (TFR) and nonmarital ratio (e.g., the proportion of births to unmarried women). We argue that these transformed associations reflect societal level responses that, in some contexts, have eased the incompatibility between mother and worker roles, and loosened the link betweenmarriage and childbearing. These arguments imply that societal responses to mother/worker incompatibility exert substantial influence on fertility levels in low fertility countries.
279 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the second-birth intensity increases as the combination of parenthood and labor-force attachment of either parent is facilitated, and the effect of family policies in Sweden and in the higher second birth intensity of couples who share family responsibilities as compared to those with traditional gender-role behavior in both countries.
Abstract: With the growing prevalence of the dual-earner family model in industrialized countries the gendered nature of the relationship between employment and parenting has become a key issue for childbearing decisions and behavior. In such a context taking into account the societal gender structure (public policies, family-level gender relations) explicitly can enhance our understanding of contemporary fertility trends. In this paper we study the second birth, given its increasing importance in the developed world as large proportions of women remain childless or bear only one child. We focus on Sweden where gender equality is pronounced at both the societal and the family level and on Hungary where the dual-earner model has been accompanied by traditional gender relations in the home sphere. Our analysis is based on data extracted from the Swedish and Hungarian Fertility and Family Surveys of 1992/93. We use the method of hazard regression. The results suggest that the second-birth intensity increases as the combination of parenthood and labor-force attachment of either parent is facilitated. We see this in the effect of family policies in Sweden and in the higher second-birth intensity of couples who share family responsibilities as compared to those with traditional gender-role behavior in both countries. Also, the lack of any visible impact of men's educational attainment in both Sweden and Hungary is probably linked to public policies as state support for families with children has reduced the importance of income for second childbearing. A positive educational gradient for Swedish women and an essentially zero gradient in Hungary reflects the success of policy measures in reducing fertility cost for more educated women in both countries.
277 citations
TL;DR: Over an 18-year period (1982–2000), it is shown that while aggregate intentions are quite stable, individual intentions are very common at the individual level, and how the circumstances that allowdiscrepancies between intentions and behavior to almost ``balance'' in the U.S. may cumulate differently elsewhere toproduce much lower fertility.
Abstract: Building on a framework suggested by Bongaarts (2001)and using data from the 1979 National LongitudinalSurvey of Youth, we describe the correspondencebetween intended family size and observed fertilityfor the 1957 to 1961 birth cohorts of US women andmen Over an 18-year period (1982–2000), we showthat while aggregate intentions are quite stable,discrepancies are very common at the individual levelWomen and men were more likely to err in predictingnumber of additional births in the period 1982–2000 thanto hit their target number A very strong predictor of over-and underachieving fertility is initial intended parity Thosewho intended more than two children tended to have fewerchildren than intended, while those who intended fewer thantwo children tended to have more children than intended Inaddition and consistent with life course arguments, thoseunmarried in 1982, childless in 1982, and (for women) stillin school in 1982 were most likely to underachieve their 2000intended parity (ie, have fewer children than intended) Weconclude by reflecting on how the circumstances that allowdiscrepancies between intentions and behavior to almost``balance'' in the US may cumulate differently elsewhere toproduce much lower fertility
255 citations
TL;DR: In this article, different types of social mechanisms responsible for the interdependence of couples' reproductive preferences predicted by diffusion models of fertility and family behavior are investigated, and the efficacy of each mechanism depends on the kind and the structure of personal relationships involved in the interaction.
Abstract: The article investigates the different types of social mechanisms responsible for the interdependence of couples' reproductive preferences predicted by diffusion models of fertility and family behavior. We analyze the transcripts of in-depth interviews carried out with 54 women in the northern part of Italy. The rich information on observations and conversations about fertility and family choices with relatives and peers enables us to distinguish four different ways in which social interaction influences reproductive preferences, namely social learning, social pressure, subjective obligation and contagion. Second, we show how the efficacy of each mechanism affecting fertility behavior depends on the kind and the structure of personal relationships involved in the interaction. Finally, we discuss the ways in which individual attitudes and values associated with the transition to parenthood are produced and negotiated in face-to-face interactions, and the importance of focusing on the process of preference-formationand modification for understanding fertility behavior.
209 citations
TL;DR: This paper used data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1979 to 1990 matched to census tract data to provide the first estimates of duration of stay and rates of re-entry in poor (20%+ poor) and extremely poor (40%+) census tracts.
Abstract: Although discussions of poor neighborhoods often assume that their residents are a distinct population trapped in impoverished environments for long durations, no past research has examined longitudinal patterns of residence in poor neighborhoods beyond single-year transitions. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1979 to 1990 matched to census tract data, this paper provides the first estimates of duration of stay and rates of re-entry in poor (20%+ poor) and extremely poor (40%+ poor) census tracts. The results indicate that (1) there is great racial inequality in longitudinal patterns of exposure to poorneighborhoods – mostAfrican Americans will live in a poor neighborhood over a 10 year span, contrasted to only 10 percent of whites; (2) exits from high poverty neighborhoods are not uncommon, but re-entries to poor neighborhoods following an exit are also very common, especially among African Americans; and (3) length of spell in a poor neighborhood is positively associated with low income, female headship, and, most of all, black race. Little of the racial difference is accounted for by racial difference in poverty status or family structure. Implications for research and public policy are discussed.
196 citations
Journal Article•
140 citations
TL;DR: The Dutch labor market faces a number of persistent problems as discussed by the authors, such as the large number of people on disability benefits, the low labor force participation of women, not so much in terms of people, but in the terms of hours worked (Henkens et al. 2002).
Abstract: Despite the strong growth in employment of the past years, the Dutch labor market faces a number of persistent problems. One such problem is the large number of people on disability benefits. Another problem is the low labor force participation of women, not so much in terms of people, but in terms of hours worked (Henkens et al. 2002). And, despite an increase since the mid-1990s, the labor force participation of people over 50 is also much lower than the European average (OECD 1996). These low labor force participation rates should be seen against the backdrop of a strong increase in labor demand in recent years. In many sectors of the Dutch economy, this has led to tightness in the labor market (CPB 2000). Given that the population of the Netherlands is aging, new imbalances are looming on the horizon. Structural changes need to be implemented to pay for the growing number of pensioners. [....]
137 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined why the elderly living in neighborhoods consider moving and found that strong social bonds, combined with residential satisfaction, are working as important factors when the mobility intentions of elderly urban residents are deterred.
Abstract: Under the incorporation of social bonds within the residential satisfaction model, this study has attempted to examine why the elderly living in neighborhoods consider moving. The main hypothesis proposed in this study is that the four social bonds (friendship, social cohesion and trust, informal social control, and neighborhood activities), combined with residential satisfaction, affect the mobility intentions of elderly urban residents. This hypothesis is tested by survey data collected in 1995 from 1123 Chicago residents age 65 and over. The results support the hypothesis that strong social bonds, combined with residential satisfaction, are working as important factors when the mobility intentions of elderly urban residents are deterred.
126 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the parity-specific probabilities of having a next birth are estimated from national fertility data and are compared with nation-specific costs of having children as measured by time-budget data, by attitude data from the International Social Survey Program, and by panel data on labor earnings and standard of living changes following a birth.
Abstract: Parity-specific probabilities of having a next birth are estimated from national fertility data and are compared with nation-specific costs of having children as measured by time-budget data, by attitude data from the International Social Survey Program, and by panel data on labor earnings and standard of living changes following a birth. We focus on five countries (the United States, the former West Germany, Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom), whose fertility rates span the observed fertility range in the contemporary industrialized world and whose social welfare and family policies span the conceptual space of standard welfare-state typologies. Definitive conclusions are difficult because of the multiple dimensions on which child costs can be measured, the possibility that child costs affect both the quantum and the tempo of fertility, the relatively small fertility differences across industrialized nations, and the inherent small-N problem resulting from nation-level comparisons. Empirical analysis, however, supports the assertion that institutionally driven child costs affect the fertility patterns of industrialized nations.
108 citations
TL;DR: The global variation inreplacement fertility is substantial, ranging by almost 1.4 live births from less than 2.1 to nearly 3.5, due almost entirely to cross-country differencesin mortality, concentrated in the less developed world as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: It is frequently assumed by the general public and alsoby some population experts that the value ofreplacement-level fertility is everywhere an averageof 2.1 lifetime births per woman. Nothing could befurther from the truth. The global variation inreplacement fertility is substantial, ranging by almost1.4 live births from less than 2.1 to nearly 3.5. Thisrange is due almost entirely to cross-country differencesin mortality, concentrated in the less developed world.Policy makers need to be sensitive to own-countryreplacement rates. Failure to do so could result infertility levels that are below replacement and lead tolong-run population decline. For example, the currentreplacement total fertility rate for the East Africa regionis 2.94. Lowering fertility to 2.10 would, under currentmortality conditions, result in a regional birthrate 29 percentbelow replacement.
TL;DR: In this article, the fertility of rural-urban migrant women to that of rural and urban nonmigrants was compared using hazard regression models of union formation, first birth, and third and higher parity births.
Abstract: Guatemala has the highest fertility of any country in Latin America, and it is also the least urbanized. Projected rural-urban migration will shift more of Guatemala's population from rural areas into towns and cities. This article uses retrospective life-history data collected in migrant origin and destination areas in Guatemala to compare the fertility of rural-urban migrant women to that of rural and urban nonmigrants. Results from discrete-time hazard regression models of union formation, first birth, and third and higher parity births indicate that delayed marriage while still in rural areas, and the rapid adoption of urban fertility practices after migration, result in intermediate migrant fertility that is closer to that of urban natives than rural nonmigrants. If current patterns are any guide to the future, the redistribution of population from high fertility rural areas to towns and cities in Guatemala will accelerate the decline in aggregate fertility beyond what would have resulted from declines in rural and urban fertility alone.
TL;DR: In this paper, the implications of land-use patterns as related to population and development within the context of the California Mojave Desert ecosystem were examined in a GIS including remotely sensed imagery, and demographic, economic, and biophysical data.
Abstract: Demographic and land use dynamics have important implications for the natural environment within both developed and developing nations. Within the context of developed nations, popular and policy debates surrounding contemporary patterns of suburbanization attest to the salience of demographic and development issues. We examine the implications of land-use patterns as related to population and development within the context of the California Mojave Desert ecosystem. In a general sense, we aim to better understand the land require- ments inferred by varying levels of population growth and density, as well as the natural habitat implications of those requirements. We develop a GIS including remotely sensed imagery, and demographic, economic, and biophysical data to examine of the implications of various demographic scenarios on species diversity. Spatial and statistical models are designed to develop possible alternative land use 'futures'. Within the context of the California Mojave region, our results suggest that high-density development could reduce conflict with regions providing potential habitat for threatened or endangered species by over 80 percent. The pro- cess of model development demonstrates a potentially useful tool for policymakers, allowing for estimation and visualization of the land use implications of policy decisions.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the effect of age at first birth on fertility and found that women who had first births early tend to have a higher number of births than those whose first births occur late, regardless of birth cohort.
Abstract: This paper examines the nature of the inverse association between age at first birth and fertility across successive generations of Ghanaian women. Within the context of enhanced non-marital opportunities for contemporary women and declining fertility, we develop a rationale for and test the hypothesis that in a medium fertility environment as currently found in Ghana, the effect of age at first birth on fertility becomes more important than ever before. Five birth cohorts were identified (1938–1944; 1945–1949;1950–1954; 1955–1959; 1960–1964)from a merged file of the 1988, 1993 and 1998 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys. The analyses were restricted to women over 35 years old at the time of the surveys, which allowed us to use current parity as a reasonable proxy for completed fertility. Preliminary results suggest that women who had first births early tend to have a higher number of births than those whose first births occur late, regardless of birth cohort. In multivariate analyses, the effect of age at first birth as a determinant of fertility was found to be more substantial among later cohorts. The implications of the findings are discussed.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the interaction between religion and other socioeconomic factors, that is, whether the effect of religion on fertility remains constant across other factors, and found that large Hindu-Muslim fertility differences at a low level of education do not persist at higher levels.
Abstract: In a revelation of overall decline to below replacement fertility in the Kerala state of India, it was generally found that fertility among Muslims is higher and contraceptive prevalence lower than among Hindus and Christians. This paper examines the interaction between religion and other socioeconomic factors, that is, whether the effect of religion on fertility remains constant across other factors. The analysis is based on the data from the National Family Health Survey-1 in Kerala. The analysis found that large Hindu-Muslim fertility differences at a low level of education do not persist at higher levels. For contraceptive use, wider gaps are found at a middle level of education and at a medium level of standard of living than at lower and higher levels. This indicates that couples at different socioeconomic settings make different decisions in spite of belonging to the same religion. The fact that fertility of Muslims at higher levels of socioeconomic status is low, and not much different than the fertility of other religions, suggests that the observed fertility gap between Hindus/Christians and Muslims is a passing phenomenon.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors directly test the expected interrelationship between popula- tion and the environment using annual county-level population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau and annual counts of dust storms from the 1960s, '70s, and '80s at weather stations situated throughout the United States.
Abstract: Recently, the National Academy of Sciences concluded "it is clear that popula- tion and the environment are usually interrelated . .." . This paper directly tests the expected interrelationship using annual county-level population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau and annual counts of dust storms from the 1960s, '70s, and '80s at weather stations situated throughout the U.S. Great Plains. In doing so, it implements a research design that extends methods (far removed from conventional demography) for pure time series analysis with multilevel regression models. The result is a method for causal modeling in panel data that produces, in this application, evidence of bilateral causality between population size and deleterious environmental conditions.
TL;DR: Girl shave lower odds than boys of visiting doctors versus lay providers and private versus informal facilities, and the involvement of fathers in prior discussions about care may be important to reduce this disparity.
Abstract: Research indicates that girls' disadvantage in 1–4 mortality is unusually high inEgypt, yet the relevance of intra-family differences in power for the distributionof health resources is debated. This analysis compares effects of the involvementof various family members on choice of provider, place of care, and total expendituresfor curative care among 129 girls and boys with diarrhea in Minia, Egypt. Girlshave lower odds than boys of visiting doctors versus lay providers and privateversus informal facilities, and the involvement of fathers in prior discussionsabout care may be important to reduce this disparity. Median expenditures forcurative care also are lower for girls than boys, particularly when fathers arenever involved in choice of care. Future research should examine the extent towhich these disparities in care reflect differences in the quality of care received.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined how Asian, Black, Hispanic and white baby boomers compare in terms of housing values; and what role business income and interest, dividends and rental income have on housing values for Asian, black, Hispanic, and white boomers.
Abstract: Race and ethnicity, as well as cohort status are strong predictors of asset ownership including home ownership and housing values. Yet, seldom have the two concepts been linked. Additionally, potentially important determinants such as business income have often times been excluded from the analyses despite findings suggesting that business income may be an important indicator for racial and ethnic minorities who would otherwise be relegated to employment in low status jobs in the secondary labor market. Using the most recent data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample, this study examines: (1) How Asian, Black, Hispanic and white baby boomers compare in terms of housing values; and (2) What role business income and interest, dividends and rental income have on housing values for Asian, Black, Hispanic and white baby boomers. Significant racial and ethnic differences in housing values exist, and business income and interest, dividends and rental income are all significant indicators of housing values for all groups.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present evidence suggesting that using such social networks can have the unanticipated consequence of reaching a set of men who are at relatively low risk of contracting AIDS.
Abstract: As a sexually transmitted disease, AIDS spreads along social networks; consequently,it is reasonable to propose to utilize these networks in teaching people to avoid practices that put them at increased risk of contracting AIDS. Most obviously, homosexual men are both at relatively high risk of contracting AIDS, and in many urban areas have well crystallized community structures and high social connectivity. We present evidence suggesting that using such social networks can have the unanticipated consequence of reaching a set of men who are at relatively low risk. Evidently, there is great unobserved heterogeneity among the population in terms of risk, and while this heterogeneity is not captured by conventional measures of risk behavior, it is closely linked to network processes.
TL;DR: Aggregate figures for a diverse minority group may be masking very real changes and makes it all the more imperative that different Latino groups are considered separately and try to better understand issues of immigration and acculturation.
Abstract: Previous research suggests that Hispanic elders, as a group, have been much more likely to live with others, especially adult children, than have other, especially non-Hispanic White, elders. It has also tracked an increase in solitary and couple-only living among the latter group since the turn of the century. However, it has not tracked changed living ar- rangements among Hispanic elders. When we do so, we find little aggregate change since 1970, but noteworthy change in different directions among different Hispanic subgroups. Thus aggregate figures for a diverse minority group may be masking very real changes and makes it all the more imperative that we consider different Latino groups separately and try to better understand issues of immigration and acculturation.
TL;DR: This paper examined the determinants of earnings among male Cuban immigrants in the U.S. by race and found that nonwhite Cuban immigrants earn about 15 percent less than whites, on average.
Abstract: This study uses data from the 1980 and 1990 Census and the 1994–2000 Current Population Survey to examine the determinants of earnings among male Cuban immigrants in the U.S. by race. Nonwhite Cuban immigrants earn about 15 percent less than whites, on average. Much of the racial wage gap is due to differences in educational attainment, age at migration, and years in the U.S., but the gap remains at almost 4 percent after controlling for such factors. Nonwhite Cuban immigrants also have lower returns to education than whites. A comparison to white, non-Hispanic U.S. natives indicates that nonwhite Cubans not only earn less initially than white Cubans on arrival in the U.S., but also do not significantly close the racial earnings gap over time.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the association between additional employment or subsistence measures (second jobs, part-time self-employment, and parttime family agriculture) and the probability to have a first or a second child in Russia during 1990 and the spring of 1993.
Abstract: At the beginning of the transition period, many Russian households faced substantial economic hardships and uncertainties. An economic downturn had become one of the major factors responsible for the significant and rapid decline of Russian fertility. However, many households tried to cope with this situation by engaging in multiple income generating activities and the cultivation of food on private plots of land. The question therefore arises whether these activities had a positive impact on fertility decisions. This paper explores the association between additional employment or subsistence measures (second jobs, part-time self-employment, and part-time family agriculture) and the probability to have a first or a second child in Russia during 1990 and the spring of 1993. Data from 966 respondents from the Russian component of the survey “Social Stratification in Eastern Europe after 1989: General Population Survey” show that activities that generate an additional income were positively associated with the birth of a second child. This is especially the case if these activities produce half of a respondent's or her household's income. The birth of a second child was also positively associated with the fact that a household consumed food that was cultivated by the household itself. However, none of these activities was significantly connected with the birth of a first child.
TL;DR: This paper found that early immigrant groups (i.e., British, Western, and Northern Europeans) have the highest percentage of members living in non-poor neighborhoods, while two visible minority groups, black and East and Southeast Asians, have high percentage of living in very poor neighborhoods.
Abstract: In this paper, we addressed three questions. First, how transient are poorneighborhoods? Second, is the distribution of different racial and ethnicgroups affected unequally by changes in the economic status of neighborhoods?Third, what is the relative importance of the neighborhood life cycle,invasion-succession and spatial effect models in explaining the transitionof poor neighborhoods? Based on 1986 and 1991 Canadian census data,we found that the poverty rates of a substantial percentage of neighborhoodschanged during the five years. We also found a consistent pattern that earlyimmigrant groups (i.e., British, Western, and Northern Europeans) have thehighest percentage of members living in non-poor neighborhoods. At the otherend of the continuum, two visible minority groups, blacks and East and SoutheastAsians, have the highest percentage of members living in very poor neighborhoods.In addition, as suggested by the invasion-succession model, the proportion of visibleminorities in neighborhoods strongly affects the neighborhood poverty levels.Implications of the findings are discussed.
TL;DR: The conclusion that Apgar scores continue to be strong predictors of infant survival, independent of birth weight, gestational age, and a large number of maternal risk factors, is supported.
Abstract: Objective. Our general objective of this study is to furtherassess the predictive validity of Apgar scores on infant mortality using a national-level data setallowing for race/ethnic-specific variation. Method. This analysis is based on the 1989–1991NCHS Linked Birth/Infant Death files. Multivariate, multinomial logistic regression modelswere constructed adjusting for maternal behavioral and health risks, socioeconomic and demographicfactors, and infant characteristics. Results. After adjusting for maternal riskfactors, infants with low Apgar scores experienced 86 times the odds of neonatal death relative tohigh Apgar score infants while infants with medium Apgar scores experienced 10 times the odds ofneonatal death relative to the high Apgar referent. After controlling for maternal risk factors,birth weight and gestational age, the effect of low Apgar scores on neonatal mortality risk relativeto high Apgar scores is reduced (from OR = 86.1 to OR = 31.2), but still remains a strong predictor.Fully adjusted, race/ethnic-specific models show that the predictive value oflow Apgar on neonatal mortality risk is strongest for Mexican Americans (OR = 44.2) versusNon-Hispanic Whites and Blacks (OR = 36.2 and 20.4 respectively). Conclusion Ourresults support the conclusion that Apgar scores continue to be strong predictors of infant survival,independent of birth weight, gestational age, and a large number of maternal risk factors.They are also shown to be powerful predictors within different race/ethnic groups, solidifying theirimportance as both a diagnostic tool and descriptive health characteristic across various U.S.populations.
TL;DR: This article used the 1990 Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) to analyze the relationship between immigration and outmigration of the native born in New York City and found that immigration has an insignificant effect on migratory behavior, with the exception of inter-borough migration.
Abstract: The 1990 Public Use Micro Sample is used to analyze the relationship between immigration and outmigration of the native born in New York City. The study population is limited to native born males who lived in the five boroughs in 1985. The relationship between immigration and the probability of various kinds of moves is assessed using logistic regression. Results suggest that immigration has an insignificant effect on migratory behavior, with the exception of inter-borough migration. Unlike prior work, this study examines a single metro area, and does not limit itself to inter-state migration. These results are consistent with more recent work (Card 2001; Kritz et al. 2001), which has failed to find a positive labor market level effect of immigration on native migratory behavior. The inter-borough finding is consistent with the occurrence of voluntary residential segregation within the city, in which the native born move away from areas of immigrant concentration but do not leave the labor market, yet there is no direct evidence that this process occurred.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed an analytical model of the effect of family planning expendit- ures on per capita income and provided tentative numerical estimates of the optimal ratio for several developing economies.
Abstract: This paper develops an analytical model of the effect of family planning expendit- ures on per capita income. The perspective is that of constrained optimization: a predetermined level of overall development resources is to be allocated to family planning programs and alternative uses in the form of expansion of the generalized capital stock (plant and machinery, education and training, and social infrastructure). The principal functions of the model are power forms, so that an explicit solution may be obtained for the optimal ratio of family planning expenditures to overall development resources. Important insights into the nature of this policy question are derived from consideration of the formula. In addition, tentative numerical estimates of the optimal ratio are presented for several developing economies. These estimates suggest that quite a substantial proportion of overall development resources should be allocated to family planning programs in most developing nations. The paper is concluded with a brief evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the optimization approach to population policy issues.
TL;DR: The Chinese fertility decline, at least as reflected in the experience of rural women in Hebei Province, derived mainly from secular changes in women's access to education and other social resources rather than from the direct effects of population policies.
Abstract: Background: The People's Republic of China (PRC) has conducted several different population policies since its establishment. Although fertility has declined dramatically in the past three decades, the degree to which this was the result of the different population policies is still under debate. Purpose: We attempt to evaluate the effect of the different formal population policies conducted in the PRC by looking at the fertility behavior of rural women. Unlike urban women, rural women experienced less social control (in the absence of a work unit) and received fewer benefits from adhering to the one-child policy. Data: The data analyzed were collected from a stratified sample of households from 288 villages in 9 counties of Hebei Province, PRC, between 1996 and 1999. The number of children ever born was reported by 4,168 ever-married women aged 25 and over who had had at least one birth. Findings: Our analysis indicates that the formal population policies of the PRC had little effect on the number of children ever born to rural women in Hebei. These retrospective data, by cohort, indicate consistently declining fertility since the revolution (1949). Limited child bearing was associated with age and the level of education. Controlling for the effect of age and education, women born after 1960, at whom the one-child policy was directed, actually had more children than older women. Conclusions: The Chinese fertility decline, at least as reflected in the experience of rural women in Hebei Province, derived mainly from secular changes in women's access to education and other social resources rather than from the direct effects of population policies.