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Showing papers in "Scandinavian Actuarial Journal in 2016"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This work compares eight model structures for mortality in the R language and discusses the possibility of forecasting with these models; in particular, the introduction of cohort terms generally leads to an improvement in overall fit, but can also make forecasting withThese models problematic.
Abstract: Many common models of mortality can be expressed compactly in the language of either generalized linear models or generalized non-linear models. The R language provides a description of these models which parallels the usual algebraic definitions but has the advantage of a transparent and flexible model specification. We compare eight model structures for mortality. For each structure, we consider (a) the Poisson models for the force of mortality with both log and logit link functions and (b) the binomial models for the rate of mortality with logit and complementary log–log link functions. Part of this work shows how to extend the usual smooth two-dimensional P-spline model for the force of mortality with Poisson error and log link to the other smooth two-dimensional P-spline models with Poisson and binomial errors defined in (a) and (b). Our comments are based on the results of fitting these models to data from six countries: Australia, France, Japan, Sweden, UK and USA. We also discuss the possibility o...

101 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider the optimal proportional reinsurance strategy in a risk model with two dependent classes of insurance business, where the two claim number processes are correlated through a common shock component.
Abstract: In this paper, we consider the optimal proportional reinsurance strategy in a risk model with two dependent classes of insurance business, where the two claim number processes are correlated through a common shock component. Under the criterion of maximizing the expected exponential utility with the variance premium principle, we adopt a nonstandard approach to examining the existence and uniqueness of the optimal reinsurance strategy. Using the technique of stochastic control theory, closed-form expressions for the optimal strategy and the value function are derived for the compound Poisson risk model as well as for the Brownian motion risk model. From the numerical examples, we see that the optimal results for the compound Poisson risk model are very different from those for the diffusion model. The former depends not only on the safety loading, time, and the interest rate, but also on the claim size distributions and the claim number processes, while the latter depends only on the safety loading, time,...

99 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the impact of allowing for multiple structural changes on a large collection of mortality models was analyzed and it was shown that this may lead to more robust projections for the period effect but that there is only a limited effect on the ranking of the models based on backtesting criteria, since there is often not yet sufficient statistical evidence for structural changes.
Abstract: Most mortality models proposed in recent literature rely on the standard ARIMA framework (in particular: a random walk with drift) to project mortality rates. As a result the projections are highly sensitive to the calibration period. We therefore analyse the impact of allowing for multiple structural changes on a large collection of mortality models. We find that this may lead to more robust projections for the period effect but that there is only a limited effect on the ranking of the models based on backtesting criteria, since there is often not yet sufficient statistical evidence for structural changes. However, there are cases for which we do find improvements in estimates and we therefore conclude that one should not exclude on beforehand that structural changes may have occurred.

61 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an optimal time-consistent reinsurance-investment strategy selection problem for an insurer whose surplus is governed by a compound Poisson risk model is considered. And the problem is investigated using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman dynamic programming approach.
Abstract: We consider an optimal time-consistent reinsurance-investment strategy selection problem for an insurer whose surplus is governed by a compound Poisson risk model. In our model, the insurer transfers part of the risk due to insurance claims via a proportional reinsurance and invests the surplus in a simplified financial market consisting of a risk-free asset and a risky stock. The dynamics of the risky stock is governed by a constant elasticity of variance model to incorporate conditional heteroscedasticity as well as the feedback effect of an asset’s price on its volatility. The objective of the insurer is to choose an optimal time-consistent reinsurance-investment strategy so as to maximize the expected terminal surplus while minimizing the variance of the terminal surplus. We investigate the problem using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman dynamic programming approach. Closed-form solutions for the optimal reinsurance-investment strategies and the corresponding value functions are obtained in both the compoun...

48 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors study optimal reinsurance treaties that minimize the liability of an insurer, defined as the actuarial reserve on an insurer's risk exposure plus the risk margin required for the risk exposure.
Abstract: In this paper, we study optimal reinsurance treaties that minimize the liability of an insurer. The liability is defined as the actuarial reserve on an insurer’s risk exposure plus the risk margin required for the risk exposure. The risk margin is determined by the risk measure of expectile. Among a general class of reinsurance premium principles, we prove that a two-layer reinsurance treaty is optimal. Furthermore, if a reinsurance premium principle in the class is translation invariant or is the expected value principle, we show that a one-layer reinsurance treaty is optimal. Moreover, we use the expected value premium principle and Wang’s premium principle to demonstrate how the parameters in an optimal reinsurance treaty can be determined explicitly under a given premium principle.

45 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an optimal investment, consumption, and life insurance purchase problem for a wage earner in a complete market with Brownian information was discussed, and the optimal investment-consumption-insurance strategy was chosen to maximize the expected, discounted utilities from intertemporal consumption, legacy and terminal wealth over an uncertain lifetime horizon.
Abstract: This paper discusses an optimal investment, consumption, and life insurance purchase problem for a wage earner in a complete market with Brownian information. Specifically, we assume that the parameters governing the market model and the wage earner, including the interest rate, appreciation rate, volatility, force of mortality, premium-insurance ratio, income and discount rate, are all random processes adapted to the Brownian motion filtration. Our modeling framework is very general, which allows these random parameters to be unbounded, non-Markovian functionals of the underlying Brownian motion. Suppose that the wage earner’s preference is described by a power utility. The wage earner’s problem is then to choose an optimal investment-consumption-insurance strategy so as to maximize the expected, discounted utilities from intertemporal consumption, legacy and terminal wealth over an uncertain lifetime horizon. We use a novel approach, which combines the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and backward stoch...

45 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results suggest the composite Weibull–Stoppa model outperforms the existing composite models in all seven goodness-of-fit measures considered.
Abstract: In this paper, a new class of composite model is proposed for modeling actuarial claims data of mixed sizes. The model is developed using the Stoppa distribution and a mode-matching procedure. The use of the Stoppa distribution allows for more flexibility over the thickness of the tail, and the mode-matching procedure gives a simple derivation of the model compositing with a variety of distributions. In particular, the Weibull–Stoppa and the Lognormal–Stoppa distributions are investigated. Their performance is compared with existing composite models in the context of the well-known Danish fire insurance data-set. The results suggest the composite Weibull–Stoppa model outperforms the existing composite models in all seven goodness-of-fit measures considered.

42 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a general spectrally negative Levy risk process is considered and the Laplace transform of the ruin probability in terms of so-called q-scale functions is identified.
Abstract: The paper deals with a ruin problem, where there is a Parisian delay and a lower ultimate bankrupt barrier. In this problem, we will say that a risk process get ruined when it stays below zero longer than a fixed amount of time ζ > 0 or goes below a fixed level −a. We focus on a general spectrally negative Levy insurance risk process. For this class of processes, we identify the Laplace transform of the ruin probability in terms of so-called q-scale functions. We find its Cramer-type and convolution-equivalent asymptotics when reserves tends to infinity. Finally, we analyze few explicit examples.

35 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a dynamic programming algorithm for pricing variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits (GMWB) under a general Levy processes framework is presented, where the policyholder has the right to make periodical withdrawals from her policy account even when the value of this account is exhausted.
Abstract: In this paper, we present a dynamic programming algorithm for pricing variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits (GMWB) under a general Levy processes framework. The GMWB gives the policyholder the right to make periodical withdrawals from her policy account even when the value of this account is exhausted. Typically, the total amount guaranteed for withdrawals coincides with her initial investment, providing then a protection against downside market risk. At each withdrawal date, the policyholder has to decide whether, and how much, to withdraw, or to surrender the contract. We show how different policyholder’s withdrawal behaviours can be modelled. We perform a sensitivity analysis comparing the numerical results obtained for different contractual and market parameters, policyholder behaviours and different types of Levy processes.

34 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Using a general notion of convex order, general lower bounds for risk measures of aggregated positions under dependence uncertainty are derived, and this in arbitrary dimensions and for heterogeneous models.
Abstract: Using a general notion of convex order, we derive general lower bounds for risk measures of aggregated positions under dependence uncertainty, and this in arbitrary dimensions and for heterogeneous models. We also prove sharpness of the bounds obtained when each marginal distribution has a decreasing density. The main result answers a long-standing open question and yields an insight in optimal dependence structures. A numerical algorithm provides bounds for quantities of interest in risk management. Furthermore, our numerical results suggest that the bounds obtained in this paper are generally sharp for a broader class of models.

34 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a copula-based multivariate Tweedie regression was proposed for modeling the semi-continuous claims while accommodating the association among different types of coverage, resulting in a multivariate version of the double generalized linear model.
Abstract: The Tweedie distribution, featured with a mass probability at zero, is a convenient tool for insurance claims modeling and pure premium determination in general insurance. Motivated by the fact that an insurance policy typically provides multiple types of coverage, we propose a copula-based multivariate Tweedie regression for modeling the semi-continuous claims while accommodating the association among different types. The proposed approach also allows for dispersion modeling, resulting in a multivariate version of the double generalized linear model. We demonstrate the application in insurance ratemaking using a portfolio of policyholders of automobile insurance from the state of Massachusetts in the United States.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on a discrete-time risk model in which both insurance risk and financial risk are taken into account, and derive precise asymptotic formulas for the ruin probabilities when the insurance risk has a dominatedly varying tail.
Abstract: This contribution focuses on a discrete-time risk model in which both insurance risk and financial risk are taken into account and they are equipped with a wide type of dependence structure. We derive precise asymptotic formulas for the ruin probabilities when the insurance risk has a dominatedly varying tail. In the special case of regular variation, the corresponding formula is proved to be uniform for the time horizon.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors characterize dynamic investment strategies that are consistent with the expected utility setting and more generally with the forward utility setting, and show that traditional life-cycle funds are not optimal to any expected utility maximizers.
Abstract: In this paper, we characterize dynamic investment strategies that are consistent with the expected utility setting and more generally with the forward utility setting. Two popular dynamic strategies in the pension funds industry are used to illustrate our results: a constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategy and a life-cycle strategy. For the CPPI strategy, we are able to infer preferences of the pension fund’s manager from her investment strategy, and to exhibit the specific expected utility maximization that makes this strategy optimal at any given time horizon. In the Black–Scholes market with deterministic parameters, we are able to show that traditional life-cycle funds are not optimal to any expected utility maximizers. We also prove that a CPPI strategy is optimal for a fund manager with HARA utility function, while an investor with a SAHARA utility function will choose a time-decreasing allocation to risky assets in the same spirit as the life-cycle funds strategy. Finally, we suggest...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a closed-form formula for calculating the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio in an adjusted-rate reverse mortgage (RM) with a lump sum payment was presented.
Abstract: This article presents a closed-form formula for calculating the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio in an adjusted-rate reverse mortgage (RM) with a lump sum payment. Previous literatures consider the pricing of RM in a constant interest rate assumption and price it on fixed-rate loans. This paper successfully considers the dynamic of interest rate and the adjustable-rate RM simultaneously. This paper also considers the housing price shock into the valuation model. Assuming that house prices follow a jump diffusion process with a stochastic interest rate and that the loan interest rate is adjusted instantaneously according to the short rate, we demonstrate that the LTV ratio is independent of the term structure of interest rates. This argument holds even when housing prices follow a general process: an exponential Levy process. In addition, the HECM (Home Equity Conversion Mortgage) program may be not sustainable, especially for a higher level of housing price volatility. Finally, when the loan interest rate is adj...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined some cohort extensions of the Poisson common factor model for modelling both genders jointly and found that direct parameterisation of cohort effect could improve model fitting, reduce the need for additional period factors, and produce consistent mortality forecasts for females and males.
Abstract: The earlier work on mortality modelling and forecasting has largely focused on the study of a single population. Recently, there is an emerging strand of literature that emphasises the interrelationship between multiple populations. In this paper, we examine some cohort extensions of the Poisson common factor model for modelling both genders jointly. The cohort effect is specified in six alternatives which are applied to data-sets from five developed regions. We find that direct parameterisation of cohort effect could improve model fitting, reduce the need for additional period factors, and produce consistent mortality forecasts for females and males. Furthermore, we find that the cohort effect appears to be gender indifferent for the populations examined and has an interaction effect with age in certain cases.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a dependent Sparre Andersen risk process in which the joint density of the interclaim time and the resulting claim severity satisfles the factorization is considered, and the results are applied to generate some numerical examples involving (i) the covariance of the time of ruin and the discounted aggregate claims until ruin; and (ii) the expectation, variance and third central moment of the discounted aggregates until ruin.
Abstract: In this paper, a dependent Sparre Andersen risk process in which the joint density of the interclaim time and the resulting claim severity satisfles the factorization as in Willmot and Woo (2012) is considered. We study a generalization of the Gerber-Shiu function (i) whose penalty function further depends on the surplus level immediately after the second last claim before ruin (Cheung et al. (2010a)); and (ii) which involves the moments of the discounted aggregate claim costs until ruin. The generalized discounted density with a moment-based component proposed in Cheung (2013) plays a key role in deriving recursive defective renewal equations. We pay special attention to the case where the marginal distribution of the interclaim times is Coxian, and the required components in the recursion are obtained. A reverse type of dependency structure where the claim severities follow a combination of exponentials is also brie∞y discussed, and this leads to a nice explicit expression for the expected discounted aggregate claims until ruin. Our results are applied to generate some numerical examples involving (i) the covariance of the time of ruin and the discounted aggregate claims until ruin; and (ii) the expectation, variance and third central moment of the discounted aggregate claims until ruin.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of various sources of uncertainty on the pricing of a special longevity-based instrument: a -forward contract is studied. And the authors disentangle three main sources and consider their impact on pricing: model choice for the underlying mortality rate, time-window used for estimation and the pricing method itself.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the impact of various sources of uncertainty on the pricing of a special longevity–based instrument: a -forward contract. At the expiry of a -forward contract, the realized mortality rate for a given population is exchanged in return for a fixed (mortality) rate that is agreed at the initiation of the contract. Pricing a -forward involves determining this fixed rate. In our study, we disentangle three main sources of uncertainty and consider their impact on pricing: model choice for the underlying mortality rate, time-window used for estimation and the pricing method itself.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a risk measure derived from ruin theory defined as the amount of capital needed to cope in expectation with the first occurrence of a ruin event is defined, and the authors investigate some properties of this risk measure with respect to the stochastic ordering of claim severities.
Abstract: In this paper, we study a risk measure derived from ruin theory defined as the amount of capital needed to cope in expectation with the first occurrence of a ruin event. Specifically, within the compound Poisson model, we investigate some properties of this risk measure with respect to the stochastic ordering of claim severities. Particular situations where combining risks yield diversification benefits are identified. Closed form expressions and upper bounds are also provided for certain claim severities.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the individual risk model where both per-claim insurance and a policy of reinsurance are jointly chosen by the insurer in order to maximize his/her expected utility.
Abstract: The paper studies the so-called individual risk model where both a policy of per-claim insurance and a policy of reinsurance are chosen jointly by the insurer in order to maximize his/her expected utility. The insurance and reinsurance premiums are defined by the expected value principle. The problem is solved under additional constraints on the reinsurer’s risk and the residual risk of the insured. It is shown that the solution to the problem is the following: The optimal reinsurance is a modification of stop-loss reinsurance policy, so-called stop-loss reinsurance with an upper limit; the optimal insurer’s indemnity is a combination of stop-loss- and deductible policies. The results are illustrated by a numerical example for the case of exponential utility function. The effects of changing model parameters on optimal insurance and reinsurance policies are considered.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on uncertainty issues on disabled lives survival probabilities of LTC insurance policyholders and its consequences on solvency capital requirement, i.e., the risk of unanticipated aggregate mortality arising from the uncertainty in modeling LTC claimants survival law.
Abstract: In this paper, we focus on uncertainty issues on disabled lives survival probabilities of LTC insurance policyholders and its consequences on solvency capital requirement. Among the risks affecting long-term care portfolios, special attention is addressed to the table risk, i.e. the risk of unanticipated aggregate mortality, arising from the uncertainty in modeling LTC claimants survival law. The table risk can be thought as the risk of systematic deviations referring not only to a parameter risk but, as well, to any other sources leading to a misinterpretation of the life table resulting for example from an evolution of medical techniques or a change in rules of acceptance. In fine, the idea is to introduce the risk of systematic deviations arising from the uncertainty on the disabled lives death probabilities directly. We analyze the consequences of an error of appreciation on the disabled lives survival probabilities in terms of level of reserves and describe a framework in an Own Risk and Solvency Ass...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an interpretable univariate risk parameter from amongst the many candidate parameters, by means of uniformization, is identified, and the resulting density form is then expressed as an infinite mixture of Erlang distributions.
Abstract: Credibility theory is a statistical tool to calculate the premium for the next period based on past claims experience and the manual rate. Each contract is characterized by a risk parameter. A phase-type (or PH) random variable, which is defined as the time until absorption in a continuous-time Markov chain, is fully characterized by two sets of parameters from that Markov chain: the initial probability vector and transition intensity matrix. In this article, we identify an interpretable univariate risk parameter from amongst the many candidate parameters, by means of uniformization. The resulting density form is then expressed as an infinite mixture of Erlang distributions. These results are used to obtain a tractable likelihood function by a recursive formula. Then the best estimator for the next premium, i.e. the Bayesian premium, as well as its approximation by the Buhlmann credibility premium are calculated. Finally, actuarial calculations for the Buhlmann and Bayesian premiums are investigated in th...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Two methodologies are studied (ruin probability minimization and expected discount factor maximization) for the optimal strategy selection problem in reinsurance decision and it is disclosed that for some case it is not suitable to search optimal decisions by minimizing the expected time to reach a goal.
Abstract: In this paper, we consider an optimal reinsurance problem. The surplus model of the insurance company is approximated by a diffusion model with the drift coefficient . The insurance company employs reinsurance to reduce the risk. is the proportion of each claim paid by the company and the remainder proportion of the claim is paid by the reinsurer. is the rate at which the premiums are diverted to the reinsurer, thus it holds in general. We discuss two cases: (i) non-cheap reinsurance (when ), (ii) cheap reinsurance (when ). The objective of the insurance company is to make an optimal decision on reinsurance to reach a goal (a given surplus level) in minimal expected time. We disclose that for some case it is not suitable to search optimal decisions by minimizing the expected time to reach a goal. In order to deal with this case, we study two other methodologies (ruin probability minimization and expected discount factor maximization) for the optimal strategy selection problem in reinsurance decision.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a multivariate Tweedie distribution is applied to incorporate dependence, which it induces through a common shock component, and model parameter estimation is developed based on the method of moments and generalized to allow for truncated observations.
Abstract: Systematic longevity risk is increasingly relevant for public pension schemes and insurance companies that provide life benefits. In view of this, mortality models should incorporate dependence between lives. However, the independent lifetime assumption is still heavily relied upon in the risk management of life insurance and annuity portfolios. This paper applies a multivariate Tweedie distribution to incorporate dependence, which it induces through a common shock component. Model parameter estimation is developed based on the method of moments and generalized to allow for truncated observations. The estimation procedure is explicitly developed for various important distributions belonging to the Tweedie family, and finally assessed using simulation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A technique for approximating the distribution of univariate and bivariate aggregate losses, which is solely based on their moments is proposed, which can be implemented without any specific knowledge of the claim number or size distributions.
Abstract: The determination of the distribution of aggregate losses is of crucial importance for an insurer. In this paper, we propose a technique for approximating the distribution of univariate and bivariate aggregate losses, which is solely based on their moments. Accordingly, this methodology can be implemented without any specific knowledge of the claim number or size distributions. The numerical examples presented herein indicate that the proposed approach constitutes a viable alternative to the commonly used recursive and FFT methods.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors considered a discrete-time insurance risk model with insurance and financial risks and derived precise formulas for the tail probability of the present value of aggregate net losses and the finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities.
Abstract: Consider a discrete-time insurance risk model with insurance and financial risks. Within period , the net insurance loss is denoted by and the stochastic discount factor over the same time period is denoted by . Assume that form a sequence of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables with common distribution ; are another sequence of independent and identically distributed positive random variables with common distribution ; and the two sequences are mutually independent. Under the assumptions that is Gamma-like tailed and has a finite upper endpoint, we derive some precise formulas for the tail probability of the present value of aggregate net losses and the finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities. As an extension, a dependent risk model is considered, where each random pair of the net loss and the discount factor follows a bivariate Sarmanov distribution.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors make use of some recent results on the two-sided exit problem for the spectrally negative Markov additive process and a fluid flow analogy between certain queues and risk processes to solve the problem of the renewal insurance risk process.
Abstract: In this paper, we study some drawdown-related quantities in the context of the renewal insurance risk process with general interarrival times and phase-type distributed jump sizes. We make use of some recent results on the two-sided exit problem for the spectrally negative Markov additive process and a fluid flow analogy between certain queues and risk processes to solve for the two-sided exit problem of the renewal insurance risk process. The two-sided exit quantities are later shown to be central to the analysis of drawdown quantities including the drawdown time, the drawdown size, the running maximum (minimum) at the drawdown time, the last running maximum time prior to drawdown, the number of jumps before drawdown and the number of excursions from running maximum before drawdown. Finally, we consider another application of our methodology for the study of the expected discounted dividend payments until ruin.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the moments of the time to ruin in dependent Sparre Andersen models with Coxian claim sizes are studied and an analytical form is provided for the moments, which involves solving linear systems of equations.
Abstract: A very general class of dependent Sparre Andersen models with Coxian claim sizes (e.g. Landriault et al. 2014) is considered in this paper. The moments of the time to ruin are studied under this class. An analytical form is provided for the moments, which involves solving linear systems of equations. Numerical examples are then considered to further study the properties of the mean and variance of the time to ruin.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the first time that the surplus process drops below a certain level from the initial surplus for a risk model with interest is defined, and a generalized Gerber-Shiu-type function is defined based on first time and the number of claims that surplus drops below from, and other -related random variables.
Abstract: In this paper, we define to be the first time that the surplus process drops below a certain level from the initial surplus for a risk model with interest. A generalized Gerber–Shiu-type function is then defined based on the first time and the number of claims that the surplus drops below from , and other -related random variables. Explicit expressions for this function, when , and when under exponential claims, are obtained. We then obtain the moments and probability function (with numerical examples) of the number of claims until . We also investigate a joint transform function of the two-sided first exit time and the number of claims until then, and obtain the probability of the surplus hitting an upper level from the initial surplus without having dropped below a lower level with Erlang claims.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a hybrid stochastic and local volatility model is used to evaluate an equity-linked annuity (ELA), which is a sort of tax-deferred annuity whose credited interest is linked to an equity index.
Abstract: In recent times, hybrid underlying models have become an industry standard for the pricing of derivatives and other problems in finance. This paper chooses a hybrid stochastic and local volatility model to evaluate an equity-linked annuity (ELA), which is a sort of tax-deferred annuity whose credited interest is linked to an equity index. The stochastic volatility component of the hybrid model is driven by a fast mean-reverting diffusion process while the local volatility component is given by the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. Since contracts of the ELA usually have long maturities over 10 years, a slowly moving factor in the stochastic volatility of stock index is expected to play a significant role in the valuation of the ELA, and thus, it is added to the aforementioned model. Based on this multiscale hybrid model, an analytic approximate formula is obtained for the price of a European option in terms of the CEV probability density function and then the result is applied to the value of t...

Journal ArticleDOI
Andrew Luong1
TL;DR: Cramer-Von Mises (CVM) estimators as mentioned in this paper were developed for positive flexible infinitely divisible parametric families generalizing the compound Poisson family and are numerically implementable whenever the characteristic function has a closed form.
Abstract: Cramer–Von Mises (CVM) inference techniques are developed for some positive flexible infinitely divisible parametric families generalizing the compound Poisson family. These larger families appear to be useful for parametric inference for positive data. The methods are based on inverting the characteristic functions. They are numerically implementable whenever the characteristic function has a closed form. In general, likelihood methods based on density functions are more difficult to implement. CVM methods also lead to model testing, with test statistics asymptotically following a chi-square distribution. The methods are for continuous models, but they can also handle models with a discontinuity point at the origin such as the case of compound Poisson models. Simulation studies seem to suggest that CVM estimators are more efficient than moment estimators for the common range of the compound Poisson gamma family. Actuarial applications include estimation of the stop loss premium, and estimation of the pre...