Showing papers in "Socio-economic Planning Sciences in 1989"
TL;DR: In this paper, the use of DEA (data envelopment analysis) as a tool for possible use in evaluating and planning the economic performance of China's cities (28 in all) which play a critical role in the government's program of economic development.
Abstract: This paper studies the use of DEA (data envelopment analysis) as a tool for possible use in evaluating and planning the economic performance of China's cities (28 in all) which play a critical role in the government's program of economic development. DEA promises advantages which include the absence of any need for the assignment of weights on an a priori basis (to reflect the supposed relative importance of various outputs or inputs) when evaluating technical efficiency. It is also unnecessary to explicitly specify underlying functions that are intended to prescribe the analytical form of the relations between inputs and outputs. Finally, as is illustrated in the paper, DEA can be used to identify sources, and estimate amounts of inefficiencies in each city's performance as well as to identify returns-to-scale possibilities in ways that seem well-suited to the mixture of centralized and decentralized planning and performance that China is currently trying to use.
227 citations
TL;DR: A comprehensive bibliographical survey of studies on AHP using the DIALOG online information retrieval service and a survey of 21 dissertation studies for the period 1979–1988 are discussed.
Abstract: Over the last decade, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has emerged as one of the most important research topics in the field of decision analysis. This paper provides a comprehensive bibliographical survey of studies on AHP using the DIALOG online information retrieval service. One hundred and forty-one references of methodological and applied papers on AHP are categorized. This paper also discusses a survey of 21 dissertation studies on AHP for the period 1979–1988.
149 citations
TL;DR: The basic approach to quasi-experimental control group methods is described by presenting an empirical example and an on-going, multi-year research project intended to make these methods readily usable is reported on.
Abstract: Quasi-experimental control group methods can become valuable tools for evaluating public policies and programs that have a spatial dimension. Control groups of places can be used to establish a baseline from which the effect of “treatment” can be inferred. This paper describes the basic approach by presenting an empirical example and then reports on an on-going, multi-year research project intended to make these methods readily usable. The research is focusing on methods for computerizing the selection of control groups and for conducting statistical tests of the significance of the inferred treatment effects.
28 citations
TL;DR: The basis for a conceptual framework for a hybrid regional input-output model is developed and the interdependencies among procedures and conventions are illustrated with discussions of separation of technical and trade coefficients and the uses of secondary data.
Abstract: The process of constructing a hybrid regional input-output model consists of modifying a sequence of intermediate models, with each step improving the representation of the region. The sequence provides a framework for discussing the relationships among various model modification procedures and accounting conventions. This property of hybrid models also makes them well-suited to continuous adaptation and updating. The current paper develops the basis for this conceptual framework and illustrates the interdependencies among procedures and conventions with discussions of separation of technical and trade coefficients and the uses of secondary data. The new West Virginia Input-Output Model is used as an example of hybrid models.
18 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the relationship between key variables at the regional level and particular forms of associated aggregate distributions is formalized, and the dynamic character of inter-industry structure can be developed.
Abstract: Recent developments in probabilistic input-output modeling based on the full-distribution approach demonstrate the relationship between distributional forms of industry aggregates and regionally variant production characteristics. Variables such as market structure, establishment size, prices, labor productivity, technology, product mix, and ages of capital stock, all of which vary regionally, are determinants of the probabilistic structure of interindustry interaction. Two modeling directions are described in this paper. The first concerns formalizing the relationship between key variables at the regional level and particular forms of associated aggregate distributions. Once these relationships are specified, the dynamic character of interindustry structure can be developed. The second modeling direction follows on the first, and concerns the more general implications of the probabilistic perspective for regional economic modeling. One model demonstrated generates a nonlinear output growth path from a linear base-point projection of final demand. This model places the regional cyclical stability issue in a new light, and establishes a method for generating interval estimates of regional economic performance for forecasting purposes.
17 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a taxonomy of economies and their associated models to describe the space-time evolution of the economic system by reference to a field of influence associated with change in single elements, whole rows or columns in the input-output table of the economy.
Abstract: Imagine an economy divided into n regions; as this economy grows and develops, what can be said about the way in which production changes? The input-output system of accounts-and more extensive versions of social accounting systems-provides a useful framework for examining the spatial organization of production. In this paper, several new concepts using input-output tables and their associated models are introduced in an attempt to aid this understanding. Within each economy, a fundamental economic structure (FES) is presumed to exist. The FES is comprised of a set of interactions that have the characteristics of predictability and analytical importance. The FES provides the basis for the development of a taxonomy of economies and thus the potential for describing the space-time (evolution) of the economic system. The evolution may be described by reference to a field of influence associated with change in single elements, whole rows or columns in the input-output table of the economy. These ideas are then linked with the processes of innovation diffusion through the productive system and innovation adoption in the consumption system. The presence of innovations thus provides a competitive environment and the locus of change within the system. The synergistic effects of changes in the productive and consumption components may be realized in a multiregional setting. The framework proposed provides a rich, conceptual and analytical organization for capturing system-wide effects of changes in the spatial organization of production. Potential links with the concept of a spatial multiplier, the role of industrial organization and the possibilities of spatial switching and reswitching (a la Sraffa) are also considered.
15 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined both theoretical and empirical relationships between residential accessibility and aspects of travel-related behavior such as a household's activity pattern, trip formation procedure, use of multidestination trip-making and expenditure of time on travel.
Abstract: The purpose of this research is to examine both theoretical and empirical relationships between residential accessibility (defined here as the spatial distribution of urban travel destinations relative to a household) and aspects of travel-related behaviour such as a household's activity pattern, trip formation procedure, use of multidestination trip-making and expenditure of time on travel. Although prior research has been conducted on this topic the analysis presented here is innovative in that trip-making rates, use of multidestination trip-making and travel time expenditures are shown to be causally related to (and simple consequences of) household activity levels which are themselves leveraged by socio-economic factors. Recognition of this hierarchical causal structure promotes a conclusion that observed spatial variability in aspects of household trip-making behaviour are, for the most part, a consequence of the socio-economic spatial structure of urban areas, and are not due to residential accessibility conditions.
14 citations
TL;DR: The Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) developed at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is used to project impacts on a region's industrial output, earnings, and employment that result from an exogenous change in final demand as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II), developed at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is used to project impacts on a region's industrial output, earnings, and employment that result from an exogenous change in final demand. Recently, BEA expanded RIMS II by means of a fiscal component which permits the projection of the impacts on local government expenditures and revenues as well. This paper discusses the procedure used to estimate local government fiscal impacts and provides an example application of the fiscal component.
9 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors extend the traditional Miyazawa framework to analyze the interrelations between income, age and income-age subgroups in the income formation process and show that age is an important disaggregation criterion.
Abstract: In this paper we extend the traditional Miyazawa framework to analyze the interrelations between income, age and income-age subgroups in the income formation process. Our model is constructed using the 1972 U.S. input-output table and data from the 1972 Consumer Expenditure Survey, the 1972 National Income and Product Accounts and the 1980 Census. There are a number of interesting trends in the data that indicate age is an important disaggregation criterion. Three different income bases are specified: gross, disposable and consumption, and we examine the sensitivity of the interrelational multipliers to the income base specification. We compare our results with the findings of Rose and Beaumont, who conducted a similar study, but considered only income, rather than income and age. Our results show that the income-age disaggregation adds considerable information to a household endogenous input-output model and that multiplier values and trends vary significantly with income base specification.
7 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the importance of the topic and a number of issues that arise in building such integrated models, including theoretical principles that should guide the research, a general matrix framework that accounts for flows within the economy and between the economy between the environment and environmental media, and possibilities for applying principles of environmental benefit-cost analysis to regional forecasting and simulation models.
Abstract: In many regions, there are major nonpecuniary components of income in the form of services of environmental assets and of human activities that protect and enhance the environment. Therefore, an important research frontier in regional forecasting and simulation modeling should be the incorporation of environmental assets into input-output and econometric models. Despite its importance, however, work on integrated economic-environmental models has lagged after a spurt of model building in the 1970s. I discuss the importance of the topic and a number of issues that arise in building such integrated models. Specific topics include: theoretical principles that should guide the research; a general matrix framework that accounts for flows within the economy and between the economy and environmental media, and that identifies “environment-improving industries” as separate sectors; possibilities for applying principles of environmental benefit-cost analysis to regional forecasting and simulation models; and important conclusions for regional modeling research. The paper is wholly theoretical; while it presents what one might call a “model of a model”, it has no operational model or empirical specifications.
7 citations
TL;DR: 111 time series were used to evaluate five procedures for combining individual forecasts produced by different techniques and results indicate that each of the five combinations can potentially result in improved forecast accuracy.
Abstract: The Makridakis et al. (J. Forecasting 1, 111–153, 1982 [1]) 111 time series were used to evaluate five procedures for combining individual forecasts produced by different techniques. The five combinations considered were a simple average forecast, the median forecast, two versions of focus forecasting (Smith and Wright. Focus Forecasting: Computer Techniques for Inventory Control, 1978 [2]) and a procedure developed by Bunn (Opn. Res. Q. 26, 325 329, 1975 [3]) and Bunn and Kappos (Eur. J. Opn. Res. 9, 173-18O, 1982 [4]). Results indicate that each of the five combinations can potentially result in improved forecast accuracy. The conditions under which each combination will he most likely to improve forecast accuracy are discussed.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared results obtained from two social accounting matrices (SAMs) for The Netherlands; one for 1978 and one for 1981, and a multiplier analysis was carried out to illustrate the effects of exogenous changes in injections and transfers on output growth and income distribution.
Abstract: The paper compares results obtained from two social accounting matrices (SAMs) for The Netherlands; one for 1978 and one for 1981. For each SAM, a multiplier analysis is carried out to illustrate the effects of exogenous changes in injections and transfers on output growth and income distribution. The multipliers are compared over time and the performance of the economy over the period is decomposed into endogenous and exogenous forces.
TL;DR: A rather different zero-one integer programming model is employed to solve the problem of assigning faculty members to teach various courses in an accounting department to take into consideration the learning curve phenomenon, various competing needs and institutional constraints at very little cost.
Abstract: We analyze the problem of assigning faculty members to teach various courses in an accounting department. Often difficulties arise due to conflicting choices of course preference, scheduling preference in terms of time, etc. Based on selected evaluation information, we employ a rather different zero-one integer programming model to solve the assignment problem. This approach has the advantage of utilizing readily available evaluation or outcome assessment data to take into consideration the learning curve phenomenon, various competing needs and institutional constraints at very little cost. It can be easily implemented for the public institutions to which outcome assessment measures are administered on a regular basis.
TL;DR: The procedures used in the U.S.A. in constructing recent regional tables based on both full and limited surveys are compared and the construction procedures for a commodity-by-industry table in Nova Scotia are examined.
Abstract: This paper contrasts the industry-by-industry accounting scheme used in most survey-based regional input-output tables to the standardized, or commodity-by-industry, format proposed by the United Nations It outlines and compares the procedures used in the USA in constructing recent regional tables based on both full and limited surveys and then, more specifically, examines the construction procedures for a commodity-by-industry table in Nova Scotia
TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of the Central Business District serving a regional population of 250,000 indicates that an adjustment to the penalties would benefit the community by about $100,000 per year.
Abstract: Because cities incur great expense in recovering parking fines, a schedule of inducements for prompt payment should progressively rise with any delay to reflect the increasing cost of administration. A person's choice of time for payment thus becomes acceptable from a political and economic standpoint. The pejorative notion of punishment is mitigated. An analysis of the Central Business District serving a regional population of 250,000 indicates that an adjustment to the penalties would benefit the community by about $100,000 per year. Initial increments should be reduced, and the later ones increased. A vehicle would be impounded on the next violation if the owner has failed to respond to a summons to appear at Court, or has failed to pay a Court-ordered fine.
TL;DR: A decision support system (DSS) that aids electric utility companies in selecting and designing appropriate sampling plans that adapts sophisticated statistical techniques to address all aspects of the sampling procedure.
Abstract: Confidence interval estimation of customer demand for electricity plays a vital role in the capacity and financial planning of electric utility companies. Inaccurate or inadequate estimation could severely affect the economic efficiency of these companies. Selecting the appropriate sampling procedure is, in turn, critical to ensuring success in the accurate estimation of electrical demand. Because of the nature and diversity of demand for electricity, however, classical sampling procedures have to be extensively modified. This paper describes a decision support system (DSS) that aids electric utility companies in selecting and designing appropriate sampling plans. The DSS adapts sophisticated statistical techniques to address all aspects of the sampling procedure.
TL;DR: The conclusion is that within the community studied there is strong evidence of a significant lack of such common purpose in the system of care for HIV infected people.
Abstract: This paper assumes that the effectiveness and efficiency of an integrated community system of care for HIV infected people may depend to a large extent on common perceptions of the objectives of such a system among three sets of actors—the patient, the professional care manager, and the continual care giver. It discusses a decision analytic inquiry into that concurrence on objectives. The conclusion is that within the community studied there is strong evidence of a significant lack of such common purpose.
TL;DR: This article studies the variation in physician practice style among geographic regions and across time in terms of adaptation to resource constraint and nonspecific style.
Abstract: This article studies the variation in physician practice style among geographic regions and across time. A physician practice profile is defined and a simple model for profile variation is developed. Ratios are calculated for the components of the profile--ambulatory visit rate, hospitalization rate and length of hospitalization--and studied in terms of adaptation to resource constraint and nonspecific style. The methods are applied to hospital use in the Census Metropolitan Areas of Canada.
TL;DR: Correlation analyses of key exogenous variables indicated that the larger sized hospitals utilized computerized methodologies and had the highest measures of perceived need for, and actual practice of, formal forecasting programs.
Abstract: A comprehensive literature review of forecasting methodologies and their specific applications to managing hospital services demand provided a credible base for the ensuing study of current forecasting usage. A sample of 40 hospitals was analyzed to measure the current perceived urgency to utilize forecasting systems. These findings were then compared with perceived actual usage. The incidence of formal forecasting systems actually being utilized was lower than the perceived need to use such systems. Identification of principal methodologies utilized and an assessment of computer-assisted forecasting indicated that a strong reliance on qualitative, manually-derived methodologies still remains. Correlation analyses of key exogenous variables indicated that the larger sized hospitals utilized computerized methodologies and had the highest measures of perceived need for, and actual practice of, formal forecasting programs.
TL;DR: Combining conventional with some not-so-conventional techniques, population projections are developed for 351 geographic units, as well as 108 demographic categories, which are currently in use in a large variety of public and private planning activities.
Abstract: There is an urgent and growing need for population projections that are not only detailed by geographic unit, but are also detailed by demographic characteristics. A high level of disaggregation allows the planner considerable flexibility to aggregate the projected data in a variety of geographic and demographic configurations. This study reports on the methodology and results of the Massachusetts experience in developing detailed population projections. Combining conventional with some not-so-conventional techniques, population projections are developed for 351 geographic units, as well as 108 demographic categories. The projections are currently in use in a large variety of public and private planning activities.
TL;DR: This paper demonstrates how microcomputer-based decision analysis and decision support techniques can be used to structure and simulate a complex political decision process in the area of international negotiations.
Abstract: Quantitative models and computer-based decision analysis are rarely used to support complex political decision processes. Dynamic models that will encompass both the objective and subjective factors affecting any political decision are needed, and decision makers must be able to understand and interact with computer-based support systems. This paper demonstrates how microcomputer-based decision analysis and decision support techniques can be used to structure and simulate a complex political decision process in the area of international negotiations. The decision analysis tool of influence diagrams and the mathematical technique of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are applied to the Camp David negotiations between Egypt and Israel. The theory of influence diagrams is discussed and the influence diagram analysis software package DAVID is used to create the logic structure of the Camp David negotiations based upon the historical record. The theory of AHP is discussed and the AHP-based software package EXPERT CHOICE is used to replicate the subjective value judgments of the Camp David negotiators. An interaction scheme between the two methods is constructed which enables negotiators to explore the logic of a negotiating problem, to promote a common understanding of the impending negotiations, and to explore trade-offs between alternative proposals.
TL;DR: The Pennsylvania Coal Model (PCM) illustrates some of the potentials and difficulties of energy modeling with a high degree of spatial and sectoral resolution.
Abstract: Within the broad goals of modeling, the purpose, scope, spatial dimensionality and resolution, temporal dimensionality and resolution, and methodology are used to characterize energy models. Examples are provided for a number of intersecting model categories, including energy models developed by American geographers. The Pennsylvania Coal Model (PCM) illustrates some of the potentials and difficulties of energy modeling with a high degree of spatial and sectoral resolution. Development, applications, and limitations of the PCM are noted. Particular challenges to energy modeling are outlined.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a historical overview of urbanization in Bulgaria, showing that up to the end of World War II, Bulgaria remained a largely rural dominated nation in which agriculture contributed about 80% of the national income.
Abstract: This paper presents a historical overview of urbanization in Bulgaria. Up to the end of World War II, Bulgaria remained a largely rural dominated nation in which agriculture contributed about 80% of the national income. Postwar reconstruction, especially in the farm sector, has caused dramatic changes in the national settlement structure. Contemporary urbanization processes, specifically the formation of urban agglomerations, exert widespread effects throughout Bulgaria since it is a relatively small nation.
TL;DR: In this article, the structural change in the regional economy is analyzed by employing two survey-data regional input-output models, which were constructed 20 years apart, and changes in coefficients and multipliers are included in the analysis.
Abstract: Employing two survey-data regional input-output models, which were constructed 20 years apart, the structural change in the regional economy is analyzed. Changes in coefficients and multipliers are included in the analysis.
TL;DR: In this paper, a simple regression model is developed to estimate the number of servers necessary to cover a region, and the model is shown to be a convenient technique for quickly estimating the number required to cover the region while exhibiting an error distribution that is conservatively biased towards overestimation.
Abstract: A simple regression model is developed to estimate the number of servers necessary to cover a region. Data for the model were obtained within a research design that included five replications of 180 experimental conditions. A total of 300 rectangular regions were generated, and a set covering location problem was solved for each region using three distance metrics. Statistical results established coverage radius, compactness, and the number of nodes in the region to be significant factors. The resulting regression model was applied to a South Carolina county. Its estimates are seen to be very close to the number of units needed to cover. The model is shown to be a convenient technique for quickly estimating the number of servers while exhibiting an error distribution that is conservatively biased towards overestimation. This last property is desirable for public emergency services.
TL;DR: In this paper, recent advances in academic study and public policy in Bulgaria focusing attention on the environmental effects of social and economic activity are captured in the concept of "ecologization".
Abstract: This paper conveys recent advances in academic study and public policy in Bulgaria focusing attention on the environmental effects of social and economic activity. The general thrust of these advances are captured in the concept of “ecologization”. Ecologization can be defined as an approach, or way of understanding, a wide variety of social and economic activities that from the start take into account environmental impacts and preservation.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provided additional evidence on whether indirect or direct ARIMA point forecasts of defined variables are better than indirect point forecasts for seven monthly real or constant-dollar economic variables for the postwar US over the period 1959-1986.
Abstract: This paper provides additional evidence on whether indirect or direct autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIMA) model point forecasts of defined variables are better Seven monthly real or constant-dollar economic variables for the postwar US over the period 1959–1986 are examined The variables include three real ex-post interest rates on government securities of varying maturity, two real monetary aggregates, a real wage, and a real foreign exchange rate Univariate ARIMA models are identified and estimated for the within-sample period from January 1959 to December 1982 using the techniques of Box and Jenkins Out-of-sample, updated, one-step-ahead tbrecasis are then made for the period January 1983 to December 1986 in order to compare the post-sample accuracy of the indirect and direct forecasts The criteria of mean absolute error, mean squared error, and mean percentage error are used to evaluate forecast accuracy In contrast to the findings of Kang, the results show that direct forecasts generally perform heller than indirect forecasts for the set of defined variables examined
TL;DR: Concerns are raised about the current climate for development of effective AIDS education programs and other policies for rank-and-file workers in many local government settings.
Abstract: Public and private sector organizations increasingly are being faced with problems arising from AIDS in the workplace. As with the AIDS epidemic generally, experts have stressed the need for organizations to mount educational programs to combat the spread of AIDS and the fear it engenders. Support of top management and leadership are considered essential for the effectiveness of AIDS education programs in the workplace. This paper presents the survey findings of a national probability sample of local government personnel officers, persons who are likely to be key actors in the development and implementation of AIDS education and counseling efforts in their municipalities. Responses to the mail questionnaire indicate that there is considerable AIDS awareness among municipal personnel officers, but that there also exist strong negative altitudes toward persons with AIDS and an unwillingness to interact socially with these people, even in workplace situations where there is no threat of transmission of the AIDS virus. These findings raise concerns about the current climate for development of effective AIDS education programs and other policies for rank-and-filc workers in many local government settings.