Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2004"

TL;DR: An overview of the origins of technology roadmapping is provided by means of a brief review of the technology and knowledge management foundations of the technique in the context of the fields of technology strategy and technology transitions.

TL;DR: Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers, to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a systematic approach to identify disruptive technologies that is realistic and operable and takes advantage of the text mining literature, which is especially useful in identifying potential disruptive technologies, that may require the input from many diverse technological and management areas.

TL;DR: In this paper, the utility of traditional technology roadmapping tools in an international industrial road mapping effort focusing on microtechnology and top-down nanotechnology is investigated, and a model for an industrial worldwide disruptive technology road mapping process is generated.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a heuristic approach for making new product development choices, which enables firms to forecast technologies and markets, and hence, new product priorities in the longer term.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore how technology roadmaps can support virtual innovation and innovation factories and how knowledge of patterns of technological evolution can be incorporated into technology road maps to detect opportunities for innovation and possible market limitations, and how agent models can provide the basis for simulation and possibly for self-organization.

TL;DR: The results tend to support the conjecture that spatial clustering generates higher long-run knowledge growth rates in industries characterized by highly tacit knowledge, while the opposite is true when the degree of codification is important.

TL;DR: The authors investigated individual opinion change and judgmental accuracy in Delphi-like groups and found that the accuracy of judgmental probability forecasts increases over Delphi rounds when statistical summaries or written rationales are provided from other members of an individual's nominal group, but does not increase in a control iteration condition (without feedback).

TL;DR: In this article, an integrated management model (IMM) and road-mapping approach is proposed to overcome challenges introduced by the multidimensional characteristics and complex nature of foresight studies.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyze R&D portfolios in environmentally friendly automotive propulsion including alternative fuel options and argue that substitution of conventional car technology by a new automotive propulsion technology may lead to premature lock-in of suboptimal technology.

TL;DR: The results show that the economic situation has affected the relative growth rate, and that the wireless network coverage has affect the number of potential adopters, and a forecast with a confidence interval of wireless communications subscriber rates in Finland is made.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore how resistance may shrink market size and explore an approach that undermines the effect of resistance leaders through the direct activation of positive opinion leaders prior to the initiation of unfocused marketing efforts.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors used the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis to investigate whether the self-rating of experts is an appropriate method for selecting experts and whether the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems.

TL;DR: A heuristic methodology, based on observations of past patterns of change across several complex, technology-based, subsystem-level industries, is presented for the identification of potentially disruptive technologies.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify critical success factors (CSFs) for electronic commerce, investigate the explanatory power of these CSFs on firm performance, and compare differences in evaluating CSFs and explaining impact of CSFs.

TL;DR: The question of the day is how to realize new “killer apps” to stimulate a new round of growth in the digital economy, including interactive video-on-demand and telecalls/teleconferencing.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT) on government departments/agencies and the contribution of external agents to change and development programs, and present empirical evidence of externally facilitated change to mindsets and patterns of behavior within local government through use of scenario planning-based approach.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, and explore the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method.

TL;DR: In this paper, a quantitative approach is proposed to help high-tech firms to understand their position in the technology adoption life cycle using some of the principles and tools of Chaos and Complexity theories.

TL;DR: In this paper, a key factor governing institutional elasticity is how institutions integrate IT, since IT functionality is intimately connected with institutional dynamics, unlike simple manufactured products such as refrigerators, IT's specific functionality is formed through dynamic interaction with institutional systems.

TL;DR: Based on an indicator measuring the technological level of aircraft, this paper showed that in the aircraft industry, firms are obliged to deal not only with high technological barriers, but growing financial and market barriers, too.

TL;DR: Comparing the work of the Wireless World Research Forum with well-known government-initiated foresight exercises points to conditions under which policy interventions may not be needed for the emergence of foresight activities that exert a major influence on RTD agendas.

TL;DR: In this article, a model for forecasting the likely market size and demand for an early-stage emerging process technology is considered, taking into account markets, supply, demand, supply/demand gap, pricing, implications to government policy, corporate strategy, and value of intellectual property.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the Indian government's institutional support for domestic technology, namely, overall policy framework, availability of skilled manpower and financial instruments, such as tax incentives, research grants, concessional loans and venture capital.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors demonstrate how these different categories of innovations, i.e., modularization and new business model creation, can be measured, and demonstrate how the creation of new business models has followed technical innovations.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated whether the incidences of M&A are influenced by the firms' R&D activity, measured by the calculated research stock in all industries.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyze the evolution of research in U.S. higher education and find two major trends: an increasing diversity in the number of institutions of different types other than universities, and a steady and continuous public funding of the leading universities.