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A quantum probability explanation for violations of ‘rational’ decision theory

Emmanuel M. Pothos, +1 more
- 22 Jun 2009 - 
- Vol. 276, Iss: 1665, pp 2171-2178
TLDR
It is argued that quantum probability provides a better framework for modelling human decision-making and is compared with an equivalent Markov model and it is shown that the latter is unable to account for violations of the sure thing principle.
Abstract
Two experimental tasks in psychology, the two-stage gambling game and the Prisoner's Dilemma game, show that people violate the sure thing principle of decision theory. These paradoxical findings have resisted explanation by classical decision theory for over a decade. A quantum probability model, based on a Hilbert space representation and Schrodinger's equation, provides a simple and elegant explanation for this behaviour. The quantum model is compared with an equivalent Markov model and it is shown that the latter is unable to account for violations of the sure thing principle. Accordingly, it is argued that quantum probability provides a better framework for modelling human decision-making.

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Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling

TL;DR: The thesis is that quantum probability theory provides a more accurate and powerful account of certain cognitive processes than classical probability theory, and this work discusses ways in which QP and CP theories converge.
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TL;DR: A selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics--from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present is presented and the 'Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis' is formulated to reconcile the pervasive presence of 'noise traders' with the near efficiency of financial markets.
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Concepts and Their Dynamics: A Quantum‐Theoretic Modeling of Human Thought

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyze different aspects of quantum modeling approach of human concepts and focus on the quantum effects of contextuality, interference, entanglement, and emergence, illustrating how each of them makes its appearance in specific situations of the dynamics of human concept and their combinations and point out the relation of their approach, which is based on an ontology of a concept as an entity in a state changing under influence of a context.
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A Quantum Question Order Model Supported by Empirical Tests of an A Priori and Precise Prediction

TL;DR: It is concluded that quantum probability theory, initially invented to explain order effects on measurements in physics, appears to be a powerful natural explanation for order effects of self-report measures in social and behavioral sciences, too.
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Physics and financial economics (1776–2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models

TL;DR: The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics.
References
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