Assessing the Invasion by Soybean Aphid (Homoptera: Aphididae): Where Will It End?

TLDR: Two methods of climate comparison suggest that the aphid may ultimately be present in all soybean producing areas of the United States, however, the severity of infestations within these areas is likely to vary considerably in space and time.

Abstract: The invasion of soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, into soybean (Glycine max L.) production areas of the northcentral United States has generated substantial concern over the ultimate impact of this pest on domestic agriculture. To evaluate the potential extent and severity of its invasion in the United States, we examined possible pathways for the arrival of the insect, considered the likelihood for establishment in different regions of the United States, and described patterns of spread. Historical records of aphid interceptions by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service suggest that populations of soybean aphid most likely arrived in the United States from Japan or China, either carried by an international airline passenger or associated with horticultural cargo. Two methods of climate comparison suggest that the aphid may ultimately be present in all soybean producing areas of the United States. However, the severity of infestations within these areas is likely to vary considerably in space and time.