China's Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050

TLDR: Zhou et al. as mentioned in this paper presented a China Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050 (CEE- 2050) with the aim of reducing carbon emissions in China by 2040.

Abstract: E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050 Nan Zhou, David Fridley, Michael McNeil, Nina Zheng, Jing Ke, and Mark Levine China Energy Group Energy Analysis Department Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory February 2011 This work was supported by the China Sustainable Energy Program of the Energy Foundation through the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

Figures

Figure 4 Historical and Projected Urban Appliance Penetration Trends

Figure 62 Transport CO2 Emission Reduction under AIS by Fuel Source

Figure 43 International trends in CO2 emissions and GDP per capita, with China 2050 scenarios

Table 4 Key Assumptions of Power Sector Scenarios

Figure 5 Efficiency Trends for Refrigerators Figure 6 Efficiency Trends for Air Conditioners

Figure 9 Retail Buildings Energy Intensity by End-Use

Full text

China’s Energy and Carbon
Emissions Outlook to 2050
Nan Zhou, David Fridley, Michael McNeil, Nina Zheng,
Jing Ke, and Mark Levine
China Energy Group
Energy Analysis Department
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
February 2011
This work was supported by the China Sustainable Energy Program of the
Energy Foundation through the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract
No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.
ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE
BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY

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i
Table of Contents
List of Tables .......................................................................................................... iii
List of Figures .......................................................................................................... iv
Abstract .................................................................................................................... vi
Executive Summary .............................................................................................. vii
Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1
Drivers of Energy Demand ..................................................................................... 2
Scenarios ......................................................................................................................................... 2
Continued Improvement Scenario (in energy and carbon intensity) .............................................. 2
Accelerated Improvement Scenario (in energy and carbon intensity) ............................................ 3
Continued Improvement with CCS Scenario .................................................................................... 3
Macro Economic Drivers ................................................................................................................. 4
Key Drivers ....................................................................................................................................... 4
Sensitivities ...................................................................................................................................... 5
Drivers of Residential Energy Demand ........................................................................................... 6
Key Drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 6
Sensitivities ...................................................................................................................................... 9
Drivers of Commercial Energy Demand ........................................................................................ 10
Key Drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 10
Sensitivities .................................................................................................................................... 13
Drivers of Industrial Energy Demand ............................................................................................ 14
Key Drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 14
Sensitivities .................................................................................................................................... 18
Drivers of Transportation Energy Demand ................................................................................... 19
Key Drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 19
Sensitivities .................................................................................................................................... 23
Drivers of Transformation Sector ................................................................................................. 24
Fossil Fuel Power Generation ........................................................................................................ 24
Non-Fossil Fuels and Renewables .................................................................................................. 26
Sensitivities .................................................................................................................................... 27
Drivers of Energy Extraction ......................................................................................................... 28
Coal Mining .................................................................................................................................... 28
Oil and Natural Gas Extraction ....................................................................................................... 29

ii
Coking ............................................................................................................................................ 30
Oil Refining ..................................................................................................................................... 31
Aggregated National Results ................................................................................. 32
Energy Consumption ..................................................................................................................... 32
Carbon Emissions .......................................................................................................................... 37
Coal ............................................................................................................................................... 41
Oil .................................................................................................................................................. 42
Electricity ....................................................................................................................................... 43
Sectoral Results ..................................................................................................... 43
Residential Buildings ..................................................................................................................... 43
Commercial Buildings ................................................................................................................... 45
Industry ......................................................................................................................................... 47
Transportation .............................................................................................................................. 49
Power Generation ......................................................................................................................... 55
Energy Extraction .......................................................................................................................... 58
Uncertainties ................................................................................................................................. 60
Assumptions behind Fossil Energy Supply Scenarios ........................................ 63
Coal ............................................................................................................................................... 63
Oil .................................................................................................................................................. 65
Natural Gas ................................................................................................................................... 65
Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 66
Acknowledgments .................................................................................................. 67
References ............................................................................................................... 68

iii
List of Tables
Table 1 Key Assumptions of Two Scenarios .................................................................................................. 3
Table 2 Key Macroeconomic Parameters for All Scenarios .......................................................................... 5
Table 3 Cement Production and Energy Use Scenario Assumptions .......................................................... 15
Table 4 Key Assumptions of Power Sector Scenarios ................................................................................. 27
Table 5 Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios ......................................................................................................... 60

Frequently asked questions

Q1. What have the authors contributed in "China’s energy and carbon emissions outlook to 2050" ?

In this paper, the authors developed a China Energy Outlook through 2050 with 2020 and 2030 milestones that can be used to assess the role of energy efficiency, structural change in industry, and new supply options for transitioning China 's economy to a lower-GHG trajectory in the longer term, and to examine the challenge of meeting the shorter term goal in 2020.