Open Access
Dynamic bayesian networks: representation, inference and learning
Kevin Murphy,Stuart Russell +1 more
TLDR
This thesis will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in Dbns, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.Abstract:
Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning by Kevin Patrick Murphy Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Science University of California, Berkeley Professor Stuart Russell, Chair Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and bio-sequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linear-Gaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data. In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T ) time instead of O(T ), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T ) space instead of O(T ); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of applying Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.read more
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References
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TL;DR: There is a deep and useful connection between statistical mechanics and multivariate or combinatorial optimization (finding the minimum of a given function depending on many parameters), and a detailed analogy with annealing in solids provides a framework for optimization of very large and complex systems.
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Generalized Linear Models
Peter McCullagh,John A. Nelder +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a generalization of the analysis of variance is given for these models using log- likelihoods, illustrated by examples relating to four distributions; the Normal, Binomial (probit analysis, etc.), Poisson (contingency tables), and gamma (variance components).
Journal ArticleDOI
A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide an overview of the basic theory of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as originated by L.E. Baum and T. Petrie (1966) and give practical details on methods of implementation of the theory along with a description of selected applications of HMMs to distinct problems in speech recognition.
Book
Introduction to Algorithms
TL;DR: The updated new edition of the classic Introduction to Algorithms is intended primarily for use in undergraduate or graduate courses in algorithms or data structures and presents a rich variety of algorithms and covers them in considerable depth while making their design and analysis accessible to all levels of readers.