Journal ArticleDOI
Estimation of Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: the ARCH-M Model
TLDR
In this paper, an extension of the ARCH model was proposed to allow the conditional variance to be a determinant of the mean and is called ARCH-M. The model explains and interprets the recent econometric failures of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.Abstract:
The expectati on of the excess holding yield on a long bond is postulated to depend upon its conditional variance. Engle's ARCH model is extended to allow the conditional variance to be a determinant of the mean and is called ARCH-M. Estimation and infer ence procedures are proposed, and the model is applied to three interest rate data sets. In most cases the ARCH process and the time varying risk premium are highly significant. A collection of LM diagnostic tests reveals the robustness of the model to various specification changes such as alternative volatility or ARCH measures, regime changes, and interest rate formulations. The model explains and interprets the recent econometric failures of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: a new approach
TL;DR: In this article, an exponential ARCH model is proposed to study volatility changes and the risk premium on the CRSP Value-Weighted Market Index from 1962 to 1987, which is an improvement over the widely-used GARCH model.
Journal ArticleDOI
A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle.
TL;DR: In this article, the parameters of an autoregression are viewed as the outcome of a discrete-state Markov process, and an algorithm for drawing such probabilistic inference in the form of a nonlinear iterative filter is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Expected stock returns and volatility
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the relation between stock returns and stock market volatility and found that the expected market risk premium (the expected return on a stock portfolio minus the Treasury bill yield) is positively related to the predictable volatility of stock returns.
Journal ArticleDOI
ARCH modeling in finance: A review of the theory and empirical evidence
TL;DR: An overview of some of the developments in the formulation of ARCH models and a survey of the numerous empirical applications using financial data can be found in this paper, where several suggestions for future research, including the implementation and tests of competing asset pricing theories, market microstructure models, information transmission mechanisms, dynamic hedging strategies, and pricing of derivative assets, are also discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator and related test statistics in dynamic models that jointly parameterize conditional means and conditional covariances, when a normal log-likelihood is maximized but the assumption of normality is violated.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation
TL;DR: In this article, a new class of stochastic processes called autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) processes are introduced, which are mean zero, serially uncorrelated processes with nonconstant variances conditional on the past, but constant unconditional variances.
Book ChapterDOI
The variation of certain speculative prices
TL;DR: The classic model of the temporal variation of speculative prices (Bachelier 1900) assumes that successive changes of a price Z(t) are independent Gaussian random variables as discussed by the authors.
Posted Content
The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices
TL;DR: In this paper, a new model of price behavior in speculative markets is proposed, which is a generalization of the continuous random walk of Bachelier process applied to InZ(t) instead of Z(t), where the Gaussian distribution is replaced throughout by another family of probability laws referred to as stable Paretian.
Posted Content
Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models
Journal ArticleDOI
The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure
TL;DR: This paper showed that long rates show a tendency to fall when they are high relative to short rates rather than rise as predicted by expectations models, and that the volatility of actual long-term interest rates, as measured by the variance of short-term holding yields on longterm bonds, appears to exceed limits imposed by the models.