Journal ArticleDOI
A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle.
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In this article, the parameters of an autoregression are viewed as the outcome of a discrete-state Markov process, and an algorithm for drawing such probabilistic inference in the form of a nonlinear iterative filter is presented.Abstract:
This paper proposes a very tractable approach to modeling changes in regime. The parameters of an autoregression are viewed as the outcome of a discrete-state Markov process. For example, the mean growth rate of a nonstationary series may be subject to occasional, discrete shifts. The econometrician is presumed not to observe these shifts directly, but instead must draw probabilistic inference about whether and when they may have occurred based on the observed behavior of the series. The paper presents an algorithm for drawing such probabilistic inference in the form of a nonlinear iterative filterread more
Citations
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Book ChapterDOI
Time Series Analysis
TL;DR: This paper provides a concise overview of time series analysis in the time and frequency domains with lots of references for further reading.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider the null hypothesis that a time series has a unit root with possibly nonzero drift against the alternative that the process is "trend-stationary" and show how standard tests of the unit root hypothesis against trend stationary alternatives cannot reject the unit-root hypothesis if the true data generating mechanism is that of stationary fluctuations around a trend function which contains a one-time break.
Posted Content
Comparing Predictive Accuracy
TL;DR: The authors describes the advantages of these studies and suggests how they can be improved and also provides aids in judging the validity of inferences they draw, such as multiple treatment and comparison groups and multiple pre- or post-intervention observations.
ReportDOI
Comparing Predictive Accuracy
TL;DR: In this article, explicit tests of the null hypothesis of no difference in the accuracy of two competing forecasts are proposed and evaluated, and asymptotic and exact finite-sample tests are proposed, evaluated and illustrated.
Journal ArticleDOI
ARCH modeling in finance: A review of the theory and empirical evidence
TL;DR: An overview of some of the developments in the formulation of ARCH models and a survey of the numerous empirical applications using financial data can be found in this paper, where several suggestions for future research, including the implementation and tests of competing asset pricing theories, market microstructure models, information transmission mechanisms, dynamic hedging strategies, and pricing of derivative assets, are also discussed.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing
TL;DR: The relationship between co-integration and error correction models, first suggested in Granger (1981), is here extended and used to develop estimation procedures, tests, and empirical examples.
Journal ArticleDOI
Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation
TL;DR: In this article, a new class of stochastic processes called autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) processes are introduced, which are mean zero, serially uncorrelated processes with nonconstant variances conditional on the past, but constant unconditional variances.
Journal ArticleDOI
Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: Some evidence and implications
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate whether macroeconomic time series are better characterized as stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend or as non-stationary processes that have no tendency to return to the deterministic path, and conclude that macroeconomic models that focus on monetary disturbances as a source of purely transitory fluctuations may not be successful in explaining a large fraction of output variation.
Journal ArticleDOI
A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation.
Trevor Breusch,Adrian Pagan +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a simple test for heteroscedastic disturbances in a linear regression model is developed using the framework of the Lagrangian multiplier test, and the criterion is given as a readily computed function of the OLS residuals.
Journal ArticleDOI
Estimation of Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: the ARCH-M Model
TL;DR: In this paper, an extension of the ARCH model was proposed to allow the conditional variance to be a determinant of the mean and is called ARCH-M. The model explains and interprets the recent econometric failures of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.
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