Journal ArticleDOI
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
TLDR
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? By Philip E. Tetlock as discussed by the authors is a political psychologist who has a knack for innovative research projects (e.g., his earlier work on how people cope with trade-offs in politics).Abstract:
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? By Philip E. Tetlock. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005. 352p. $45.00 cloth, $19.95 paper. This is a wonderful and important book. Philip Tetlock is a political psychologist who has a knack for innovative research projects (e.g., his earlier work on how people cope with trade-offs in politics). In this book, he addresses a question that would scare away more timid souls: How well do experts predict political and economic events?read more
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Why Propensity Scores Should Not Be Used for Matching
Gary King,Richard A. Nielsen +1 more
TL;DR: It is shown that propensity score matching (PSM), an enormously popular method of preprocessing data for causal inference, often accomplishes the opposite of its intended goal—thus increasing imbalance, inefficiency, model dependence, and bias.
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Mindful Judgment and Decision Making
Elke U. Weber,Eric Johnson +1 more
TL;DR: "Mindful"
Journal ArticleDOI
Too Much of a Good Thing The Challenge and Opportunity of the Inverted U
Adam M. Grant,Barry Schwartz +1 more
TL;DR: It is concluded that for psychology in general and positive psychology in particular, Aristotle’s idea of the mean may serve as a useful guide for developing both a descriptive and a prescriptive account of happiness and success.
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When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts
TL;DR: This article reported the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI and found that there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree.
Daniel Kahneman,Gary Klein +1 more
TL;DR: Evaluating the likely quality of an intuitive judgment requires an assessment of the predictability of the environment in which the judgment is made and of the individual's opportunity to learn the regularities of that environment.
Journal ArticleDOI
Why Propensity Scores Should Not Be Used for Matching
Gary King,Richard A. Nielsen +1 more
TL;DR: It is shown that propensity score matching (PSM), an enormously popular method of preprocessing data for causal inference, often accomplishes the opposite of its intended goal—thus increasing imbalance, inefficiency, model dependence, and bias.
Journal ArticleDOI
Too Much of a Good Thing The Challenge and Opportunity of the Inverted U
Adam M. Grant,Barry Schwartz +1 more
TL;DR: It is concluded that for psychology in general and positive psychology in particular, Aristotle’s idea of the mean may serve as a useful guide for developing both a descriptive and a prescriptive account of happiness and success.
Journal ArticleDOI
The functions and dysfunctions of hierarchy
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors take a critical look at a core implication of the functionalist perspective, namely, that steeper hierarchies help groups and organizations perform better than do flatter structures.