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Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks and Jobs: An Application to Brexit
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In this paper, the authors developed a network trade model with country-sector level input-output linkages, including domestic and global value chain linkages between all country-sectors, direct as well as indirect shipments (via other sectors and countries) to a final destination.Abstract:
We develop a network trade model with country-sector level input-output linkages. It includes (1) domestic and global value chain linkages between all country-sectors, (2) direct as well as indirect shipments (via other sectors and countries) to a final destination, (3) value added rather than gross trade flows. The model is solved analytically and we use the sectoral World Input Output Database (WIOD) to predict the impact of Brexit for every individual EU country by aggregating up the country-sector effects. In contrast to other studies, we find EU-27 job losses to be substantially higher than hitherto believed as a result of the closely integrated EU network structure. Upstream country-sectors stand to lose more from Brexit due to their network centrality in Europe.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
The Continental Divide? Economic Exposure to Brexit in Regions and Countries on Both Sides of The Channel
TL;DR: This article employed an extension of the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) with regional detail for EU countries to study the degree to which EU regions and countries are exposed to negative trade-related consequences of Brexit.
ReportDOI
The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
TL;DR: This article used tools from computational linguistics to construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world; these measures are based on the proportion of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on the costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK's intention to leave the EU.
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Who’s Who in Global Value Chains? A Weighted Network Approach
João Amador,João Amador,Sónia Cabral,Rossana Mastrandrea,Franco Ruzzenenti,Franco Ruzzenenti +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors represent global value chains (GVCs) as weighted networks of foreign value added in exports, which allows for the identification of the specific roles of countries and for quantification of their relative importance over time.
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The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the relative income and growth position of Northern Ireland within a UK and Irish regional framework over time and compare, and contrast, in detail aspects of the structure of both economies on the island of Ireland in the areas of educational attainment, trade orientation and the role of FDI.
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The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field experiment
Mustapha Douch,T. Huw Edwards +1 more
TL;DR: This paper analyzed the effects of uncertainty and anticipation shocks associated with the 2016 Brexit vote as a treatment on trade between the UK and 14 EU and 14 non-EU trading partners, using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM).