Health Disaster Management Guidelines for Evaluation and Research in the Utstein Style

TLDR: A conceptual model is proposed that uses a generic, non-quantitative, mathematical expression (formula) for relating the probability that damage will occur with specific hazards and with the risk posed by the hazard and vulnerabilities.

Abstract: The ultimate objective of disaster management is to bring the probability that damage will occur from an event as close to zero as is possible. A conceptual model is proposed that uses a generic, non-quantitative, mathematical expression (formula) for relating the probability that damage will occur with specific hazards and with the risk posed by the hazard and vulnerabilities. Actions are subdivided into those that are implemented before a hazard becomes an event and those provided as a response to an event that is occurring or has occurred. In the former category are those actions that either augment or mitigate vulnerability by increasing or decreasing the absorbing capacity and/or buffering capacity of the population/environment at risk for an event. Responses to an event either may be productive or counterproductive. Use of this “formula” in disaster planning and analysis should assist in identification of the essential elements that contribute to a disaster. For example, application of the formula should facilitate the development of understanding why the occurrence of similar events produce a disaster in one setting but not in another. Numerous examples of its application are provided.