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How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact
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In this article, the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4.Abstract:
This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4. Our results suggest that there are strong linkages between different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, notably house price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices tend to be stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of developments in credit and housing markets for the real economy.read more
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Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy : Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012, and find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies.
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In Search for a Credit Crunch in Germany
Torsten Schmidt,Lina Zwick +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated whether a credit crunch occurred in Germany during the recent financial crisis and analyzed the underlying factors, which suggests that the structure of the German banking sector as well as economic policy measures avoided a credit crisis.
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Was the U.S. Great Depression a Credit Boom Gone Wrong
TL;DR: The authors suggests that low general inflation and a slowdown in broad money growth in the 1920s masked the extent of the credit boom and a deterioration in the banking system's balance sheet, and points to macro-and micro-prudential tools as potentially more successful alternative measures to keep credit under control.
Building Blocks for Effective Macroprudential Policies in Latin America
TL;DR: The authors analyzes existing arrangements for financial stability in Latin America and examines key issues to consider when designing the institutional foundations for effective macro-prudential policies, focusing primarily on eight Latin American countries, where the institutional arrangements for monetary and financial policies can be classified in two distinct groups: the Pacific model that includes Chile, Colombia, Peru, Costa Rica, and Mexico, and the Atlantic model, comprising Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay.
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Business and Financial Cycles: an estimation of cycles’ length focusing on Macroprudential Policy
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors address the issue of estimating credit and business cycles' length using Bayesian Structural Time Series Models (STM) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) followed by Fourier-based Spectral Analysis.
References
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Book
General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
TL;DR: In this article, a general theory of the rate of interest was proposed, and the subjective and objective factors of the propensity to consume and the multiplier were considered, as well as the psychological and business incentives to invest.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity
TL;DR: The authors showed that bank deposit contracts can provide allocations superior to those of exchange markets, offering an explanation of how banks subject to runs can attract deposits, and showed that there are circumstances when government provision of deposit insurance can produce superior contracts.
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The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework
TL;DR: This article developed a dynamic general equilibrium model that is intended to help clarify the role of credit market frictions in business fluctuations, from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint, and the model is a synthesis of the leading approaches in the literature.
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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Carmen Reinhart,Kenneth Rogoff +1 more
TL;DR: This Time Is Different as mentioned in this paper presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes.
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Agency Costs, Net Worth, And Business Fluctuations
Ben S. Bernanke,Mark Gertler +1 more
TL;DR: The authors constructs a simple neoclassical model of intrinsic business cycle dynamics in which borrowers' balance sheet positions play an important role and shows that the agency costs of undertaking physical investments are inversely related to the entrepreneur's/borrower's net worth.